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Post-open Review… Tried, tried again. – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open Review… Tried, tried again.

Another sell-off, another recovery.

Opening at this morning’s 2266.00 bias-up signal didn’t attract any strong-handed sponsorship. es_010617_amAt least, no buyers. Immediately plunging barely stopped until piercing the 2258.75 bias-down signal by 2 ticks.

Actually, the plunge did stop there. Bouncing nearly 4 points was largely retraced back to the low. Bouncing again recovered back up to 2266.00. Both bias signals held tests, so no offsetting test of the other bias signal is required. It is otherwise a normal no-bias environment.

The opening drop is a third sell-off thrown at the market, including Wednesday night’s choppy drift and yesterday morning’s EIA reaction. It’s also the third to recover completely. All of which is potentially bullish, if ever the recoveries’ ~2264.50 high were exceeded coming out of a timing window..

Hovering at or under session highs could launch a new upleg into and out of the noon hour. A dip to 2261.00 just retraced 61.8% of the bounce. That’s not hovering. But quickly recovering back up to the bounce’s highs — quickly — and then consolidating there would still be credible for launching an afternoon upleg.

Inhibition ahead of late-morning and early-afternoon Fed speakers could be responsible for a range-bound morning. They could also be the catalyst to breaking out either way. Late-afternoon Fed speakers will keep participants jumpy, too.