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Pre-close View… Jumping out of boiling water. – If, Then… Market Timing

Pre-close View… Jumping out of boiling water.

Probing fresh afternoon highs.

We all know the metaphor of a frog being cooked in a pot of water. Without sensing the temperature gradually rising, it’s too late for the frog when the water finally boils.

Today’s trading range has been that pot gradually warming. Its boiling point is reached upon exiting the bias environment at 2:30, and then entering the final hour.

After trending down relentlessly overnight and gapping down sharply, the market frog was quite complacent all day encountering only the occasional bubble. But now it is boiling.

Interestingly, the frog seems to know what may be coming. It’s trying to jump out of the pot, as the bias environment exit was probing above the noon hour’s 2043.25 high — still overlapping it, so not decisively.

Entering the final hour above 2044.50 would suggest the frog has jumped out in time to avoid becoming soup. A surge just touched 2046.00, and just need to hold up into the final hour. Otherwise, reacting down and back into the water would likely sink to the bottom of the pot under 2036.25.