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Post-open Review… Weak buying, weaker selling. – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open Review… Weak buying, weaker selling.

Pre-open surge’s reversal is recovered.

The pre-open surge above yesterday’s highs to 2079.50 was a singular leg. Lacking complexity, it was not a “new Globex trend extreme,” so it does not require intraday retest.

It was retraced back under yesterday’s high so the 2076.50 opening print did not qualify as a gap up. Strong-handed buyers wouldn’t have allowed that. This encouraged selling the open, which then extended down to 2071.75.

The 2077.00 bias-up signal was tested post-open but didn’t trigger at 10:15, putting into play a test of the 2068.25 bias-down signal. Without printing a fresh low after 10:15, exiting the bias environment above the bias-up signal would invalidate the bias-down signal’s test.

In fact, a buy signal triggered above 2075.00, already touching 2076.50. Extending any higher should probe the bias-up signal by either several ticks or by several points. Otherwise, back under 2074.00 would signal the bounce had failed, and resume the post-open decline targeting a test of overnight lows.