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Post-open Review… Two ways to skin that cat. – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open Review… Two ways to skin that cat.

There are two paths to higher prices.

The premise was that this morning wouldn’t trend down, and that the rally can resume. Influences included light volume and participation, and greeting the open from a bounce back into the 2088.00-2091.00 range instead of above or below it

That outlook had two possible templates — either to trigger bias-up, or to hold a test of the bias-down signal which would put into play an attraction back up to the bias-up signal.

It wasn’t the former.

The open dipped under 2088.00 to test this morning’s 2084.50 bias-down signal down to 2081.50. The grace period was invoked, but recovering to 2087.00 helped to trigger a late no-bias.

So, it might be the latter.

Late bias signals are less reliable than timely signals. But thinner participation hasn’t changed. It’s only gotten more so. If the opening crowd couldn’t break the range’s lower-end, post-open sponsorship is less likely. Price can rise without sponsorship, simply for gravitating back up to the bias-up signal’s resistance.

None of which dictates remaining long regardless. But the burden of proof is on sellers, which requires pullbacks to hold 2084.50.