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Post-open review… Too much of a good thing. – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open review… Too much of a good thing.

Extreme buying pressure attracts little sponsorship.

Gapping up above yesterday afternoon”s 2053.25 bias environment high would have formed a session-long rally setup. That threshold was raised to the morning”s 2058.00 bias environment high, once it was probed. Then yesterday”s 2063.75 pre-open high became part of the mix — not as consequential, but relevant.

All of which were exceeded before the open.

A blip-down to 2063.75 surged to a fresh high at 2068.00, which reacted back down to overlap 2063.75 at 9:45. Maintaining its recovery would have been optimal to confirming the session-long rally. But the open had maintained its gap up above yesterday morning”s 2058.00 bias environment high.

So, session-long rally gets a benefit of the doubt. The next opportunity to signal otherwise is at 11:30 upon the bias environment lapsing.

A sell signal had triggered already under 2064.00, with potential to 2058.00. Giving the session-long rally a benefit of the doubt didn”t prevent extending down to 2058.00 — or lower to 2053.75.

But, session-long rally still gets a benefit of the doubt.

Back above 2058.00 (being tested now) would start to signal momentum reversing up. Its minimum consequence is to retest the downleg”s 2068.00 origin. There”s no reason for that during a session-long rally other than to extend much higher.

Otherwise, extending the post-open drop would next target 2051.00. And this late in the session, that would probably not recover 2058.00 by 11:30. Which would instead signal the session-long rally had inverted.