Post-open Review… Tacking.

Overnight rally’s gain disappears, with consequences.

Extending 21-22 points highs overnight to attack 2680.00 had created a relative low at 2669.00. It was the reaction down from a fresh high that was, itself, recovered to a higher high. As I described during the Market Tour, there was no bullish reason to revisit it. Not holding its test through the open would be difficult to recover, if not also signal momentum reversing down.

It was already being probed before the open, down to 2666.00. The open’s blip-up attacked the 2671.00 bias-up target to within 1 tick, near enough in this environment to consider it tested. Its reaction down avoided triggering the 2663.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Offsetting tests of BOTH bias-down parameters was put into play.

The signal has been productive since triggering, extending down to 2652.50 through the first hour. This didn’t prevent a bounce to 12-point 2664.50, but that doesn’t invalidate the bias signal. Which is exactly the point of the signal, to identify the contextual bias — that bounces are likely to resolve down.

So, the latest bounce is trying to resolve down now. Back above 2666.00 when the bias environment begins lapsing at 11:30 would give the recovery another chance. But meanwhile the likely resolution is down, to test 2648.75 if not also 2637.75.