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Post-open review… That damned leg. – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open review… That damned leg.

Complete recovery completes.

The recovery back to unchanged got no further. Rallying to the open didn”t rally through the open, which plunged from 2059.00 to 2040.00. The reaction up held a test of the 2048.00 bias-down target”s resistance through 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal. But its renewed bias down target had been met already.

A dip seemed on its way to retesting oversold RSIs at the low, but fell only to 2043.00. I did not anticipate price inflecting back up there — not at all, and certainly not through 2048.00 back to 2054.00. Its reaction down to 2050.00 is now recovered to attack 2054.00.

The leg that preceded it — that damned leg, the surge from 2044.50.– can still be rejected by extending under 2050.00 to  2046.50. Any lower would target fresh lows at 2039.00, 2037.50 and potentially 2030.50.

Otherwise, that damned leg can reject the market. It”s rare that price action doesn”t align with my signals in such a big way, and we don”t learn shortly of the external forces behind it.

Exiting the bias environment in positive territory is the only bottoming signal not requiring a retest of the low. And its follow-through would be substantial.