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Post-open Review… We’ve got to stop rejecting like this. – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open Review… We’ve got to stop rejecting like this.

Same level’s test launches the same reaction down.

es_072716_amThe pattern plays out again — early test of the 2168.00 area, big reaction down. It’s playing out faster and faster. Will its next recovery stage play out faster, too?

Restrained optimism of the overnight flat-to-higher ranging had at least kept the door open to a morning rally. But there was no print above the first minute’s high. And the first minute’s high only touched the 2169.25 overnight high, testing the 2169.00 bias-up signal. Holding its test through 10:15 put into play an offsetting test of the 2158.00 bias-down signal. Which has already been met to within 1 tick.

Restrained optimism, meet impatient selling. Potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. Meanwhile, quite a bit of negative sentiment has been expressed already before this afternoon’s FOMC policy statement. Defensive posturing? Isn’t the Fed about to announce no rate hike again?

If the past week’s pattern is actually speeding up, then its recovery leg won’t wait until tomorrow. It might not wait for the afternoon’s news. Meanwhile, oversold RSIs at the low require a retest, although not necessarily before a recovery leg.