Saturday Review’s recording (for 3/25/17) …
Did this week’s fresh lows end the potential for one more new high? That depends on the pullback’s depth and duration. There’s room for a little more of each before considering the trend to have reversed down. This week’s review describes the relevant patterns and likely price action within 15-20 minutes. Then stick around to learn several charting and Fibonacci techniques that help to interpret patterns.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
AMZN, AVGO, FCX, XLNX, SHAK, AMD, NVDA, WYNN
and welcome it is Saturday it’s time for the Saturday review please post any questions you have as they come to you and I will surely get to them as possible if you have stock charts that you’d like us to look at the review do instant analysis will do that after we discussed the broader Market bigger picture which is interesting it’s interesting because of the news out there this week yesterday especially should have been Thursday brought to and what is a singular effort presumably not to be redressed soon and that is to change the landscape of Healthcare in the United States which really doesn’t matter generally to the market other than how it affects other initiatives that the market rally was kind of counting on since November it’s a long way down before that goes away but an interesting point to this current down leg is that it is originating from a lower high and that’s not relevant only because it is it means that comes from a as you can see a descending triangle type of pattern and I say type of pattern because it’s actually not a it’s actually not a extended support as I’ve indicated it here I drop my patterns at extremes so this is where this pattern begins and Alternate between support and resistance so this and this are irrelevant which we need to know because we rent a car in a lot of cases we take our measurements from this leg no because this is for this weekend we discussed the 2327 2317 potential coordinate with a replacement of this leg 6182 that Lake this has reverse this is a very common for patterns before the break out more substantial for the purpose percent projection comes in 2333 right now there’s about a three and a half Point discount or premium tooth over futures which puts this is at about 2330 we happen to have unfinished business below at 2331 from earlier this week so a lot of soul and yesterday by the way yesterday is low came due within 3 tix at 2331 which does effectively neutralize that attraction that I just labeled as unfinished business but after several days and on a Friday afternoon when participation is generally less When there’s less liquidity even if there were more volume what does that mean even with more volume there’s less liquidity because that volume tends to be one-sided or easily whipped into a one-sided friends so I don’t really do a Friday afternoon extreme especially when it’s a new trend extreme or new extreme for a move I don’t really view that as representative or predictive so I am expecting 2331 for those reasons to be proud that’s Futures. 2333 something bases cash so let’s just say that we’re going to pray whatever however this resolved it has to include some form of a freshly that’s one candidate for that freshly another candidate for the fresh little bit off these levels because this is Cash There’s different different spreads versus you choose a different times but if this is not the next objective lower there’s an interim objective or what I call room for noise I cash my cash measurements have to happen to be coming in around 2327 which is not exactly correct for futures because Futures actually does come in at 2327 but versus the 21 objective that is in the process of being tested there’s room for 9 to 2327 so this leg can be just a retest of the prior low that’s earlier this week these are not daily bars is there any one minute bars this way down doesn’t have to slow its Pace Monday or I can get back underway Sunday just because it’s test touched the prior low two weeks prior low and held and as we’d be called bounced into the clothes that again this is just not a predictive window for analytical purposes late Friday afternoon so that bounce if anything refueled sellers so looking for that declined to extend or at least momentarily try and find buyers clean out the rest of sellers so that’s the 2327 area if that gives way there’s one more opportunity around 2317 futures and that’s an opportunity for this having failed to retest reptiles with y’all discussing the moment for this to basically serve as a correction to hear to hear little bit of room down at 2310 2311 futures which is the roof for noise under 2317 but that’s all in the context of this being a correction of this and after that resuming the rally that this is not the sort of pattern you see it getting steeper and if we traced out this path I do believe that is the slope that will be it will be entering on that last leg if that’s the last leg this isn’t the kind of pattern that suddenly reverses up on a dime so it’s some sort of backing and filling based on how many weeks this is taken and will it take him presumably to develop this probably takes a week plus or minus a day or two and then Not That We’re Off to the Races again but Riley mode back on and all of that because rather than sending triangle pattern or because it’s just setting triangle pattern has broken lower rather than allowing a retest of the high and not just re-tested Ohio but actually one more Valley leg descending triangles the dissension refers to the lower or the counter Trend action in its extreme here’s the extremes on the count on the counter Trend action they’re descending that’s what is descending triangle refers to it doesn’t necessarily referred to as this one we can see the outcome is descending but that’s not the same descending triangles in uptrends often do brake higher they are corrective patterns they tend to break out when a breaker in a permit into a permit or more permanent durable Peak that in this case basis cash targeted about 2418 2415 filters had this break lower developed instead of here or have that not developed at all which really became all that required as soon as we started entering that like headed instead produced a fresh-caught perhaps allowing this to be more of a symmetrical triangle and not even forming this way then we still would be maybe not so quickly is now but still