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Post-open Review… Sympathies. – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open Review… Sympathies.

Pre-open recovery finds NQ sympathy.

Not even minutes after sending out this morning’s pre-open Market Tour, a couple of earnings warnings and misses hit the tape. But not the market, which ticked higher, retesting yesterday’s 2642.75 cash session close. Higher highs were likely, and eventually touched 2647.50.

Pulling back to 2640.00 through the open was recovered into a congestion at even higher highs up to 2650.00. That didn’t prevent an even deeper drop to 2638.25. The 2645.00 bias-up signal held its test to trigger no-bias.

And then it didn’t. Although too late to trigger, a surge through 10:30 recovered 2645.00 in time to invalidate the bias signal. Neither bias signal is required to contain price action, the bias-up target isn’t in-play, and an offsetting test of the bias-down signal isn’t required.

But an offsetting test of the 2633.00 bias-down signal is now being probed down to 2629.50. That’s attacking the overnight low, which was a 61.8% retracement of yesterday’s intraday range. The turnabout is probably in sympathy with NQ’s which have plunged under yesterday’s lows.

ES rejected two post-open dips which normally suggests they be rewarded by another fresh high. That’s not required, but neither sponsorship is entirely credible this morning for maintaining control. Exiting the bias environment in rally mode would be bullish for a bigger bounce, but sellers get a benefit of the doubt otherwise.