Saturday Review’s recording (for 10/14/17) …Bigger things.
Another weekend greeted at new highs. But not a new trend extreme close. That’s a tactic employed by trends to entrench themselves, and to protect against immediate reversal. This rally still has its tactics:
— a little “unfinished business above,” which is better than nothing, and
— a couple of failed reversal attempts (with opposition like that, who needs sponsorship?)
The past week was spent ranging sideways. There’s some specific behavior and levels that would start to signal whether the rally is extending, or reversing — and how high or how low, respectively. We discuss that and more in this week’s bigger picture…
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
AMD, QCOM, BCS, GS, SODA, NFLX, ARNA, MZOR, TSLA, JPM
so this week has extended hire again another weekend being greeted at a new high will dissect that in a moment and the particular meanings of it and a shallow slope shallow slope and slope is bullish or at least is a rally any higher highs and higher lows constitutes an uptrend and that has been the Rally’s Saving Grace and all of its distribution at the upper end of a range is that there’s no lower end of the range giving away the upper end of the range is holding sort of remember that slope and the lower end of the range is holding even more so last week we had a couple of opportunities we have to include the primer Friday’s reaction to the employment situation report which remember going into Friday’s going into Thursday’s close we knew that Friday’s reaction down if there were one to the employment situation report had room to test 25 43 and not even threatened to reverse the trend down so we had a pretty bullish anticipation contextually bullish meaning that the not necessarily that price would continue Rising in fact that wasn’t the likeliest scenario pull back was and that a pullback though would be absorb and it was it held but now going to this past week the two attempts at support that were absorb Monday although gapping up immediately dipped to test Friday’s low which we knew was coming from a position of strength having held 2543 on Friday coming from a position of strength meaning that it was likely to be absorbed from whatever level so that is not necessarily accumulation but it is a reflection of we candid sellers and by the way that was an opportunity for sellers to take control even though we anticipated that they would hold at whatever level weather testing 2543 I think 4150 was the Roman level with that or getting down to 35 36 testing lower prioritize down here whatever the depth having held at the first opportunity to break lower the second one usually fails but had not had the less likely scenario I’ve actually closing under Friday’s low develop on Mondays test that would have left no unfinished business above because the Gap back to Thursday’s close have been filled at Monday’s Gap up so there is not only an attempt by sellers to reverse momentum down but a pretty good opportunity and it failed and right away they’re rewarded buy gapping up all the way back to Thursday and Monday size surging but then once again which we were on the lookout for because Monday well in fact coming into Monday session we were on the lookout for the risk of reversing down from the open at this is basically thin air extend this out and that paid off well because in fact of going into Monday Thursday which was tested and held Tuesday which Monday before reversing down which was another reason why we were suspicious of sellers being able to maintain a break lower but now the game is changed at this point 2552the reaction is solidifying that this is where I guess you can solidifybut still sellers are lacking and continue to lack that one basic elements of a trend reversal and that is closing under a relevant low still hasn’t happened Wednesday gets back up to the upper end of the range 2550 2553 and you don’t get the collapse like we did Post open on Tuesday or Post open on Wednesday after I post something on Monday Post open on Tuesday we don’t get the collapse cuz it develops so late in the day until Thursday gaps down so similar similar reaction to the same area that is distribution get back up there on Thursday you know the drill not necessarily A collapse but here’s another opportunity similar to the friday-monday setup this one being entirely intraday so the decisions are getting made on a shorter time frame and there is a low that arbitrary low basically Thursday morning that suddenly becomes not arbitrary because it’s reaction up does something of relevance and that is fills the Gap back to Wednesdays close had that bounce been any shower then a fresh low would have just been part of a Down trip lower lows lower highs instead having returned to the origin basically fill in that Gap Thursday afternoons fresh low was a retest let me know if you don’t understand the difference retest of the mornings low how to get we are anticipating we are just made that up there were lower clothes and if it were soon enough before they close itself that it could