would be attacking these levels so whatever tential the lower levels but this would be more assertive being a top we wouldn’t be looking for Recovery Potential from 31 2731 we wouldn’t be looking for Recovery Potential from 2317 which we are forever this way it happens to land and that being within this context I am expecting that to launch that one more higher high which by the way I could be more substantial at that point that’s new president so widely accepted the old president to be able to squash it the rest of it this week conservatives and a lot of what the Rally’s built on goes away I don’t really have any opinion on any of that other than to point out that suddenly there’s a bigger reason for exiting stock a bigger reason maybe for focusing on Blue Chip stocks versus speculative or more economically sensitive we’re already saying and some of the Dead I know 0 had just been reporting or disseminating some of the stuff that lone Generations being down used car prices plummeting so there’s reason to be suspicious that this is about to do a 180 or doing a but that’ll all be out in the next day or two the first day or two of this week the bigger minds of all ready I’ve already been making those determinations this is not weak and it last minute stuff they may be already saw that the health-care bill had no chance of passing anyway and already determined what that would mean and have been shifting ahead of that so the more that stuff comes into the headlines the closer we are to a low because the more big money will have already position because of it if that’s the case then that gives us the opportunity for a bottom near-term again in this pattern as you can see from the slopes accelerating the bottom has to begin from almost to capitulated session or two which tends to suggest to 2331 won’t be allowed 23 3127 that’s pretty close but at least on a closing bases will be monitoring those levels especially if there’s an intraday drop down to 2317 for instance that closes back above 31 go to be pretty interesting again not that reverses backup without hesitation because this is not of the bottom we’re not going to get a steep drop that suddenly response it all together but even if we do there’s going to be some hesitation needed because this sort of shock to the system requires 1 more 1 more note and then more durable top could have formed we would be visiting these levels anyway we’d be extending through these levels lower anyway but there wouldn’t be such potential for recovery that’s off the table not 2014-2015 is still has run its course that’s that’s the there’s one other but February at this stage of the pattern based on what that rally that segment of the rally produced in follow through 2 degree that it did before it’s being traced retracing this leg any more deeply than 24 10:20 or 2310 2311 is no longer or tracing but reversing 2415 would be off the table we wouldn’t just be looking at a correction of this up like would be looking at pretty much it’s complete capitulation or if the most bullish just a much much deeper correction if this last leg this app which can be representative this segment can be representative of this last leg basically but if this reaction down this pulled back isn’t just a pullback correcting this leg to this degree they were really looking at a correction of the entire relics in November that’s much lower that challenges 2200 and that probably doesn’t happen in a heartbeat another battery test 52 area is also possible Monday morning before plugging under 31 and what are the odds of testing lower Price Rite 2300 of the next 2 to 3 weeks before making you have questions so the first one that is it possible to bounce a little bit more before resuming the decline because Friday’s late bounce it’s so I took a lot of the edge away from buyers rather than refueling buyers by trapping shorts so that this could be carried over into the next week this time every every cell off every rally please repent the pressures in the opposite direction so when we have it so after this degree to this extent the multiple-time in Windows sewing off to the downside that spit up buying pressure it’s not all shorts that have to cover at some point it’s not all investment thesis Theses that are backing off of exposure to stocks if they anticipate expanding at a later time what is sexually as things move around the mean sell off are ultimately caring this over the weekend probably would have attracted more showing right away if not a mass of gas then probably more showing right away but then things get a little extended to extend it and that pent-up line pressure takes over this case that picked up by and pressure is already been utilized so the question from the template perspective just the way markets work we’ve already got that bass this bounce doesn’t have to extend one tick higher before the decline resume that pent-up bind pressure has been expended the idea that the bad news on Friday is not going to work its way into bad research reports released to the street to the retail proud of the weekend Monday morning lowering of expectations even more so than they have been that kind of action is likely to result and gaps down so the template just the Mechanicals of how the street reacts doesn’t need to bounce any higher if in fact we are bats and 252 and I don’t mean Sunday night before us markets open but if the market does bounce 252 probably were bouncing higher so we did just come into as I defined earlier a potential double bottom retesting the week prior low and holding it through the clothes and that’s just one leg one bounce that doesn’t reverse the trend backup it needed to do more than this come back up above a prior High through Fridays close he can still do that by proxy Monday’s open can be concerned as a short of time machine by proxy not just by extending I are through the day and then closing higher the anchor would be too love but by gapping up to indicate that that whatever happened on Friday was being rejected to indicate that stronger hands more sponsorship was coming in to reverse that the other way should we go to if we go to 52 on Monday we’re probably going back to the hive 56 where there’s there that single parent to come over but are so I left outstanding wanting a retest improbably extending back up the bottom could already be in that 2331 coming to within three types of it and may suffice so we got a 52 