Saturday Review’s recording (for 3/18/17) …
Last week’s Saturday Review left us confident that the multi-session decline was ending. Which the decline then did. This week’s Saturday Review tells us why its recovery may have ended already. Which it probably has not. Specific setups greeting the new week are defined, along with their likely consequences, and where it all fits into the bigger picture.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
FDX, MOV, AAPL, LEN, KBH, VRX, GDX, VZ, ADBE, ORCL
so we had a eventful week we’ve had a good deal of confirmation to the patterns that we’ve been monitoring go back to last week basically it take a look at where we left things heading into the weekend there been two consecutive higher closes in the context of an ongoing declined really just multiple consecutive sessions any bit of these elements on a continual basis lower lows levels lower closes everyday consecutively had that mall for succession that’s a lot of sewing pressure without refueling the refueling came in today but negative close if your negative clothes and finally despite getting a fresh blow intraday got a positive closed last Thursday so big feature to keep in mind about trending trending reversals really difficult to start a reversal to end the trend on the same day or at least that is the day following a fresh low without something else but haven’t happened in that so that’s why I’m last Wednesday we had a reasonable degree of certainty that the trend was extending and it did it has to except for one exception which is the abrupt introduction of new sponsorship instead of this sponsorship running out of steam being fully expended new sponsorship Russians in that’s in the form of the Gabba we got it all really in this spot as last weekend so we enter the weekend with a pretty high degree of confidence built on the high degree of confidence that we had any way that you don’t take a new high and immediately reverse Down Under lower prayer has this show for bass just wasn’t going to give away on its first hit important point to keep in mind first hit and that’s not to say this is the first and second it I’m going take a little longer than usual there’s one more couldn’t get because actually did develop on Tuesday it was contained and Wednesday ahead of them already if a better time to UFC news is that there’s been a breakout and a pull back pull back Target that had been met that’s where the news was greeted why we even entertain to buy signal of course we action pre substantial something to pay attention to hear as before we tie it all together and hear something to pay attention to hear this is the fomc reaction it’s a breakout session it’s the first close above multi-session range there’s another break a couple Wednesday’s prior that’s the reaction to the president joint Congressional speech tonight before that was a one-off no confirmation no second consecutive her clothes the following day is that a pattern here’s Thursday no second consecutive her clothes the following day third time it’s not really a charm and actually if we do see a third break out then we will have a high degree of confidence that it won’t be confirmed but in any case Thursday not event Friday kind of a non-event especially for being a expiration quadruple witching expiration if that come into this pattern on confirmation session on Thursday the set up into it the least likely scenario was for the balance of the session to just trade out and in the absence of breaking of the way before the close the following open was likely likeliest to Gap open and didn’t there’s going to be any time that the mechanics of the market override the normal patterns going to be expiration so it’s also interesting that expiration has traded out as well and I feel like I’m trying the morning drifted down help support the mornings buy a stamp signal the afternoon drift it up trigger no bias actually probe the bicep signal during the nobodies environment being no bias trending it required being retraced and it was a little bit deeper than it needed to be it was likely it was likely to return to 27225 it was likely to return to 2380 if not also 2379 it did that and didn’t stop and that brings us to looking forward never come back inside one more thing together about that Pryor High looking forward we had on Wednesday or bullish FedEx which is influential Friday afternoon and Monday morning now it when we say bullish we think more about this than we think of it like this the timing timing is almost everything in my work so it’s of course major interest as to when this actually became this so if the afternoon was a series of higher highs and higher Lowe’s may be influenced by the bullets wed x may be behaving as though according to the same input output in the bullish way that someone’s day or performing this way in tandem with the boy text whichever we’re going to give her the benefit of the doubt that the WebEx the bullets with ex is in play which is important because of the bullish FedEx is in play if the weather is in play influential will call it on Friday afternoon then it’s likely to be influential Monday morning to whatever degree it’s influential on Friday afternoon it’s likely to be even more influential in other words more aggressive on Friday morning that’s right Monday morning so that’s why we have to pay attention to this did this invalidate this or is this invalidated and it’s the latter this is invalidated as far as being able to invalidate the earlier bullish influence because of the timing it’s expiration day there’s the final hour by the time we eat before we enter the final hour or by the time we do it to the final hour the ongoing series of higher highs and lows remains intact it’s not optimal for sure but I am giving the benefit of the doubt to the bullish FedEx and if the bullish FedEx continues to be influential Monday morning then Post open Action should Trend up aggressively to the morning environment starting at 11:30 the one thing that is where the market will open because that influence applies only to Friday afternoon and Monday Morning Post open the interim reaction the interim price action in Europe can be anything and if it can be anything it can trigger a gap up or down in other words as impedes can trim down even deeper Sunday night greet the open with Monday’s open much deeper and then be influenced Again by the bullets would ex and Trend up to the morning or trim back up to the overnight actually be optimal suboptimal setup is to immediately invalidate whatever made that setup suboptimal what made this is setup suboptimal made it not optimal is that the final hour broke the uptrend so gapping up immediately to retrace that final hours drop would break that up trim or I’m sorry I reinstate that up to break that reverse that break now of course that’s not enough that would need the trend up as well through the open preferably exiting the open above a prior high for confirmation literally reject whatever this late so I’m pressure was because it’s not