Post-open Review… Why this time may be different.

Slowness to extend gap up may be its strongest element.

I noted earlier the three immediate prior sessions. Their gaps up were ultimately reversed, but not before extending higher during the open and opening hour.

Today’s gap up to 2065.00-2065.75 quickly extended higher, probing the 2069.25 overnight high by more than 1 point during the first half-hour. Quickly extending higher didn’t translate into an uptrend, and the first hour really only ranged narrowly between 2067.25-2069.75.

And now a break lower is touching a fresh post-open low at 2064.00. Is the three-session streak turning into four?

Probably not. One obvious difference between today’s gap up reversal is its origin. The three immediate prior sessions had been contained within the range. Today’s high probed all prior highs first. That allows more room for selling without it damaging the chart.

As for that selling, its 2064.00 target was just touched. Whether or not it’s retested, the most bullish scenario at this stage of the pattern would keep pullbacks shallow. Filling the gap back down to yesterday’s close wouldn’t help to maintain the degree of optimism that upward momentum requires.

Back above 2966.75 (being tested now) would start to signal the pullback was done, and that momentum was beginning to reverse up. Having stopped pessimistically short of touching last week’s 2071.50 “new Globex trend extreme,” the open’s 2070.50 peak probably won’t be able to offer much resistance.

Otherwise, exiting the bias environment under its 2062.25 bias-up target would suggest that buyers are done. Especially with Crude Oil already having met and held its target yesterday, a downleg would unfold quickly.