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Saturday Review 1/31/2015 – If, Then… Market Timing

Saturday Review 1/31/2015

By Rod David | January 31, 2015 - 1:20 pm

David B: good morning

c d: hi wrld

Mark Glezer: gm

M K: hahah nice reference

M K: isn”t this what distribution looks like?

M K: you see that BofA ML report saying private client allocation to equities at highs above 2007

Mark Glezer: two consecutive closes under 1970 would indicate a trend reversal?

M K: you”re making me want to lift some of my hedges

Bill G: A break lower could resolve like the Apr low , and not confirm a trend change and turn up?

M K: I just find it hard to believe that with all these V bottoms this probably isnt” a low as it differes so wildly with previous price action pver the last 3 years

M K: so 2020 is still the level

M K: Greek politicians are notorious for hard words and soft action. So wouldn”t surprise me to see them take another bailout

M K: re:Distribution just identifying that any new trending would wind up being new sponsorship no?

M K: and we get my 2250 target

Mark Glezer: Are Mon bias-up parameters wrong – target is only 2.5 points above the signal while bias-down range seems normal?

M K: good point about the V tops

M K: Exactly

M K: previous trend cahnge signals

M K: have been fulfilled

M K: and then reversed

Mark Glezer: ok

M K: i”m not going to change my tune until that stops happening

M K: I know

M K: Its still a bull market…

M K: i gotta bail so no stocks for me

M K: wow dow loks like a sweet rollowver

M K: that most tops look like

M K: its called gold

M K: =)

Bill G: A few yrs ago Jason from SentimentTrader did a study on the oorder of the sequence of tops(dow,spx ndx) but found each to have the same chance of making a high first etc

Mark Glezer: breaking this range lower first would likely be false & rally to new highs or not necessarily?

Bill G: prob not

Mark Glezer: AAPL, MS, GS, CS

tamara messmann: would this qualify for the 3rd time not so charming situatiom

David B: GDX,CY

David B: NEM

tamara messmann: ABX, AFL, KIN, PBR

tamara messmann: KING not KIN

David B: what about that gap does it had to be filled? CY

Bill G: XME, a one day sign of life on fri ?

Bill G: ok

David B: is amzn like nflx after earnings that has more room to the upside?

David B: what about GOOG. are they similiar reactions?

tamara messmann: Could you review oil please

tamara messmann: RIG

tamara messmann: Thanks Rod

Mark Glezer: thx much

Posted in S&P, Saturday Review