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Post-open Review… Well-managed surprise. – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open Review… Well-managed surprise.

Yellen’s pre-open release kept something on the table.

It wasn’t just scraps, but it’s now gone, nonetheless.

es_021016_amThe pre-open test of 1857.25 support was retested post-open down to the 1855.50 bias-up signal. Its support held, and the 1861.25 bias-up target was exceeded through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.

Friday’s “higher prior lows” around 1868.00 had not been tested post-open. But now overnight highs have been exceeded up to 1877.75.

Several fibonacci extensions clustered there to trigger my warning in the chaRTroom that a pullback had become likely. It had no particular expectations, whether shallow or deep, but it has proved to be the latter. Its 16-point reaction is testing 1859.40.

Meanwhile, the pre-open cooler from Yellen that was bullish from a contrarian perspective has been fulfilled. Even the gaps back up to Friday’s 1873.25 and 1875.50 closes have been filled.

Extending higher to 1881.00 and 1888.00 is not assured, but at least a bounce to 1868.00 is somewhat likely. Exiting the bias environment at 11:30 back under its 1861.25 bias-up target would undermine the upside momentum. Under the 1855.50 bias-up signal could reverse it down.

In case you haven’t yet grabbed it off the blog, here’s the link to this morning’s pre-market Tour.