Saturday Review’s recording (for 3/11/17) …Toppish.
FOMC’s policy statement is this week, and it’s being greeted by a lot of distribution. Quadruple Witching expiration ends the week. None of which means the reaction will be negative, or that it won’t. Following the path higher, first, can be obvious at Monday’s open. So can a brief detour down. Or a deeper detour. I describe those paths in detail during this week’s Saturday Review, including the specific levels and behaviors that will indicate which one is likely being followed.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
TGT, QCOM, WIX, RH, DPZ, BUD, RAD, SODA
Alleged transcript:
Alright good morning and welcome it is Saturday and time for the Saturday review thanks everyone who is here for being here to to those questions comments as they occur to you will come back to everything if you have any stocks be prepared for those I think we’re going to be about 20 minutes on the market and then any stock requests so let’s get started basically it’s been an interesting week on top of rounding out we were still in progress here as far as the pattern but rounding out a 4 week four weeks tent so we can go back 3 weeks to see that lower price lower prioritize that still we can just buy two consecutive positive closes that the back is done that’s the short week hear that started with a gap up because the President’s Day holiday weekend rallied no confirmation sideways range the following Monday or false Breakout fall start really and anxiousness Tuesday ahead of the president’s State of the Union Address that was taken very well Trend it up overnight Gap top extended higher into last Wednesday’s High last Wednesday’s hi and by the way we’re looking at June which is about three to three and a half point at the time discount to March rolled the front-month this week 2404 essentially 2401 is the room for noise above last Wednesday time if and or when it is we tested 2415 being the next time jective actually as far as recover and one level and extending to the next level that’s our objective if this recovery is going to extend their objective is actually too just structurally structurally to retest last Wednesday’s opening Gabba which base is June was 23 7775 the lower the blow of the bar 7750 that is the minimum objective we did have another objective outstanding 7450 actually was 7758 buy a subsequent tests of the bicep signal that was never tested and remained outstanding to give us Insight confidence that the pull back or they declined we were looking at at least until 7750 basses March 7450 bases June was touched was just temporary but that was retested overnight or I should say pre-open there’s the is a 18 minute chart pre-open yesterday and reaction to the employment situation report so the next objective structurally that’s outstanding as I said is a retest of Wednesday’s opening app for 7750 being it slow and then really nothing above there I’ve been there is a gap also to a close out standing there we can watch them together then that 2401 2401 objective on retesting the high that’s next truck projective then again calculate 2415 or not the not being that and let me narrow our Focus here the not being that this test of lower price which normally holds normally it is retested lower Pryor has the size of the price range that are than lower normally after a breakout it’s quite normal to test that tag up as it were and resume in the direction of the trend normally and usually that normal occurrence resolved and one or two sessions now in this case lower prioritize begin at 2364 which were tested already on Monday we tested on Tuesday as I said normally one or two sessions of that and we’re back off in the direction of the trend of the prevailing Trend did not resume and the stead trend downtrend quite literally a series of lower lows and lower has every single session printing a little low and a lower high persisted and these lower prioritize were probed infect the price range was Pro calculate to it almost at the lowest point that could have been tested before crossing over that point of equilibrium think of it as going over the falls so with the employment situation report approaching the certainly influence their that had the market nervous and went ahead line crossed that regarding the truck and ministrations plans or it is own commitment Trump that’s the market down and had to the week and we know that as a rule because that’s what kind of money put his price in response to headline and then being ahead of the employment situation report we knew that wasn’t going to extend down that it was likely to recover not that it would recover necessarily in the same day which is actually did as a very nice way to end the day but that also broke a trend as I described the ongoing series of lower lows and lower has all of that selling pressure also resulting in lower closes until Thursday Thursday’s was the first session that recovered to close positive despite program freshen today look and that’s been well rewarded already by extending our overnight and Gathering up it’s also been punished or penalized for that because extending her overnight first of all regardless of the news or the scenario situation or whatever the environment a singular trending or singular Trend overnight Relentless singular Trend overnight often is reversed at the open not