have detrimental effects leading into Friday leading into Friday’s big two or three economic reports consumer sentiment and CPI most prominent but it held and having held at the close let’s get rid of this stuff at the close we knew to expect a response yet developed entirely overnight as it happens show the overnight now so here’s that retest of Thursday morning’s low that holds through the clothes that Rob sellers of their traction that had the balance of the night at the night just backed and fill their fluctuated sideways even flat to hire would have greeted Fridays open with a lot of upside opportunity that could have attracted reinforcements and could have taken price significantly higher and I say that not to describe what could happen so much as what the market decided not to let happen What overly optimistic overnight trending prevented from happening optimism that you know tend to see at the beginning of Rally’s not that this optimism couldn’t have still attracted reinforcements with the fact that it didn’t suggest this isn’t the break out from that range 2550 2553 this wasn’t a break out from the upper end of the range and in fact the session just range sideways one more opportunity by buyers that was messed was the opportunity for a new trend High close on a Friday closes on Fridays don’t happen without there being a pretty much know terribly detrimental events on the horizon it just takes too much pressure and too little contrary pressure to allow that to happen on a Friday ahead of a two-day 2 days ago liquidity just one of those Friday factorsfrankly had the clothes bin within this range above 2083 325 350 but just above it but still within this range that had developed all day we would have taken it with a grain of salt we’ve been we would have been suspicious about that qualification as a new trend I close on a Friday but the market Works itself out and doesn’t allow that that doesn’t doesn’t prevent probing higher or extending higher weather at some future point or Monday immediately the only thing it does is takes off the table the potential something that wasn’t even on the table unless there had been a new trend I close on a Friday and that’s to have the reliability of recovery the reliability that if there’s an immediate down turn it is going to it would leave outstanding a new High clothes that’s not out there it’s possible for a new trend High clothes it’s possible that this is just the beginning but it’s not a requirement and it’s not a requirement that a rally often does for self-preservation and this one had the opportunity and didn’t and as you know from a lot of other set up setups that have a bullish or bearish consequence setup said have multiple elements to them set up Center fully-formed except for that one last feature so for instance this setup of a new trend I close on a Friday that could have fully formed by closing above prioritize and at that last element failed setups that could be bullish in this case and failed to fully form tend to be as boorish as they could have been bullish and vice versa elements that are lacking or a final element that’s lacking from a bearish setup like just to give you two recent instances that we’ve already discussed like this this probe under the mornings low this probe under the priority is low had those been maintained through the clothes would have been bearish instead they were as boorish as they would have been bearish little more so by gapping or extending and expecting too much selling pressure to be maintained intraday scaring away reinforcements instead of enticing them but the same point can apply here and we’ll see if it applies here pretty quickly because on Friday if the rally hasn’t yet extended to a new High clothes will take that as meaning that this leg is done that what we’ve been looking at in the 2553 Range Rover week as being distribution not just distributive because look there’s the upper end of the range and it’s holding but distributive because of the character of how the upper end of the range is tested and held the character of the abrupt abrupt reactions down gapping down I’ll be around news collapsing collapsing gapping down even Friday having had the opportunity at least 2553the ongoing opportunity to extend hire again not exploited and except for Friday not rejected in a noticeable way that’s distribution we’ll know soon enough whether that’s distribution from week handed buyers to Stronger handed buyers typically not but that’s possible or if this has been stronger headed buyers Distributing more patient buyers becoming more patient sellers just looking at the bigger picture so here’s last week There’s Friday’s employment situation report and then the balance of the week basically still gyrating fluctuating around the prior week’s High not quite the slope two-plus weeks that led into it that shouldn’t be predictive wasn’t quite it wasn’t exactly upward slope the week before and that managed to recover that’s not the deciding factor in other words that this week this past week was shallow or even downsloping what’s more important