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Pre-close View… Hope springs eternal. – If, Then… Market Timing

Pre-close View… Hope springs eternal.

Rally’s complete failure still finding buyers.

This morning’s rally from gapping down was more productive than yesterday’s. It peaked earlier, and its reaction down probed negative territory sooner. Lest we think buyers have been conditioned yet to expect an extended decline, there’s another bounce underway.

But the bounce is the product of conditioning, too. A much more developed conditioning effort, which is the 3:30 rally. Of course, it’s not reliable or consistent, but patient sellers are smart to step back while the dip is retraced.

The retest of the overnight 1931.00 low by 3 ticks has reacted up to 1942.25. Although the bias environment exit was under the noon hour’s low, confirmation during the 3:10-3:20 window was slow.

Perhaps the hesitation in extending down is only due to tomorrow morning’s Employment Situation report. Regardless, there is still no template with a reliable path back up at this stage of the pattern.