always and when it’s not very often the remainder of those outcomes very often will just persist that singular Relentless overnight trip and then there’s the remaining few outcomes that are not reliable so if yesterday’s open had resumed singular Relentless overnight trend and extended hire through the open we could have been looking at some significant highest intraday it’s a Friday and so Friday factors get involved that is the impending illiquidity it’s just a different mindset or different influences and when the when that didn’t happen than the alternative off and reverses and the reversal to cold a lot deeper th and that’s what’s so important herean it needed to but we do have a second consecutive positive close and that’s what’s so important to hear which is that despite reversing the singular Relentless overnight uptrend which by the way in light of the news we were already concerned about excited at the opportunity to extend higher if it could be avoided if we gather above Pryor has could be maintained that is fertile ground up there but still the concern that I had lighted before the open was a lot of optimism ahead of such a weighty announcement being the mornings employment situation report that’s a lot of optimism witch from a country in perspective is potentially barish it proved to be bearish that’s the route of the two pads available to this setup that’s the route the market took and so it’s doubly interesting really exponentially more interesting that despite that despite having overdone the outside and despite being penalized for that even reversing of the negative territory and on Friday no less the market still closed positive for a second consecutive session after six consecutive sessions I’m going thoroughly tested the lower prioritize and still couldn’t break through so the very bullish shut up I’m still very suspicious about the downside the burden of proof is after all of this even more so on sellers because they keep dropping bits of evidence they don’t make their case so it remains to be seen whether all of this selling has served a useful future purpose in chipping away at that support so that for instance after about after neutralizing the attraction to last Wednesday’s open which has to be rejected before a durable top can be credible which can’t be retested like this dipping under it and then retesting it from below it has to be rejected the origin of that retest leg has to be back within lower price we only got the lower price here on Monday and since then there hasn’t been a significant enough to neutralize that attraction and at that point there is a delay and doing that itself being pessimism despite coming so close a couple times that starts to suggest will have an even more bullish have come to that so maybe all this chipping away at the lower prioritize has served a useful future purpose that once that upside attraction or this upside attraction or an even higher upside attraction is neutralized and a down leg can be credible and begins that it doesn’t really have much obligatory support are much support little loaded look at Torrey at what is otherwise a pretty solid shelf of support head that gives way we’re into what what preceded that range I trim trending to the previous consolidation majority of any markets time or stocks time is spent consolidated different estimates 15% 25% 35% markets time is actually trending from consolidation consolidation we’re headed to this trim replacement there’s a variety of different ways to calculate that can identify the levels they graduate in here around 2323 10 with room for noise but that’s what happens next if and or when we break under the show and probably not I’m still forming more credible top if we break lower first if despite two consecutive higher closes say positive closes say that yesterday’s clothes yes as positive close was just a function of that Friday Factor will know that pretty quickly Sunday night or at least Monday is open at least you’re upset by then we oughta be seeing clearly keishin that Friday’s range Fridays bounces being rejected never what the Europeans got to trade on before their markets closed was a pretty favorable reaction to the Employments report that Retreat to wear the market was when the report was released but other than that didn’t even show much more than here at least of even probing into negative territory that may prove very disappointing out that actually resolve that didn’t recover how that really did have that weekend maybe after we can not but or something else comes up but if Friday session isn’t powerful enough to resume the rally there’s really in there is really no excuse to further delay recovering this down to have it all this sewing pressure that was unproductive that’s not two consecutive sessions two consecutive hire a close is no excuse to the rally to further delay its recovery so just further delaying its recovery at least to the Oakland but more likely The Berrics scenario with gas down reject Fridays range we do have unfinished business below at Thursday’s low yeah it originated as a knee jerk reaction to a headline and it was weak and its sponsorship but it had complexity and it did create simultaneously over sold one and three minute all right size at the law that requires an eventual retest so if Monday is open is rejecting Fridays recovery Friday