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Pre-close View… Overly-optimistic, indeed. – If, Then… Market Timing

Pre-close View… Overly-optimistic, indeed.

Overly-optimistic, impatient buying — meet discounted news.

Pre-open lows had only attacked 2035.00 to within 1 tick. The post-open rally had developed from only the slightest fresh low. The morning rally’s steep slope wreaked of impatience, es_051816_pmwhich tends to be bearish from a contrarian perspective.

The morning rally’s 2050.50 objective was met, and still the afternoon bias signal was triggered. Its 2057.75 target was met at the high, just minutes before the FOMC news.

All of that optimism — be it ineffectual, impatient, or just overly — suffered the consequences by plunging to 2030.75.

2030.75 is 1 tick above the Employment Situation report reaction’s low, which is obligatory support. The drop’s 2033.00 support was never probed without also being overlapped. So, a bounce just touched 2043.50.

Simultaneously oversold RSIs at the low require a retest, probably down to 2027.00 if not also to 2025.00. Closing back above 2045.00 is a necessary element to any bullish scenario.