Saturday Review’s recording (for 4/22/17) …Reconnecting.
Did you know this week’s price action formed an uptrend? The wide, choppy range might not have felt like it, but the definition of higher highs and higher lows was fulfilled. At least, that’s S&Ps. The Dow probed its prior low during the week, the same relative prior low that S&Ps were attacking before this week began. Meanwhile, NDX soared. This is a sloppy market, an opportune time for a broad move that brings back a consistency able to launch a more productive trend. All of which is described — and more — during this week’s Saturday Review…
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
GDXJ, AMZN, AMD, GDX, PCLN
\alright so it is Saturday it’s time for the Saturday review and we have something kind of a stealth something when you look at the market as a whole or in a bigger picture might not look like it there’s a trend line drawn from the high to its subsequent High through the next time that was attacked this week kind of the definition of a downtrend to downtrend is actually an ongoing series of lower lows and lower highs as well so looks like a downtrend well it is kind of a downtrend even though the lower 3 or 4 weeks old but if you look at this week this week which started by gapping up and rallying throughout the day inside day on Tuesday gapped up on Wednesday close negative that didn’t prevent Thursday getting up probably higher highs and a new High clothes for the week that even though yesterday closed negative was still this penultimate High clothes of the week an uptrend tune-up trend of sorts more so than the downtrend that I just put it out of the high and March is a downtrend because that downtrend well I’m certainly has lower house is a little weak on the lower lows the interim lower those should ongoing series of lower Eyes Lover Lowe’s lower lower lower lower lower lower your ongoing series of higher higher higher higher low or high or low in fact even before we got into Thursday that was the one Saving Grace two Wednesdays close which had rejected at all times of all times to reject a probe loveprize it was done on Wednesday Wednesday of expiration week FedEx my watex signal said that’s Barrett there’s a few other things we look at the setup has to be right to even be able to make that comparison the timing window of the test the timing would have the rejection of several other things but ultimately Wednesday by the nature of what it tested and when and how that resolved triggered veresh FedEx and that said nothing about Thursday although Thursday’s price action could further inform the signal signal at that point doesn’t inform Thursday or even Friday morning for that matter it’s Friday afternoon that they wed x is supposed to reveal some sort of influence I did indeed it did seem to it seemed to reveal some sort of influence verus influence remember when X is not apply to Friday morning Friday morning did Trend down but immediately at noon bounce that had been underway for the biased Amendment slow failed largely retraced and aggressively were traced by the way that’s a pretty interesting feature the origin never recovered so the afternoon would remain Under Pressure even though big downtrend into the afternoon into the BIOS environment greeting the by its environment substantially lower fresh session was from that point on good balance maybe just did that for a moment maybe it’s bounce was simply need jerk reaction to thecall the unpredictable and that is a headline a headline that came from the administration claiming to be or promising for apps to be a few days away from next week I’m failing a tax reform plan that sort of turn things around we hadn’t yet even though the bouncing it was being probed head and get violated it hadn’t yet reverse the trend backup would you look at that serves that need your reaction up the balance of the session just fluctuated around it and there was an opportunity couple opportunities here to break higher and lower it and neither one so basically the bearish wed x so on all days was triggered of course on Wednesday Wednesday which it’s so it was a pretty big session the Gap up needed to extend and it didn’t and the balance of the session trended down into negative territory in the one Saving Grace to that where was closing above its prior low maintaining the up trim but as I said if it still because it’s because it hasn’t been very productive relatively speaking of it’s certainly 23 23 24 to 2359 58th and change so relatively the relative to the decline just ranging sideways that’s after having stop on Friday last Friday someone optimistic we short very natural attraction very natural attraction to the three week prior so that is the gap down to 2321 so the context for this week’s bounce already somewhat suspect because 2321 the gap down 3 to 4 weeks ago right in front so there’s no other load oakbriar low between last Friday’s low and that gap down so anything that stuff is in there and interferes with the natural testing of that is typically temporary so still looking for this to fail there was some potential for instance on Wednesday if that were to have extended to get the 55 that was tested on Thursday about 55 the next Target is 6061 Thursday went out testing 55 overlapping 55 it was a late dip down from 55 too late to indicate its rejection into shallow the 5223 52 held as support into the clothes instead of breaking lower so there’s still potential to bounce anyway although the various wed x says from almost the moment of Monday’s open through the morning there will be a bearish influence just as there was a bad influence from the moment beginning Friday afternoon through the clothes so the various influence pretty immediate Friday afternoon but ultimately I sort of subdued or constrained restrain if there’s restrained verus influence on Friday afternoon or influence of the way that tends to be much more exaggerated Monday morning what we don’t have what the signal doesn’t control with the letterdoesn’t control is the open so that applies to Post open in other words the opening print