Post-open Review… Try, try (etc.)

Overnight strength fades, yesterday’s lows hold.

The problem with yesterday’s late rally was that it expended a lot of buying pressure without closing above a relevant level. It closed within proximity to a relevant level whose recovery through this morning’s open would have reversed the trend up. But that level was probed overnight and rejected well before the open.

Which might prove to be very bullish.

Yesterday’s double bottom had held a test of the 2814.50 objective that fulfilled the morning reversal’s selling pressure. It also held a test at this morning’s open. And that was after absorbing a probe under yesterday’s lows down to 2809.50. It was enough to launch another recovery attempt up to 2826.00. But not enough to avoid triggering bias-down.

Which might also prove to be very bullish.

Bias-down was delayed. Its 2818.50 was already tested, and now retested. Sellers are expending energy without gaining traction for their effort — more so, their selling pressure is being fulfilled. And unlike yesterday’s late 20-point surge, optimism is (relatively) restrained.

Firming into the afternoon would be bullish, albeit difficult to extend too much ahead of tomorrow’s payrolls and today’s post-close earnings onslaught. Potentially more bullish would be another downdraft that probes yet lower down to 2805.00 before recovering back above relevant levels today. Then the risk would be in not recovering.

Which might prove to be very bearish.