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Pre-close View… Wide ranging reaction. – If, Then… Market Timing

Pre-close View… Wide ranging reaction.

FOMC statement is out. Fed chair is on.

es_121416_pmThe FOMC news was greeted at 2268.50. A knee-jerk reaction down to 2262.50 reacted up to a fresh session high at 2272.50. Attacking yesterday morning’s high to within 3 ticks then reversed down sharply to 2258.00 and 2252.00 taking both RSIs oversold both times.

3-minute RSI was not oversold on the low’s retest down to 2251.50. Its reaction stopped 1 tick short of the 2257.25 buy signal that would have targeted fresh session highs. Now fresh lows are testing 2243.00, and RSIs are again oversold.

Yellen seems to be passing that point in her Q&A where nothing shocking is left to ask or to say. Back above 2253.50 would start to signal the drop was done, and momentum is reversing up. The objective would be to probe fresh highs above 2273.00 — not necessarily today, and probably not by just a little, thanks to a much deeper interim dip. Otherwise, fresh lows would be vulnerable to extending down into the close.