part of the greater influence some sort of a robe whatever noticed something else price action trimmed it down into the clothes exactly price action trended down into the clothes of an afternoon who’s prot who’s the opposite extreme if we trim down the opposite extreme is the high noticed it proceeded to 30 it was in the 1:20 to 2:30 window it develop during the bias environment so getting up not only back above that last hour segments of the decline but also back above the afternoons high after having trended down into the clothes would form a session Long Valley set up so is session long Riley says at whatever slope every time in window usually with one exception usually the noon hour will at some point probe the prior timing Windows High sounds like an uptrend it’s actually possible to do that each timing window probing the prior timing would have died and maybe have a series of horizon Harlow’s but not really Advanced rate for that if the bullets wed x is going to control this is just a rogue wave Friday’s late down leg then this should be done more aggressively Monday morning there’s also discounting for being over the weekend I tend to dismiss that over expiration because expiration is one movement that’s why they wed x applies to both the Friday afternoon and Monday morning why I can leap frogs over the weekend or basically ignore it so if we get a on Monday backup up Friday afternoon so I haven’t rented down into Friday’s close I’m going to give it every benefit of the doubt that it’s a session Long Valley set up and we’ll be monitoring each time in window for prior timing windows I and so one question maybe not so likely had a post expiration session it would be more unlikely less likely just a normal weekend but after expiration because of the two sections being tied together a setup and one much more often than any normal weekend can LeapFrog over that question should be in Monday and after the bullets way that she’s no more a factor and it Friday afternoon trending down is the movie Rush that’s a possibility because that’s final hour that otherwise invalid it then otherwise trended counter to the bullets wed x actually does invalidate or ultimately invalidates the bullish FedEx it’ll do that not just by tapping down or trending down into the open member the open the following up and can get down and still trimmed up because of the set because of the Red X influence the open the oven in 15 minutes about ility will need to trim down as well and the biased and Signal will need to trigger that’s a general statement about the bike down single triggering because we can get down under it if the buyers down Target is fulfilled but he’ll that’s not the Bears we can try and write back up to the bias down signal but the point being if there’s any reason that any lower Target is put into played by the open by the behavior of the open not just getting down that’s that does not put into play lower Target anything else so any other formation setup structure that would give more credibility to this Final hours reaction down and I wouldn’t be so quick to do that if the bullets wed x influence it actually produced a fresh pie not just broke the prior session so I this is the three minute chart again this is Friday looking at Thursday so not even the side just after noon should give that back less credibility that it can even develop into something more bearish there is any way an attraction remember we entered last weekend with a pretty bullish Outlook in that the I’m going to climb had produced two consecutive higher closes but even that didn’t prevent and wasn’t expected to prevent one more pull back which we got on Tuesday same thing here even if we have the most bullish Outlook that doesn’t mean that there can’t be one more pull back because we do have some kind of Unfinished Business it’s typical I don’t want to say traditional but it’s just typical that the origin of NFL on Siri action is retraced it’s off and retraced within a handful of days if not the following day that origin of course it 370 50 which I suspect will be a probe under 2374 the point being that there’s still an attraction outstanding does it have to happen intraday like it happened on Tuesday that’s Tuesday and have an intraday to pull back it doesn’t have to overnight is more than welcome to get that test out of the way maybe even get down to it having tested it overnight and having completed that pull back take off for the rest of the day or the rest of the morning that is who is no actual pull back limit that says this rally is done instead there’s a balance women that has yet to be exceeded to tell us that this rally this leg is durable why is that because that hi to Wednesdays ago two and a half weeks ago doesn’t actually require big were tested are a size ultimately were not over but simultaneously what is most attractive most of an attraction of this session structurally is its cap up above all prior hide that kept up wants to be were tested from Below and as soon as that’s the only structural elements calculations you know if we do we test Wednesday that Wednesday’s High the objective on that is 2401 if we do resume this rally its next Target is 2415 to their calculus AB of structure which is what is most important is that guy that wants to be retested from below its were tested here from Below but that’s not an arbitrary below originate from touching a prior sessions ring so not until these lower prioritizer touched would have bounced filling the Gap back to that Wednesday’s open not until then with that actually neutralize that attraction and as soon as those lower prayer Heiser touched the first opportunity actually neutralize that attraction was on Thursday Two Thursdays so that’s done there is no requirement to extend any other potential going a couple days without exploding that this upside attractions been neutralized couple sessions without explaining that we’re still in an upward tilt remains intact so I am looking for 2401 as I’ve been looking for looking for last week looking for that ultimately to recover putting out right now is that recovery was please let me know as far as other markets so as soon as we just stupid looking at who is this is the cash got that replacement haven’t really closed substantially higher but if closed but it bounced I enough to qualify as a 61 8 replacement ndx which is speculative index is come alive this is where this reflects more speculative activity even before Excellency in the last weekend we had a retest of the high the damning while significantly underperforming a not even getting to a 61 8 Richmond so as it fixed itself not necessarily there’s a there’s often a final coming together one final thrust we’re not going to see a substantial reaction down while in the ex is making my eyes though not a substantial reaction down that doesn’t recover but just another reason why I am still looking for a retest of the highs at the least and possibly even higher say another 20 points 20s points any questions please go ahead and post them