Saturday Review’s recording (for 6/10/17) …Repent!
Friday’s big reversal in S&Ps and bigger plunge in NDX aren’t the end of the world. Not, yet. Assuming no substantial gap down Monday, there’s still potential to retest Friday’s highs, even a requirement for a new high close. Specific levels and characteristics of each, and the proprietary indications behind them, are discussed in this week’s Saturday Review.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
JPM, GS, MS, AGN, MOS, CRM, AMD, LITE
transcript: —————– (06/10/2017 09:32) —————–
David B: Good Morning
Mark Glezer: gm
charlie: tks
—————– (06/10/2017 09:49) —————–
Mark Glezer: bearish relationship b/w indexes needs to manifest over a few sessions to be credible, current could have been just one day wonder, right?
—————– (06/10/2017 09:50) —————–
Bill G: Do you expect continued rotation into IWM?
—————– (06/10/2017 09:54) —————–
Mark Glezer: do you this might be the start of higher volatility period the mkt was lacking for r a long time?
Mark Glezer: do you think?
—————– (06/10/2017 09:56) —————–
David B: This could be money managers that are underperforming rotating over the next couple of weeks into chasing sectors that have underperformed as part of quarterly window dressing?
ljr: stocks: AGN, MOS
ljr: LITE
—————– (06/10/2017 09:58) —————–
Bill G: With Dow, IWM, XLF and XLE up, it did not look like a move to cash?
—————– (06/10/2017 10:01) —————–
Mark Glezer: how long do you think this top would take to form – a week or two possible?
David B: can one assume if the market is up or down on a friday is not strong hands?
—————– (06/10/2017 10:06) —————–
David B: closing under what level for two consective sessions would take one more close high off the table for awhile?
—————– (06/10/2017 10:10) —————–
David B: CRM,AMD
—————– (06/10/2017 10:22) —————–
ljr: any preview levels for wedex?
ljr: ok.
Bill G: Thanks
David B: Thanks
ljr: thx
charlie: tks
—————– (06/10/2017 10:24) —————–
Mark Glezer: thx much
===
phonetic transcript: okay good morning good morning and welcome welcome back Saturday Saturday review starting now and the first of all thank you everyone for taking time from Saturday from the weekend I have to make it worthwhile help me out any questions any comments when they occur to you please don’t hesitate to post them I make them around in them naturally or I may benefit we made all benefit from the prompt so how are we we are sick not me I pointed this out in the announcement for the Saturday review the market has a little problem here now if this were the extent of it nobody get rid of this app tation notation anyway if that were the extent of it that is just the S&P is or if the rest of the major indexes look like this we wouldn’t have such a problem wouldn’t have such a problem but in this case what we have is in the reason let me just sorry the reason why we wouldn’t have such a problem is because it looks horrible that yesterday from this trading range from this trading range there’s finally a break out if you aren’t looking at the days you would know that opportunity and that was to actually close on a break out yes but also on a new trend extreme and just like last Friday we were here 1 week ago today and requirement for 2415 got 20 for 12:50 In the Heat of it all all held number of other lower lower levels you got the pivotal low basically sat as critical of a pivotal low that the pivotal low of the trading range that tried to break out yesterday that held all of those held their Tessa support and so that is recovered through the clothes and so there’s potential to have trapped shorts near-term sewing pressure is done what is distribution distribution is strong handed sellers or strong hands selling into strength strong hands big money they can’t get away with selling into weakness when they sell in the weakness there is one thing inherent and one thing implicit one thing and here it is if they’re selling in the weakness and they’re strong hands are just going to make price even worse and evaluations if they were locking in China Wok in on the cell they’re already gone by the time their next round of chairs yet for sale implicit if there’s strong hands and they’re selling that they are selling because they force evaluations dropping anyway so that’s why strong hands tend to sell a head of that valuation turn this would be distribution the past week this is an attempt to get to another level this is basically I think of a helium balloon hot air balloon dumping all of its ballast or a lot of ballast and then it lives up again catches another current this is a pretty quick turn so we now have a by the way these sellers didn’t get anywhere to the degree that they were that productive they were probably that productive because it was a Friday what were they selling what was getting hit even more so so that we can go over to and kids to NASDAQ MDX tremendous tremendous downside Friday very shallow up side by the way much shallower break shall we attempt at the same time but by the time that so here’s a trend up around pulls back here’s a trend and you can see the education and why not I mean everybody sees that there or that’s where they decided things were ever bought are they pulling the reins and the market collapsed but it’s covered it’s a little hesitant to get through there so the same level and then you can see very clearly the Gap up the steeper slope the Breakout the difference sentiment that is a lower