is the behavior at the highs we didn’t get those kinds of reactions at that last consolidation for example that last consolidation came back test one more time show that sellers don’t have it and extend higher there have been a couple of opportunities in the past week for sellers to show their stuff and they failed the certainly understandable extending a little bit higher into the weekend the comparing this to other markets or other indexes the Dow a little more pronounced in its upward movement little more upsloping it did not go out or spend the week even fluctuating around last Friday’s High but last Thursday so I sorry so once again we’re back to little a performance in the blue-chip safer shares which matters if the speculative traction the primary gauge of institutional or producer in money that is seeking out more risk metric would be relevant if you were underperforming and they weren’t so there’s a little upward slope there so there’s no reason to be suspicious of the uptrend until es is on board if it’s lagging until it comes on board with the Dow and went with and Qs or if there’s at least a couple of consecutive sessions of that performance and we haven’t seen either this week for that starts out with a break lower what will be looking for is the reaction that what this indicator itself would speak to and it might not be very sensitive and immediate what it would speak to is the reaction let’s say we start the week with an immediate dip how did that react how did these three react which would have performed which one underperformed but it doesn’t undermine if the beginning of a warning shot across the bowstarting the weekshould be entirely credible but that’s not an endorsement for the outside by this indicator upside potential if the rally does resume I’ve got the wrong screen bear with me one momentokay alright so we’re right now dealing with unfinished business above that is from Wednesday morning Sarah it was a Wednesday morning that held its bias down signal is that a Wednesday morning at l-2449 or it was from Wednesday afternoon either case there’s a test of 2557 as a bias objective that’s outstanding we also have new unfinished business at 2556 75 so essentially the same thing be a new high 2057 we can come within four ticks of it we can come up there and Fort 656 75 but not with 57 still outstanding and satisfy it in other words at 56 at 2556 the attraction above for the requirement for satisfying that attraction above would be neutralized 5757 probed like to see it set up that probes 57 by to whatever degree multiple text multiple points so long as it’s the same leg and that leg never becomes komplex and Trends higher so long as 2557 is tested that’s going to neutralize any upside attraction and considering the delay and now the compounding of attractions above in that same area usually that does get probed so in other words it wouldn’t be surprising if 2557 by 2 points there’s even room up to 6350 but that doesn’t take away from the last week being distributive at least in the 5053 area and that the probe of it or attempt to probe away from it may be more substantial than these gaps up to 50 Gap up to 53532 gaps down maybe actually 57 or 59 even 6350 maybe that’s trying to get far removed from the Corpus of this consolidation is distributive consolidation if it is distributive but that’s irrelevant compared to so long as whatever time it would do contains that probe either Peaks at that level or upon exiting to buy some element has peaked or preferably exits back under a relevant flow it’s still part of this magnetic attraction to the congestion overlap that is created mass that is created its own orbit and still vulnerable to the same form again maybe to a different degree but the same character that has been describing or defining attempts to fluctuate a range around or get out of the range above 2550 E 53 2557 5859 get out of bed 2557 through the clothes and the same session or the next also above 6350 and if this distributive rangewill assume was weaker handed Long’s Distributing the stronger handed buyerstaking it to the next level at 2591 2590 5025 91 that’s a significant pay off to the rally if it can just get out of this next tire band of resistance otherwise hold resistance failed to put in a play any higher objectives and it’s not so simple to just reverse the trend down to put into play lower and lower targets but having chipped away at support twice without being rewarded by closing be on the Range just closing back under this range and really at this point again we want to see 2557 so I’m going to assume 2557 is part of the next year and making the measurements should be 29 I was off a little bit 2529 would be the minimum objective it’s really rude for noise originally room for noise around or under 25 35 36 so I could see it happening in a couple of stages that could still qualify as a pull back working out the excesses that the distributive price action at 50 and 53 has been reviewing then again I’d like this to happen I mean I assume that this would happen after satisfying 57 this could