Post-open Review… What’s the hold-up.

Rolling front-month coverage forward to Mar this afternoon.

[Mar is trading at a ~2.50 premium to Dec] The overnight drop had extended down to 2626.50 (basis Dec) just before the open. RSIs didn’t get oversold, so the open’s retest didn’t diverge positively. That didn’t prevent rallying back to unchanged at 2629.25, and then extending higher to the 2631.75 bias-up signal.

Fluctuating around bias-up at 2629.50-2632.50 invoked the grace period. Bias-up triggered decisively at 10:30. And it has extended up to 2635.00 while taking RSIs overbought.

The bias-up target in-play is 2639.25 (2641.50 basis Mar). Just for having retested intraday yesterday’s “unfinished business above” at 2635.50 enables a sell signal to be productive — despite being short of the bias-up target.

I’m viewing this bounce as counter-trend, and likely to resolve down. Already testing the 2635.50 unfinished business above overnight has resolved down to open in negative territory. Triggering bias-up and retesting 2635.50 intraday don’t reinforce the bearish assumption. Regardless, entering the noon hour back under this morning’s bias-up signal would at least be likely to delay further upside.