Post-open Review… We warned them.

Pre-open buyers get carried away, get heads chopped off.

I described the bullish scenario in the pre-open Market Tour and First Trade post: Keep optimism in-check. Aggressive gaps up have been meeting a reliable pattern of significant intraday pushback. None so significant as today’s.

Opening under yesterday’s 2920.00 post-open high could have crept higher without enticing sellers. But the 2923.00 open was already above yesterday’s post-open high, and also above its 2921.25 pre-open high. The first bar’s dip back down to 2920.00 extended relentlessly back down to touch yesterday’s 2904.50 low.

The 2906.50 bias-down signal was overlapped at 10:15 to invoke the grace period, and ultimately held to trigger no-bias. Had sellers been patient to avoid touching 2906.50 so early, offsetting tests of BOTH bias-down parameters could have been put into play for having rejected tests of both bias-up parameters. Impatient sellers instead extended the pattern unsustainably, and now a bounce is targeting a test of the 2914.50 bias-up signal.

Being a late no-bias, the bounce is vulnerable to failure. The collapse was likely not only to touch yesterday’s low but to probe it, if not also Monday’s low. Back under 2907.25 would start to signal the decline is resuming. Meanwhile, extending the bounce above 2914.50 would target 2920.00 or higher.