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Post-open Review… The buys have it. – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open Review… The buys have it.

At least two bullish setups triggered.

Yesterday’s failure to close above 2897.00 was done by proxy. Exiting the next relevant window recovering the next relevant level — today’s opening 15 minutes of volatility, above yesterday afternoon’s 2903.00 last relative high.

Pre-open action had jeopardized the setup. Already touching 2903.00 overnight, and eventually probing it by 1 point, another trade war headline triggered a drop to 2895.50. But that allowed us to identify an immediately actionable buy signal above 2901.25 that triggered on the way up to this morning’s 2907.50 bias-up target. Proxy success.

Its reaction down touched this morning’s 2901.50 bias-up signal as a detached bar. That launched another surge to fresh highs attacking 2909.00. The 2907.50 bias-up target wasn’t exceeded in time to renew the bias-up signal. But this is still a bias-up environment, so the 2901.50 bias-down signal should define its low if retested, and extending higher would next target 2912.25.

Of course, the Isolation setup is forming, so long as this morning avoids probing under yesterday’s low. Its minimum objective is to retrace the origin of the pullback’s isolated low, which is Friday’s highs — including the 2917.25 “new Globex trend extreme.”

Similar to last week’s Rosh Hashanah holiday, tomorrow’s Yom Kippur observance will dampen volume and liquidity. That effect will begin this afternoon as participants leave early today for evening services. So, more important to the rally is not whether it extends, but how the afternoon is greeted, which we’ll review later.