or probably reversing the trend backed up anyway otherwise much like we’re all spring equal not just to resume the trend without the leg but to actually Greek Monday’s open Monday’s u.s. open capping down question where the other hundred over next over the next 2 to 3 weeks before making me 2310 2311 refers to if not 2317 that basically refers to getting a steep slope especially and then suddenly running out of steam or basically forming a base 2317 2311 Navy 2310 that really gets dangerous but to come all the way back to 2300 which is another set of lower price and another phase of the market I mean it surely was bullish reason to come back to these little prayer eyes after that consolidation broke higher come back to those lower prayer has produced and Bounds we anticipated that entirely yeah that one set of lower price does not suffice to resume the trend that those lower prioritize our part of then it’s more than just one more lower Pryor High that’ll be were tested so the 2300 2300 area if that has to be rejected then so does the one below it which basically comes in 2280 kinnett really good it’s so then after a couple 3 weeks if the numbers are off to 2317 2311 isn’t it does it just take a week or two more I don’t think so the measurements on this pattern just don’t allow that much deeper the dip structurally today at work itself out back above prioritize the rally has to resume by taking out prior has it that time at that point that stuff you can see how it was here from this to take out its Pryor High never happened 2300 what the last on the order of time it took to climb up oh I see so is this and we really have to determine where are we starting this from I mean I just went from November because that’s the biggest longest drawn-out Market that hit all the right spots as far as holding a lower priority altimate lay its cetera so is there a relationship between the uh plague in the down leg not necessarily but it’s a different mentality if it’s just a correction then yeah there is there should be a ratio but not necessarily so time issue I don’t have a better answer than that extending down Monday morning would make 17 likely on the same day question can sidering the slope of the Sun not necessarily on the same day not necessarily on the same day extending down Monday could leave then a little follow through for Tuesday and that gets the recovery okay let’s look at the compare markets and future this week if there’s any other questions please go and post them and be prepared to list any stock she had as well so here’s our control group major points here and focal point obviously is an extreme Trey Smith new extreme so we got at least a 60 1/8 retracement high to low back to the high you can see the focal points coming into the market 38.2 61 8th here’s where we get our 2311 little bit that would come in at 10 this was coming at 27 alright so this is the ratio this is not driving any kind of value from this pattern from this scheme alone there’s other things that are involved but I’m just pointing out that 61 8th and a leg down that’s extended by 38 – let’s see how the rest of the market is doing compared to that this is one reason why extending down this week comes as a bit of a surprise a bit of a surprise even though we already identified that the Dallas will outperforming the broader Market meeting that they got money they pay for more fiduciary institutional money that has to be in stocks even when it’s not wild about the market was getting overweight on Blue Chip quote on quote so we knew we were into a topping mode but what was surprising is that the bounce reaction or replacement of that first down leg didn’t get to the 61 a so there wasn’t as much of a move into the safe for stocks that it’s may be much more of a problem for the market because if institutional type of money to douchery money is literally moving out of stock. So that they’re not getting overweight Dow stock they’re just getting out we don’t stop at 23 a bassist S&P we don’t stop at 2317 we don’t stop at 2310 there’s a much bigger decline underway but anyway just to make that comparison is that the blue-chip didn’t really bounce that much before extending down and now rather than this leg extending to a 38 to only 6:10 to do a 61 8 in fact the dump of the Dow stocks relative to the broader Market is a little exaggerated here where it wasn’t a little more so exaggerated then it was they said yes but when we compare we can see that you go back to mid February we are still getting to some degree Mark it’s coming into unison let’s see how the speculative interest is going another reason why this week’s drop is a little suspicious or a little surprising is that a big is underway of course Rite Aid has here and then lower highs here there’s not even a comparison to make 38.2% retracement 61:8 this is a replacement this is an extension by 61/8 the interim low that smt’s and dad are both broke this week it helped on and Qs on what should represent the spec you would have interest and I did a lot of that is reflection Apple but it’s more than that so here’s Apple right and here’s the big Target that we had but still ranging around it Netflix still up there or recently up there up their Facebook so it’s not just Apple it is still it is still scattered about the interest Amazon at least holding up so but also not extending so we can’t really describe it to or tribute it to just one but the nature of the MDX does allow it to outperform based on the performance of a handful so just another reason why is somewhat surprising the drop was I mean it happened where it should have happened and it went to where it should have gone but the timing is what if she loved it the timing is one is she loved it and that it interrupted the potential for one more higher high first is another issue the bottom line is we could still get a shower or pull back slightly lower pull back but keep this sat at Shiloh pull back over all bottom for a one-week put some money One or two days and then be back off to be testing the house High Point Andrews holding up but not extending does not mean reverse down on a dime baby nautic if it is like Amazon which I see I believe that the stock request right if it’s like an Amazon Wish printed up fresh high this week that’s one thing that that can reverse down on a dime and it did because it didn’t really pretty much of the high fresh high and it wasn’t part of an