Post-open Review… Treading water.

Payrolls reaction retraced, but not yet reversed.

The reaction up on Payrolls had attacked 1965.00 before reversing back down to 1944.00. The open’s “last gasp” bounce up to 1953.00 was retraced down to 1935.50 until the 10:15 bias timing window.

Rejecting tests of both the 1942.50 and 1948.00 bias-up parameters by 10:15 has put into play offsetting tests of both the 1927.25 and 1921.00 bias-down parameters.

Confidence could be greater. But only because optimism keeps popping-up. Literally.

• Absorbing the open’s gasp up to 1953.00 was only retraced to its 1944.00 pre-open low, not reversed under it.
• Fresh lows were recovered to test the 1942.50 bias-up signal as resistance at 10:30, almost recovering it in time to invalidate its earlier rejection.
• The pre-10:15 1935.50 still isn’t probed. Exiting the bias environment above prior highs can invalidate the bias signal.

The likelier scenario remains down. Continued optimism can only delay the destiny, at the cost of exacerbating its eventual effects. In that delay is potential for bouncing into the noon hour. Otherwise, fresh post-open lows — especially if probed aggressively — could extend down deeply into the afternoon.