Pre-close View… What could go wrong?

What could go wrong:

I joked in my last blog post that this may be the “Anti-antiTrump” rally. But that leg actually peaked before last Wednesday’s high retested it at 2212.00, launching a temporary correction down. The pullback’s lowest objective at 2181.00 was met Sunday night in reaction to Italy’s “no” vote. Opening Monday back above Friday’s lows isolated that probe of fresh lows to the overnight. Today’s test of 2235.00 is the result.

Trump’s rally seems to tower of the No-vote rally. Even if we include the No-vote’s 2179.00 low — without including election night’s 2029.00 low — that’s 56 points since Sunday night’s low, compared to 87 for Trump. The better pace is this week, just 3 days in and already two-thirds as productive as Trump’s 13-day run.

Of course, there’s nothing scientific about the comparison, and not much that is mathematical. Plus, we don’t need a rate-of-change indicator to tell us this week’s rally has been significantly steeper than the prior upleg.

Steeper, into new highs. New highs, into Thursday’s ECB policy meeting, and Mario Draghi’s press conference. His comments have a perfect track record for quite some time of launching steep price swings, often in multiple directions, during the same presser. Be careful.

As for the balance of this afternoon, the final hour just missed an opportunity to gain traction. It was entered within the bias environment’s range, instead of high to confirm the bias environment that had lapsed above the noon hour’s high. Confirmation is still possible by extending higher through the 3:10-3:20 proxy window, which just opened by probing highe.

Back under 2232.75 would target 2222.00. There would be no “unfinished business above” since RSIs have left overbought territory. And closing at or under 2220.00 would prevent putting into play any higher objective. Just as Mario Draghi takes the microphone.