Pryor hi it’s not any less relevant than what I just described with that synthes they tested the lower end of their ring and recovered the equivalent here for smt’s would have been a little bit higher balance and through the open certainly probing under the week’s range but then to close up here huge differential but similar character because once and q’s sought-after Next Level look at have a just likes the right through that lower Pryor High that was a good candidate didn’t matter but found a lower-priced it closed above it so somewhat similar to S and q’s have found a lower pressure high in the near-term that robs sellers of a lot of traction just as it did in es one caveat is that this is a weekend you know how to time heals all wounds it can do the opposite not make a wound any worse but make a victory long seem forgotten that was a victory If This Were a Monday or Thursday pattern I would definitely be looking at this bouncing bouncing overnight holding a retest the next day that would be absolutely that template is very difficult to shake when that template is shaking win regardless of what I just described having held lower prioritize or some relevant support through the clothes when that’s broken anyway most often that’s over the course of a weekend time heals all wounds it also makes those victories seen forgotten so how do we know what would happen well on Monday we won’t just dip back down Post open to Friday’s Lowe’s on Monday if in fact Fridays drop and regardless of having bounce to close back above these lower price if Friday’s drop is going to extend its going to be by new sponsorship this sponsorships done that’s what closing back above that successfully tested support indicates that sponsorship is satisfied this is nq’s don’t forget so Monday will Gap down if it’s going to be a bear session it’s going to start by gapping down in a sense of extending Fridays to climb we can also rally org app up or something very substantial to the outside overnight and then back down intraday but for extending down deepening Fridays drop it would have to start by going down similar time frame on Monday even if it’s later tested or if it has been tested over night and being recovered through 9:45 that doesn’t mean it’s straight up from there but the resolution is up just a matter of timing backing and filling if necessary but sellers for that leg would be done so we normally do this at the end compare the three major indexes Ps and Qs and the Dow that this is a major change normally there’s not such clear evidence of any Trend change that’s really are focal point today because here we just showed ESR control group nq’s a reflection of speculative activity in the to the degree of the Russell or not even a degree but that type of clientele that the Russell attracts NASDAQ Composite these are the bigger if there is a blue chip growth index or growth compilation of stocks it would be the end kids these are and also Blue Chip means by the way more widely followed the longevity of the company’s history the market cap so that big money can move in and out with more liquidity more liquidity than the smaller cap stocks perhaps on par with with the with a GM so Microsoft video the things so when a fiduciary or institutional money or index-tracking brilliant hedge fund wants to increase their exposure to more speculative or economically sensitive components or stocks companies I’m sorry this is where they go so this is a reflection of big money and their taste or appetite for speculative interests let’s look at the opposite end of the spectrum the down the Dell is going to be big money that has to be invested and that’s really the whole point we’re looking at additional monies maybe mutual funds that have a mandate to be invested but they can still in the NuvaRing Oregon indexes where they have two or all they care to is match the markets performance but they are smart enough for their on the forward enough front lines to know that things are shifting or things aren’t going to keep the same Pace or they’ve gotten ahead of themselves and it’s time to rain in their horns a little bit but they have to stay in stock so they go to that blue or chat for the literally literally specifically the Blue Chip specifically the older companies again why we followed huge market cap unlike and q’s very consistent earnings probably dividends more reliable and where they can see why if things hit the fan and that’s of course the Dow and so what are according to the Dow and according to the Dows performance relative to an cues and the gas for that matter what’s the dad doing is this even in the same time frame it is night and day poked its head up yesterday morning already been doing that today yes back above its prior Lowe’s that have been probed the debt and q’s back above it substantially lower Lowe’s lower Pryor High as that is to at least told them through the clothes Dow was recovering for a new High clothes now wasn’t a new High clothes are closed above all prioritize but it was a new High clothes new trend I close the Dow isn’t predictive it doesn’t lead the way so it’s not requiring their requiring there to be an eventual are close but we do still have in fact from last week in the ES we do still have outstanding that requirement because even though yesterday morning probed higher highs it didn’t close higher this new trend I close on a Friday just for being a new trend I close on a Friday requires