Saturday Review’s recording (for 4/23/16) …
One of my favorite sessions ever. Of course, its focus was the market’s bigger picture: how it got here, why, where it’s going, and why.
That included a review the bullish WedEX signal which gave us last Monday’s morning-long buy signal. Then we jumped forward to Friday’s unfulfilled upside and how sellers proved themselves to be weak-handed. The current setup was compared to the midweek OPEC rumor’s weak-handed rally, as a guideline for Sunday and Monday’s resolution.
The conversation got a little thicker when we discussed correlations and decoupling among markets. But that was nothing compared to our deep discussion of templates — what they mean, and what they don’t. We dipped into some of my methodology’s aspects that I don’t discuss often, so don’t watch without a strong cup of coffee, or a big bottle of scotch.
No stock analyses were requested.
04/23/2016 09:24:09 If, Then… Market Timing: The charting application is being difficult this morning, please bear with me… Thank you
04/23/2016 09:35:12 David B: Good Morning
04/23/2016 09:35:13 sm: audio is good. no charts
04/23/2016 09:37:20 jp: gm
04/23/2016 09:38:26 sm: saw them for about 2 seconds
04/23/2016 09:38:44 sm: good to go
04/23/2016 10:08:03 David B: what closing high would then say we are no longer in a bear market?
04/23/2016 10:14:42 David B: so we need to start distribution before we call a top?
04/23/2016 10:15:02 David B: start to see distribution
04/23/2016 10:22:28 sm: You’re saying that the price action in March was ‘accumulative’? That seems to contradict with it being a ‘topping template’. Can you clarify?
04/23/2016 10:23:14 sm: That’s what it was called at the time
04/23/2016 10:24:31 sm: But now we’re calling the price action ‘accumultive’. Is there a way that we can recognize that in real time so that we’re no distracted by a ‘topping template’?
04/23/2016 10:25:36 sm: – –
04/23/2016 10:26:11 sm: It doesn’t help AFTER the fact to characterize the price action as ‘accumulative’
04/23/2016 10:29:05 sm: – –
04/23/2016 10:32:46 sm: Even though it’s accumulkation, can’t we tell that it’s weak-handed based on the timing windows?
04/23/2016 10:36:33 sm: — I agree that it was an important decision point, but the idea that ‘accumulation’ was taking place connotes to me that we might have known better that the outcome was going to be up, rather than seeing the ‘topping template’ be fulfilled.
04/23/2016 10:36:48 David B: when you say we need to gap up to gain traction what is considered a gap up. Is this a level above the high for the day?. I’m assuming the opposite for sellers below the days low?
04/23/2016 10:38:37 sm: ok, thanks for giving time to that discussion.
04/23/2016 10:39:26 Josey: If the currencies and metals are to trend down monday morning, wouldn’t it take the market with it?
04/23/2016 10:40:00 David B: yes
04/23/2016 10:40:54 David B: session high
04/23/2016 10:41:16 David B: ok thanks
04/23/2016 10:42:57 Josey: currency
04/23/2016 10:42:58 jp: si
04/23/2016 10:43:42 David B: even we get a large rally in oil is oil becoming decoupled with the market. what i’m saying we don’t need oil t get us out above the 2120. it seems like the dollar is the key in all for the next rally
04/23/2016 10:48:15 David B: we also have a fed meeting and 1Q GDP this week do you think the market will focus on this at all?
04/23/2016 10:56:02 Josey: Thank you!
04/23/2016 10:56:49 David B: thanks
04/23/2016 10:56:53 jp: ety
04/23/2016 10:56:54 sm: thx