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Post-open Review… Thin air up here. – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open Review… Thin air up here.

Open’s surge finds more resistance at prior high.

es_060816_amThe open’s surge all but confirmed that the two hours of pre-open consolidation were designed to conserve energy for trying to resume the rally. The minimum objective of retesting yesterday’s 2118.00 high was fulfilled, to within 1 tick of its room for noise up to 2119.00.

Then a sharp reaction down to 2112.00 all but confirmed the high’s retest was intended to seal a top. The 2114.75 bias-up signal’s test ultimately held after invoking the grace period, but it’s being retested now. Back above 2116.25 could probe fresh highs, even testing this morning’s 2120.25 bias-up target.

Resuming the rally today is no more likely than it was yesterday — for the same reasons, and more. Meanwhile, attempts to extend the rally are no less likely either, as topping forms. Wreversal Wednesday’s template only  requires that the afternoon makes obvious its rejection of the morning’s trending.

Closing today above 2119.00 would be credible for extending the rally, regardless of the topping potential. And probably steeply, needing to become detached quickly from that topping potential.