could be flat and then we get an aggressively bear exception morning that is the open could get down and then trim down from there the Oakland could also Gabba which would be interesting if it were a significant enough Gap up because well there’s no requirement to test 23 6061 it would find some substantial resistance there both from downtrending resistance and just that being the next objective above 2355 really at this point having been 258 more like noise around 55 that would really stressed the rubber band if we were to come in here on Monday with a Gabba that had overnight tested 23 6061 or Gap up to it that tried flipping up to it did look up to it to test it and didn’t extend higher or we’d anticipated wouldn’t extend her that would be a pretty substantial short answering up here at the open and literally the balance of the session could look like this shouldn’t be expecting it for the morning being influenced by the bear attacks but again there is no open in the next set up there’s just for the mornings by a switch still we’re looking in the contact 2321 this is just a temporary and we already had it for so long anyway looking pretty much 2321 2311 and these deeper levels that I have identified their the room for no ways so the roof for noise under 2311 is 23 basically 2307 we’re really starting to look more at that much deeper of a but all of that remember all of that is within the context of being just a temporary this whole corrective this all down like being just a correction that then launches presumably a retest of the high potentially I knew bowling unless 2311 2307 Fales the whole in which case this just gets to be overwhelming there’s a bigger bigger picture so rather than stopping as a percentage retracement basically of this up like as long as it’s correction or its pull back has been ongoing starting to reach that point where if it’s not getting a correction out of the way and resuming this Rally’s momentum or trend then this roundno longer relevant this trend no longer and play the longer than it takes to work it out and then alternate Lee the deeper that that work at requires because it starts taking out prior loves we start with literally reversing the trend and the next stop as far as that goes maybe not instantaneously but something under this like another hundred points 200 points alright question 2375 citygate we’re going to do so let’s look at that from because 2355 held his resistance instead of indicating the 23 6061 was in play and it’s not the downtrend it’s so that indicates the trend reversing its a Pryor Pryor live so taking out the downtrend resistance at 23 6061 is not actually predictive you can see some inflected Behavior there that doesn’t mean that it’s durable or that closing about it is going to require putting anything else into play or extending to the next subject but the last Touch of that trend line anyways still get to be relevant and that’s basically back here on the fomc minutes release that morning actually I was short of 75 there’s an over but there’s only one in three minute over but are a size by the sake of a single Tech but any case that’s that being the last touch of the trend line it’s recovery with that indicate that the entirety of the trend line is likely being we traced so that doesn’t change very little can change in a chart but the objective than of breaking the downtrend and that doesn’t mean breaking the line itself but it’s last connector should be to buy should be to retrace the entirety of the trailer back to its anchor that’s the high and that’s why I say presumably if we get into rally mode at some point the objective isn’t just to retest the high but potentially to put in a new Bo Market from up fresh flow from here from here we haven’t yet established weather weather the recovery if there were recovery would be based on accumulation of based on just stay over sold condition but we do make an assumption on a much deeper pull back from a fresh what would you make an assumption at this stage what would be a third level oh or second actually that there would be a new bull market under one alright comparisons among the so yes I just was a is in a uptrend for the week but relatively speaking just a correction and left outstanding attractions below Adele a little different the Dell which I did not make a higher low in the middle of the week instead made a little low so not at all the same pattern at this point coming off of marches low arches high that is you can see differences in the trims notindicative of the market overall it’s really sloppy but it has gone on to retest it’s prior low if we do get a bottom in here if in fact S&P do sell off Monday maybe even more so than just Monday morning maybe into the week and coordinate and of coordinating with the down with a fresh low the dad doesn’t have to do that The Dalles already done that a little a performance by the Dow might indicate little more stability coming not that produces would be that much more durable just that I’d be looking for on a retest of the low if the dollar up performing not producing a fresh loaf while I have some peas work if that were to happen I consider looking at that for signs of an ear trim bottom and then meanwhile he istook out last to the bounce off of Last Friday slow and really ran with it yes was closing almost back down to Monday’s up and get nq’s we’re pulling back pretty much to test lower prioritize and ultimately whole so this speculative aspect seems very much alive just know the reason why I’m looking for The Berrics watex looking for the retest of the Lowe’s not looking for that to be falling off the edge of the cliff once we get the S&P if we can get the S&P is to complete their pull back that we do get a rally back to the house that’s speculative I don’t ever really so much as so much yes a performance at least does suggest that there’s not a not as great a fear as we tend to see the conclusions that are being thrown out there headlines okay any other questions go ahead and post them to the market otherwise RV well I guess we could start looking at stocks