develop into something more substantial to the downside this pattern would be likely to be tested From Below just as it’s going to be difficult getting away from it to the upside similarly difficult to get away from to the downside so it depends on how big of a bounce this might be weather getting down to 29 would need to recover still that’s red two ways if there’s a corrective bounce that gets officially back into the range depending on how deep does test 25 35 36 to satisfy 2529 at this point there’s no reason for a correction back into this rain so if this drop back into this rain it’s this would have been this would be done but if this were a shallow bounce which actually have to find here doesn’t get back up in the last Tire Pryor Lowe’s and then resolves down still want to get a corrective bounce back into the range that would still be more vulnerable to resolving now so it depends on these points in a downtrend and to what degree 2557 tested first or not 25 35 36 producer reaction or not does it produce reaction or just extend down and 29 which we didn’t even discuss the reaction from 25 35 36 how high to shallow back up to the last or take out even Thursday that would be a determining Factor was finishing a correction that was likely to resolve up or whether this was just the first down legcorrection prior to another day another year they will be keeping you aware of in the event of a Downhow to turn that may or may not be preceded by first testing 2557 none of which would be relevant or at least all of which would go to the back burner if 57 were taken out and 6350 were taken out on a closing basis then our only focus is extending the 2590 5091 so Sunday night up or down Monday morning I test 2557 will be looking at hard for a similar reaction not too close up there and get them the next day but react down intraday then it could be a mid-day test that collapses into the afternoon I don’t think so I think it’s a morning thing will be looking for a new blow back strain extreme over at night that’s going that would tend to undermine a reversal unless it’s retested pretty quickly answered a Monday is open could gap down recover intraday that could push that read that fresh hi to the afternoon close lower there’s a pivot reversal so number of different set-ups here that would resolve bearishly none of which would be focal point on closing about 57 let alone above 6350 alright I feel like we do have interesting because the idea of one move and then reversal because quarterly earnings that is Ted’s to behave one way the first week that’s built in if even the following week’s worth of earnings don’t surprise price is already there alright if there are any questions about the bigger picture or the specifics of it let’s move on to stocks individual stocks I’ll do to the first two stocks any requests and then Circle back around there’s a couple that I want to add in there as well or something that I think we should update from previous requests so here’s a MD in that ongoing uptrend or you can see the uptrending support this had been a bicycle back here in August that reacted instead of proving it another one was calculated up here that wasn’t exceeded until actually this one bar for this one move on is that for weeks ago 3 weeks ago so started shipping resistance the question now since it up through it the question now is whether that is actually break or whether that is just noise but it’s some point you give buyers of benefit of the doubt that is because they’ve continued returning the market too optimistic levelsevery now and then you have topay them off but only with no eyes sword out of that range yet that presumably because of the up training support presumably because of the chipping away at resistance we do want to see some high resolution be presumably because of the attraction outstanding back to this Gap up above all prioritize from July at 15:13 higher Highs but we need to see those volume what we’re not yet seeing we’re seeing some volume surges but consistently expanding volume here on the daily chart it’s a little more obvious now that is being tested now it’ll become very relevant whether or not price volume expanse on Fresh eyes so very important that’s a risk we’re going to come back and not the same pattern of concern lot of support down here at 51 that’s why breaking be on either end of that range would be it would have been it still would be likely to Extended that direction so he was a little corrective dipokay interesting Behavior cell signal laterally to still be relevant or a kid even be raised do wood measurement we can actually raise it so now 5150 55 now that’s irrelevant cell signal there’s that much room that much room for selling pressure same thing though still applies not just a test of not just screeching to a halt coming up over the curb but actually breaking a 54 54 25 that’s irrelevant bicycle imagine are going up to hear from for last week 7 weeks 6 or 7 weeks but for the ongoing series of lower and lower highs this bounce into September did not produce a higher high there’s only been one