uptrend it was just a upper end of the range thing Pro but a Facebook yeah right here there’s a fresh chicken reverse down on a dime absolutely but this is them the more natural consequence of that because you don’t get that kind of ongoing extended Trend and then suddenly wants and do it down trim correction sure you get it correct you get then it looks say this is it we don’t say that we do know with a hundred percent degree of certainty that this is the beginning of it no to anticipate so this is what I call pivotal High the high prior to the actual High the retest of big Trend changes just don’t happen so abruptly there were covered so we know we’re going to now what was that other one 4115 did we get there the opening print above all others not much but it’s not but there’s not enough of that in the the end of the what I suppose my question 2275 okay I think our numbers are a little different here let me know what day in November you’re talking about the market to retracement would have sucked when I moved in new house be less that if the correction 1 / 261 8th Avenue and it which is awesome question because on the one hand a shower pull back leaves the mortgage closer and proximity to the prior high so it’s easier to get to it and threw it 6168 Richmond is actually more constructive because it cleans out the market we can did Longs and get some or shorts in there or at least less exposure if it’s a longer drawn-out move it if it’s a more aggressive move either one of those tens to make the various sentiment index is more bearish witch from a country in perspective than to lose more bullish so creative bigger base is the answer create a bigger base a deeper correction create so much more room to the upside much more momentum that can be created just stopping the answer there we can say six of one half a dozen of the other there is a deciding factor though and it is what was the origin what was the top that led to their placement so if this sad ascending triangle where to produce a 38 to retrace meant whatever leg and you want to go with November’s low I-20 2075 ish 2080 call it 38 to betray Smith gets his back down into these lower price that if you have to Beaver tested gets his past this lower Pryor High to the next lower Pryor High that’s an opportunity to clean out the market pretty considerably what happens if we have to do is 61 eight we get under these under this consolidation that’s where difficult to recover going to get really in the weeds here because as I said the determining factor is what kind of selling pressure led to that so here’s our pattern does Triangle let’s give it as much power as we can there’s a 60181 extension of that triangle coinciding with the 38.2% retracement of this up like 161 8th projection of that 61/8 or any kind of an extension that is a 60181 60181 261 please give me very constructive they’re not mainstream they are definitely more representative Mass psychology that it would coincide with the 38.2 I wouldn’t look at that is being a speculative pull back no be pretty sad if we had to extend down past the 261 8 we’re no longer anchored to this pattern think it’s so extended that price action is no longer influenced by this but buy New Perspectives that came into the market yeah the 61 a replacement of this late at that point could produce about the rally but from where from too deep to be attracted back up to that I so lot of mainstream stuff for mainstream to the degree that there is Fibonacci analysis that is mainstream is just going to look at the lake that got us there and determine a correction of that but it has to be taken to another level which is I just I think I portrayed pretty accurately can get pretty deep in the weeds you have to look at what sort of action is producing it pot leaf on it from the November 7th question I was thinking that I move to 2275 with that have a new high but not romantic that’s possible a lot of it then just as I pointed out this pattern that got this leg going measurements of it will be important so will measurements of what if in fact 2275 holds so will measurements of the base or the actual pattern that forms here if it develops quickly and doesn’t allow a lot of time for accumulation 4 Bit Stronger hands to come in and have positions to defend against pullbacks or being well rewarded they buy pull backs and help to produce higher highs if it’s just a really quick reaction up probably only shallow or high is produced if that this has been a pattern of the last several days what I expected to persist at least Monday yes we’re getting to the end of the road here on the decline you know it’s gotten very high profile in the last couple weeks or the last week I’m sorry because of the slope because we speaking your prices are now if we got more weakness Monday afternoon similar to what you’re describing afternoon weakness afternoon weakness after new week this afternoon weakness that would be part of the same pattern and we’d expect a fresh loaf but it could turn right back around the next day remember at the bottom that we were tracking previously when did it finally bottom right in here what was the first indication that a bottom of that of reversal may actually be fun we had indications of a bottom probably for me because they were prior eyes are being tested what gave us an indication that momentum may be reversing up it was when we finally got a positive close right in here and then more so when we got a second consecutive positive close on the next day he heard something about that first positive clothes that we got of the entire sequence it’s still contain the fresh does that mean it was the bottom now we still had something else to contend with and then the pattern stop that is there’s a rally into the clothes as we talked about 2 weeks ago when we were described discussing this pattern there was still potential for a pulled back but it oughta be recovered in fact there you go so it’s longer and drawn-out real real turning points maybe not real long turning point but this was not arbitrated accomplish something turning points real turning points aren’t just a matter of changing one feature to the pattern that got to that extreme so while the afternoon action would be relevant it won’t be a determination won’t be isolated to that one feature or on the market if there’s more let me know but would pose questions but otherwise I did see some stop request earlier