Saturday Review’s recording (for 1/6/18) …Happy, happy new year.
The new year has begun as optimistically as possible. Breaking out of a shallow range and trending up relentlessly into the first weekend. A new trend extreme close on a Friday entrenches the rally, not preventing a pullback but requiring its recovery. We discuss those structural elements and other inputs during this weekend’s Saturday Review.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
IIPR, BUDZ, ACBFF, CBDS, AMD, GE, MAN, AVAV, SQ, BCS, BGNE, EDIT, TDG, INDA, MSFT, CVGW, TSLA, GCAP, AMZN, INTC, EVH, CMG
CHAT transcript:
—————– (01/06/2018 09:31) —————–
Rod David: Welcome to Saturday Review. Please post questions and comments as they occur to you. After discussing the bigger picture, I’ll ask for instant stock chart requests.
David B: Good Morning
Mark Glezer: gm
—————– (01/06/2018 09:42) —————–
nic c: pls restate the case fro a multi stage upleg?
—————– (01/06/2018 10:00) —————–
David B: AMD,GE
nic c: MAn, AVA , TDG, INDA – would like to buy all
—————– (01/06/2018 10:05) —————–
Mark Glezer: SQ – still looking for 73?
nic c: MSFT has closed above 88 – what nwext pls?
—————– (01/06/2018 10:09) —————–
Mark Glezer: MSFT probably goes by the rule if > 80 then 100
—————– (01/06/2018 10:11) —————–
Mark Glezer: BCS – any hope to restore a break attempt – exceed 12?
guest: Can you look at BGNE, EDIT, GCAP?
—————– (01/06/2018 10:15) —————–
nic c: yes
—————– (01/06/2018 10:21) —————–
nic c: sry Rod – AVAV
—————– (01/06/2018 10:24) —————–
nic c: tgt again
nic c: on AVAV back above 55.5
nic c: couple of weeks
nic c: 3 Dec
—————– (01/06/2018 10:27) —————–
ljr: CVGW, TSLA
Mark Glezer: could SQ rally just be attributed to overall mkt bullishness that we know is weak hands that may undermine 73 goal?
Mark Glezer: since it started on Jan 2
David B: AMZN,INTC
—————– (01/06/2018 10:30) —————–
ljr 3: EVH, CMG. thx I will watch recording
—————– (01/06/2018 10:32) —————–
Mark Glezer: thx much
—————– (01/06/2018 10:36) —————–
guest: downside and upside targets?
—————– (01/06/2018 10:40) —————–
guest: They have technology to change human genes. So I would say it is controversial. lol
—————– (01/06/2018 10:41) —————–
guest: too early.
—————– (01/06/2018 10:47) —————–
nic c: its BATS
nic c: India ETF
nic c: on TDG i habve the Aug spike
nic c: as below current levels – is it normal for different charting data to be so different
nic c: your charts show Aug spike as being the recent high
—————– (01/06/2018 10:50) —————–
nic c: ok thanks
—————– (01/06/2018 10:53) —————–
guest: you are an interesting guy.
—————– (01/06/2018 10:55) —————–
Mark Glezer: that’s 80 => 100 pattern ?
Mark Glezer: rule
Mark Glezer: yes
—————– (01/06/2018 10:58) —————–
Mark Glezer: there was a headline this week – is TSLA the next big short?
Mark Glezer: yep
—————– (01/06/2018 11:01) —————–
nic c: on AVAV what was the tgt above 55.5 pls – 62ish?
—————– (01/06/2018 11:04) —————–
nic c: ty
—————– (01/06/2018 11:15) —————–
David B: thanks
nic c: thanks rod – really helpful
ljr: thx
PHONETIC transcript:
good morning and welcome it is Saturday it’s time for the Saturday review happy New Year it is the first Saturday review we’ve had since mid December because of the holidays we don’t do holiday weekends which means next weekend being a three-day holiday weekend there’s no Saturday review there is Saturday review the following weekend and then did a travel no Saturday review on the last weekend of the month of January so if you have stocks that Ed based basically and into the futureclosing generally higher than the open but at a steep slope following a narrow shallow base that’s the stuff that kind of impatience is the stuff we can and seems kind of counterintuitive or more elitist word silly to call that we can when it’s really in control you would think whatever the sponsorship is that’s keeping pullback shallow for almost 2 weeks that producing a steep surge for an entire week and a little Uncharted Territory but that’s the stuff of weak or hands relatively weak or hands is they can’t afford to look back this late on Friday this late dip had to be late too late to be able to extend down too late to attract new sponsorship it had to only be able to satisfy old sponsorshipshould befor instance a 61 point I don’t know where the actual high would be but but 61.8% retracement of the up leg which we can measure either from Monday’s close or Tuesday’s close that is or from the lower end of the consolidation so somewhere in the 2705 to 2711 area that’s a 61 Matrix basement any shallow or dip especially with a 38.2% retracement and he shall wipe that then recovers to produce that new trend High clothes is going to be much more vulnerable to reversing down more definitively ultimately and terminally once the leg and there’s no requirement or that was fulfilled immediatelyand still no looking backbut we do have a new high close above 2720 to 2727 which because it was fulfilled so quickly because that being the next hour of jective fulfilling it immediately upon it being signaled as in play the only way to extend higher again without closing above 27 22 27 27-27 27 what is exactly thisit doesn’tto the extent that they will actually be able to produce a new trend extreme close just as the Friday did so does qualify as confirmation but number one that’s less likely to happen on Monday versus compared to a Friday breakout or Friday sorry Friday setup in this case for closing about 2727 after to be recovered the previous day and it is confirmed level on Friday that’s the one in put one bullet the seems to be more a function of Friday factors will have to look at itso we do have as our control group we do have the es consolidation which was largely matched by the Dow there is a doubt took a couple days to get going so long as it wasn’t two consecutive days of lower underperforming snp’s it was irrelevant end of the year but but that does that does suggest that this is where the rally is getting it corrective pullback and the speculative and now they’re waiting to be fulfilled the first week earningsa few at least there were fewer coming into the end of the year there’s actually a few more now there were fewer that would allow fiduciary institutions you have their own rules generally being unable to buy stocks that have that