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Post-open Review… Surviving. – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open Review… Surviving.

Overnight drop rejected, barely.

The overnight drop has been rejected. The hours-long consolidation at this morning’s 2640.25 bias-down target had broken sharply lower to 2626.00. Price action around the low formed an Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern. My pre-open update in the chaRTroom noted the pattern’s potential to break falsely in one direction, and then reverse more substantially in the opposite direction.

But being an overnight pattern, its reversal had to develop during the opening 15 minutes of volatility. After that, the overnight pattern’s properties won’t apply intraday.

Greeting the open at the 2640.25 bias-down target, i.e. resistance, was the optimal opportunity for reversing back down. But it held. After not responding to resistance, the opening 15 minutes of volatility extended higher. Sellers were all but marginalized.

The 2649.00 bias-down signal’s test within 3 minutes of 10:15 invoked the grace period. Extending higher through 10:30 to 2654.00 has triggered “late no-bias.” Rejecting tests of both bias-down parameters puts into play offsetting tests of both 2663.00 and 2670.50 bias-up parameters. Their tests aren’t required, since the bias triggered late.

The gap back to yesterday’s 2655.00-2656.50 close may offer resistance. It’s also an attraction, and still likely to be probed up to at least 2663.00. Any more upside would be difficult, with the Zuckerberg hearing underway. Retracing or backing-and-filling would be credible, but not reversing the trend back down.