Post-open Review… ‘Tis the season of giving back.

Retracement resumes post-open.

The overnight drop back down to 2422.50 had retraced yesterday’s final hour 55-point surge. Consolidating there formed an Ascending Triangle, vulnerable to a false break higher that then capitulates lower.

Except, breaking higher and/or capitulating lower would depend on already extending down before the opening 15 minutes of volatility had lapsed.

A post-open blip-up to attack 2446.00 was reacting down by 9:45, and has extended down to 2412.50. Both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs have avoided oversold territory, suggesting that sellers are being well-rewarded compared to the amount of force they’re exerting. Bias-down has renewed, and although not required, the next likely target is 2406.00.

RSIs not getting oversold means no positive divergences. That didn’t prevent bouncing back up to 2429.00, and violating the current bounce limit. But bounces that originate while RSIs aren’t getting oversold do tend to fail. Back above 2431.00 would start to signal otherwise.