that’s in October it has yet to be confirmed with a subsequent iri prior to producing a new low so this pattern back on track for if it’s not recovering the recovery would be pretty questionable without itBarclays Barclays looks like it’s on its waydown to 9:10 so long as 1085 isn’t recovered the big decision point would be at 9:10 until either one of those breaks there’s really nothing else if not I’d Ted is tested that I buy signal would be triggered back above 985 I would love to the bicycle to 985 Goldman there’s a lot of resistance here up to 246 they can basically see this inverted Head and Shoulders or pivot reversal pattern which is created actually it’s off of closesso you can see this this bottoming pattern in other words breaks out looking at volume surge confirms it gets to its highest objective 248 – 4793 and it proves it and the probe itself a company by very low volume relatively low volume Heroes volume throughout the formation of that pattern which is a head and shoulders and then are the brake volume surges of course so now we’ve returned back to the neckline of that head and shoulders it is natural resistance it’s going to be a big deal to the upside at not necessarily in terms of degree but in terms of reliable extension higher get through that neckline what was the first tested at neckline where did it Peak 2240 7:08 get out of up to 4708 we don’t even need to see that Pryor High the prior schema Fibonacci scheme to to 4793 we don’t even need to see that it would but get out of of to 4708 through a closed volume expanding and we have a very high degree of likelihood of extending higher in a very short term I want to see the actual pattern that was breaking hire at the time to give that some to sign some sort of price to it but I imagine it would be 273 not a huge move relatively speaking so much as being in a very short time frame and direct to 4708 otherwisepotentially a short so when strategy shortstop in reverse the log on to 4708 especially if on volume as far as it being a short there is a lot of support down here at the 2:30 area but this is just a corrective leg if it doesn’t find reinforcements soon and if it’s just to correct of leg that it’s on its way back down to 172 171SodaStream really took its time getting going back to June 2013yeah and there is a couple of different set-ups or patterns that extrapolate out to 6586 that’s been an ongoing Target that’s meth and not only is it met it’s vet and responded to it’s definitely influential so whatever the high of this test of that Target is 6775 a high volume close above 6775 is needed to resume the rally to extend its objective it’s next Target would be do high structurally just to continue or Tracy complete replacement of this high from 77 four years ago calculator but it could be substantially higher 240 which had been an influence before reversing the trend down but a lot of upside Netflix optimistic or at least objective which would have filled this Gap from July at least a high of that structure the relative HighSavannah Target if not veto it was a bit of a Target was the 186-187 area 186 188 there’s a minimum balance on the way up services support influential so we’re looking at the right pattern it’s behaving as if the pullback had been complete we know it stopped optimistically short not substantially not overly optimistic Alia Bhatt optimistically short didn’t leave unfinished business below but certainly would have been more reliable to have dipped a little deeper first but try to extend her anyway volume not so bad definitely expanded and expanded aggressively coming through these prioritize so my question now is is this a pattern that is extending and extending means that that it’s continuing to take higher but that it is going to take a Target and essentially double and triple it for a leg that is what’s the one more measurement hereso all the bars are doing right now is overlapping this 195 * 194 195 volume is looking good so we can anticipate or at least the burden of proof is on sellers that they’re going to retake control because buyers are bringing it there they’re bringing in reinforcements if that’s relevant level volume can go up from sellers but then they’d have an impact and they’re not so if this pattern is extendingis 218-219 to Target or 2:35 I would look for to 1875Little River noise up here but so long as 194 or 9425 so long as one 9425 holds the support there will likely targeting to 1875 set a bad risk reward and there’s no accounting for gaps down I love you insert a couple here of update sarna I see just a couple of more request it was productive I like this after that initial breakout try it was productive what’s not to like about the surge hasn’t done anything since that but correct it be held its correction and has recovered but what’s going on a daily so what I really sing volume expand despite price recover and that got to be a problem last week and the week on a down note that is a fresh loaf for the week basically even testing the prior week’s lives so a little bit concerned with that with these drug companies