have been traded about $5 for a specific amounts of time duration some more more candidates in the story of California which even for the Colorado District Attorney General there is alreadysubstantially iron ran into that 5 as resistance and then there is a another company that also is in the same boat of the covering 5 nice break out very very very within the range of thefold down is 688 since just not in a good spot for being predictive nothing wrong with this week at least Wednesday but that hasn’t gone through so nothing reassuring about it either alright GE for saying that it wouldn’t be surprising if this were the years biggest performer that’s performer to the upside we don’t have thatalright one momentso nice correction during December a little shallow it would have been better served to dip deeply enough to touch a lower Pryor High which this did not but and just to keep in perspective the spec V impatience of sponsorship that way today of way to lower Pryor High they barely managed a 38.2% retracement or 61.8% would have been more constructive you Trap board shorts volume and 15850okay we definitely of action here so ascending triangle never quite never quite correct before extending higher which is fine but you can see how that’s an accident waiting to happen still at the pretty bullish uptrend see there’s a gap in here that’s not a that’s not an air pocket that’s when it’s what race typically retraced and finds support and a 61:8 retracement and there it is almost precisely if not precisely 4132 what was the actual low 4153 so completed retracement by proxy and well rewarded with a fresh High probably not usually not the whole point of the exercisethis most likely is pattern right now this likely is pattern that’s in play and has been for a while based on it adhering to certain measurements suggested this is the end of the pool bag if it’s not actually 5288 if it’s not actually 5288 then 52 so summer in here should be the low the pullback if this in is just a corrective dip and volume does suggest that and then back about 5550 and anytime would resume the rally next targeting 6235 88 so as far asso I do a Bottoms Up approach and while the broader Market if it were to do you know this shirt this week looks good but look at what what kind of effect the broader Market had on Square during this week it was really outsized and the market rallied it through December but not Square so it’s more likely a function at this point of Italy street racing that’s why I we don’t know until 4288 is recovered whether this is just still only a corrective bounce okay I’ve organizedvery interesting. Very compellingalright yeah it’s a pretty solid uptrend pretty solid option That’s the basis of anything else going forward at this stage and it really looks like it’s being slow played basically there is pessimism ineffectual pessimism the pessimism restrained optimism from a contrarian perspective that tends to be bullish sure like to see volume pick up but here is going to be my signal is just really try and hear above 102 75 that would resume the rally so that mean below and 175 102 102 75 aboveyeah nothing really else on that call right edit otherwise it’s a strong patternso this assumes that this rally is already underway the recoveries already underway the consolidation of the pullback is already done the one thing that needs to be added as volume on any higher high but there’s resistance points along the way 1 3980 75 80 up to 225 80 andbut Ialright this is not it seems like this is this a very controversial company or stock it’s not a lot of continuity among any of the patterns but enough so that I would assume in this particular in this stage that pretty big resistance is being tested right here at 34 room for noise above it up to 3725 and room for noise below it down to 2810 so close would suggest at least lower high our love story orso basically spent the year flat the lower this is constructive to retested this range to Pro gundred actually and still be recovering not yet entirely productiveyeah I can identify a pullback live it like 33 3325 so 33 25 it’s not very close doesn’t look like something that would happen overnight but that’s that’s a cell signal to close in to 3325 and meanwhile near-term support in the 35 area 3472 3485 I wouldn’t be concerned with a dip to 3470 3485 start closing under 3470 that would be a concern but momentum of the trend doesn’t reverse down until closing under 3325 on i n d a senior comments on tdg August so that does look likealright so looking at cvgw good rally on the break these are the volume on the brake decent volume on the follow-through it is an uptrend so this isn’t the kind of pattern that I’d be looking for a reversal anytime soon that was able to reverse the trend when we looking for a top ultimately the next objective is essentially 93-93 50 caught 9350I said plenty of time to extend down if it wanted to and hasn’t it’s also had plenty of time to reject it more robustly and break back above a prior High hasn’t done that so again I just no real indication here that the bigger picture is reversing the trend up we still have a downtrend from the last relative High working on a high or low and now I’m at 3:40 745 or this area basically would tell us at the rally and resume anything less than thatso maybe 8:35 is a little while 35 is a little tighter of a pull back limit then 775 it’s not as predictive but maybe that’s useful more useful so just soon see 8:35 all the support while waiting the whatever that was behind that Spike and has now corrected to be reestablishedhey I think any fresh I any anything about 10:35 should be bullishRaba be the target above 5550 I was 6235 6155 6235 Amazon but that avoided disasterbig resistant sorry I don’t have caught at Target area it’s not it’s really fulfilling buying pressure but just the measurements between tops and bottoms not necessarily cycle because it’s not based on timing these are Cycles anyway but that’s timing on it but if if those remain influential than 12:18 and it’s a big rings but 12-18 1224 being tested now with room for noise up to 12:57 1260 to 5730 to 6275 actually it’s 60 to 70 big resistance area again not Target. It could beor thethis looks like bgne in reverse very sloppy but even though the consolidations are the resultsturn