second consecutive are close there’s one more opportunity to form a durable bottom here because we can’t really take a knee-jerk reaction counter-trend to the closes two consecutive closes it was positive closes and so while I ate Immediate Care Trend to that counter-trend action probe of the low good actually reversed and resume the prior week’s Decline and be pretty productive about it Dad to 2310 not from a credible origin so we expect that to be temporary but still pretty productive well that can’t happen the likeliest scenario in the event of testing Friday’s low probing Friday’s low testing Thursday’s low is that that load does hold and that it does launch that more substantial recovery back to the house then we test the highs 2450 that’s where the durable download can take for let me come back to the questions the market cannot have a dream with a client until at least completely round to the Wednesday open I just say I didn’t try that there is more to the answer that what I said I’m sure that we would expect that at the time because of this holding these lower price or be if the lower prioritize were to break that they break prior to neutralizing the March one Gabba we can test that Marked Ones and 2415 would still be on the table but will have a higher pull back actually actually 2357 Sunday night there’s any questions let me know probably let’s look at the comparisons among the indexes and as we do that just as a reminder this last search was preceded by other performance among the more speculative issues performance among the safe for Havens so this was almost Wednesday sure it was almost her essentially originally done not the stuff of strong-headed accumulation invulnerable there for launching a durable download this to a current lease require retest before bigger top form and this pattern this whole stage of the rally is extremely vulnerable to forming that bigger top and that bigger reversal down that will not be surprising be very prepared if I’m not correct about the retest of the high do you think about the Gap up and I’ll be surprised if all this sewing pressure has enough balance that we do get a fly out of it it just won’t be necessary it will be on guard at any time any way for a big drop big persistent The Climb that should be the next stage of this market and it should be Felicia relatively speaking ndx into lower price and remember the law requires weren’t even tested until this week so we haven’t looked at this yet savers just have to be exposed to that kind of exposure but that’s 500 stock index index got down to lower price on Monday and get there until late Wednesday and then really tested it on Thursday barely Safe Haven speculative we already they were already but it has to travel to my comparisons is being any more General comparisons the average post alright so when we look at this I guess it was last week Target needed to recover about 70 to put this pull back out of it so out of control but it decided to go the other way and break under what if I’m sorry I’m going to base is it had room dad to 6150 3575 someone in here that the pattern was basically dictating should be tested anyway that was the opportunity to come out of here we have had a lower Buy Signal but instead the pattern just leapfrogged over it so while that had to be tested a take that test could have been avoided by gapping up that we have been lower Buy Signal with a lower bicycle calculable but I wouldn’t be interested in any bicycle in this time that is nothing to be taken lightly that’s nothing there’s a book here that’s a valuation that historically the market has been comfortable with at least four by four score of stopping profit-taking selling stopping selling any case it is obligatory support nothing bullish about that that support reduced if I had to return to it likely to give away to some degree it looks like a pretty major degree that at some point probably at least most likely I see lower price here around 5870 so I can’t say from here from that prior alone as surely it is obligatory support but it is still likely Torrance it’s not prevented from being probed one thing yes some point I think 4850 needs to be touched maybe there’s a trade in here if there’s a boogie Tori support isn’t much support of the other it’s going to bounce first 25850 59fifty in fact I’m just going to call 39 maybe it’s going to bounce first and then resolve down otherwise if it gets to 48 51st then there’s a corrective belts none of which says this is ever going to return it our lifetimes to acquire hives but that is a pretty substantial turn but that’s the kind of challenge alright come any other starts go ahead and post them please Hisense a pretty decent spot for a bottom on Qualcomm I would suspect I would expect that these higher fryer Lowe’s will be tested next and if not next then it’s some pointthat’s a good that’s a decent spot to originate that move it it’s already on going for a little over a month anyway but that requires at this stage since it’s trying in the volumes a little weak on this afte r the rest follow through though that does require holding 5680 5675 so under 5675 it’s kinda pulled back limit 5675 holds probably headed up here to test-fire Prairie Lowe’s route 6475not going to get very jealous without closing under 5425yeah um Wix you looking for the stock correct and Robert Half Tulsa OK