Post-open review… Why this round-trip was HUGE.

Warning shot across the bow.

The pre-open bounce was likely to fail so long as 2104.25-2105.00 wasn”t recovered. Just touching 2104.25 was enough for a reaction down to 2099.00. Its 4-point reaction up failed to turn positive, which was enough for a 15-point plunge to 2088.25.

That was the room for noise under the 2090.00 renewed bias-down target, which was being recovered at 10:15. That”s not necessarily predictive, but it hasn”t prevented extending higher. And higher.

At this moment, a fresh high is probing 2104.25-2105.00. The bias environment lapsing at 11:30 is now within 10-15 minutes. Two bias-down targets and the bias-down signal may have been rejected going into the noon hour. Perhaps it is a little more pronounced, but nonetheless exactly the bullish setup I described this morning: holding the 2090.00-2095.25 band of support through relevant timing windows. 

If maintained, the market could be significantly higher this afternoon. By the same token, somehow not maintaining the rejection would then point much, much lower. Oversold RSIs are outstanding at the low.

Important note: Erroneous news of direct conflict between US and Iran may have triggered the extended drop. The news has since been retracted — or, at least, corrected. Regardless, we now have a new category of news for which reactions to its coming headlines can present buying opportunities. Like the Ukraine-Russia invasion and Grexit, significant buyers are now pricing into their purchases the Iran-US conflict risk and the Straits of Hormuz shutdown risk. Neither being insignificant, but no longer surprises.