you know it just takes about results from something we saw GW Pharmaceuticals didn’t even take negative announcement to a competitor that can certainly have an impactMZOR so that’s just a little that was a request keyboard favorable reactionso mcor robotics mazor robotics was a request previously and this was one of the most attractive charts if not the most attractive chart of the day of that week that we looked at it it was for me and ascending triangle it had room for a pullback it was never utilized and as broken higher on volume now come back to test lower prioritize on Contracting volume this continues to be attacked and tried getting 5875 request for Tesla Tesla has this very sloppy history this is not at all new good for years it’s been an issue with me the pattern is just so sloppy it responds it responds to relevant levels it takes its time for filling patterns but it does come in with detours in both directions sew-in Tesla’s case we had a little topping activity up here on the way to potentially testing for 12 the reaction down basically tested what would be a cell signal had it broken decisively it was over that the couple days but never broken and could have extended down then came back up to a bicycle this is Kathy lovely the inflection point that’s being tested at 3:58 and that succeeded back to The Hideout this point for having held the test of support the prior low for having absorbed sellers there’s a reward that buyers get at some future point and that is to retrace the entirety of that way so structurally structurally just piercing it to the slightest degree even touching it specifically just touching structurally satisfies that upside that maybe a very but that upside buyers have been rewarded to the degree to the minimum degree at this point and a pattern as found resistance right back down to another cell signal at 3:40 to 3:40 190 similar to this cell signal at 314-3314 25 pierced overlapped a little bit but ultimately held Consolidated under is that still being tested is that still being tested the same way that for instance August by signal was still being tested Consolidated above come back and refuel before fulfilling so is this cell signal still being tested consolidate under come back to that resistance refuel before fulfilling to the downside this is pretty much the 358/2 that’s a really difficult line to be short above or even not to be long about it But this is literally the Line in the Sand that isn’t it start with a history of overlapping my inflection points but for resolving the history of backing and filling a triggered signal before fulfilling it but if we assume that this is a triggered signal cell signal that it has back and filled it is about to fulfill it this is literallythe most opportunistic short entrymost advantageous because you would know that much more quickly that it was wrong so this isn’t just a business about making money on profitable trades but also close second if not more importantly losing as little as possible on bad traits so that’s where this sloppiness gets to be a problem how do we Define the stop I’d look at it there’s a number of different Tools in here we could use like you can see where this inflection begins oars drifting and then inflecting down more sharply that’s where the market suddenly decided now the directions down and happened to coincide with this consolidation so if we look at 360-6367 is a stop too short and tree at 3:56 that’s a 10 or $11 risk versus if this pattern is cell signal is playing out then its objective it’s been 14 here at 3 called 354 10.11 points 241 that doesn’t make it any clearer but it’s just an active approach and I’d even consider it if this were stopped at about 360-6267 closing about 369 getting long because a big bullet will it be judged is mortgagebut there’s a lot of room for a pull back here before it actually reverses the trend down or threatens to lauderale not that it can’t be begin the week with that room being taken care of that and I be 50 but there’s a lot of room in other words that an it 50 and didn’t even under 8888 17 before reversing the trend down otherwise the minimum objective here is 100 there’s a number of qualified objectives where pattern could peek 100 381-0975 such a overlapping pattern I can’t discern which one would be more attractive but they be gradually more and more attractive higher and higher so I’d be suspicious of any kind of a 45 but quickly get a hundred out of the way and then at that point if 100 is tested first suddenly there’s only room down to 9385 before indicating momentum reversing down any questions about any of the bigger picture if not Saturday review and don’t forget we have Saturday next week no Saturday review the following week you know I don’t do holiday weekends which is Halloween that’s not the reason but it would be so what April fools everyone thanks for being here thanks for taking some time out of your weekend I hope it’s a good weekend rest of the weekend chart room will be open tomorrow night for the Globex open will see you then thanks for being here take care