an eventual third an eventual higher clothes new trend I close which by the way not just optimally but means above all prioritize above Fridays hi that’s still outstanding we didn’t have to get at close about Friday for 4350 until Friday failed to hold that probe there just closed above these prize but now the requirements even greater which is fine I’ll be we still have projections at 220-445-2453 this is Basis set so okay so probably not done got over butter size at yesterday’s high we’ve got oversold are one minute after the open away from the reaction to a headline to produce the when tractor is done prematurely premature ends to selling pressure in other words impatiently rallying or one of the signs of a top forming not that a top has formed here’s impatient growling remember Thursday sellers didn’t gain or Thursday sellers gained attraction for the reference the bias environment was exited onto the noon hour slow in the final hour was entered lower the only way that’s overcome durably is by gapping up above the priors High or at least gapping up to it and extending through it through the open for the opening 15 minutes about Tony yesterday didn’t do that yesterday’s open gapped up to well Gap and extended to Thursday’s hide but by 9:45 had not recovered it that doesn’t prevent extending higher just like Thursday’s sellers having gained traction didn’t require or didn’t didn’t resolve down there’s ways around at gapping up above Thursday’s high would have done away with these sellers having indicated that they’re stronger hands or growing because the market extended higher anyway it was built on quicksand that’s the whole reason why we even considered a cell signal on a Friday probing new eyes why we knew that if this had gotten if this is been triggered that meltdown quote on quote was likely so now that’s happened in itself out of the way it was on a Friday it looks like it was because of the size but to give away said it’s not the size of the move on a Friday and also that that question do I think this might be the start of higher volatility. The market was lacking for a long time yes I think necessarily when the market or when the direction changes that it has to be that it’ll have to be a much more volatile. And that means it can mean trending throughout I mean an entire session can open here and trim down through the clothes and a very orderly fashion and still be more volatile if it’s entered a range is compared to Prior ranges but I do look for a lot of choppiness and the next leg down again sooner that this late or that this sooner that the wants to get past this it can do so by immediately resuming the rally on Monday and be done with it but if it does it in a way that is not as likelier but still just as much potential to First retest Fridays how I first neutralize the requirement outstanding for new High clothes you had a more solid top or or more developed top then the path down is initially going to be chopping and their form of more volatile question this could be money managers that are underperforming underperforming okay this could be money managers that are underperforming rotating over the next couple weeks into chasing sectors that have underperformed as part of cordially window dressing question and the point is to the end of the quarter off and with that produces is chasing the winners so if they’re going to chase underperformers the laggards or rotate out of the winners or do any rotation at quarter and usually that’s as it’s called window dressing because they want to pretty up the place so they’ll be chasing the leadership but as we saw yesterday I haven’t investigated them here for us but as we saw yesterday Facebook’s look all the way to the right Amazon for Jeff Beezus write down to a very critical support almost Apple Microsoft Google Netflix that’s the huge discounts here these are still substantial performers and so it’s not a stretch to look for the big money doing their window dressing taking advantage of these suddenly lower prices question with Russell retailers wives Wednesday cordially chairman press conference Q&A those are always fun to trade Thursday the Boe Friday boj and quadruple which expiration so definitely a lot of catalysts out there question can win assume if the market is up or down on a Friday that it’s not strong hands not necessarily it’s one of the other way around that if there’s a strong move on a Friday afternoon and morning about the continuation of a move but if 4 if we’re looking at any kind of new new paradigm so if the market have been trending even if it hadn’t been trending down just been trending big big days and Friday went Friday afternoon was big that wouldn’t speak to anything but on Friday afternoon that’s just not win big hands strong hands are acting not predominantly they’ve already positioned based on where they anticipate any economic report that might be coming out and there really wasn’t any as the cause they are more more active in the middle of the week that’s where we get our wet X Wednesday expiration in Decatur again because they need to liquidate question closing at what level for two consecutive sessions would take one more clothes high off the table for a while there really isn’t a setup like that I appreciate that the point of the question but they that would be a totally separate signal in conflict and we wouldn’t be able to it would be having the unfinished business above having the unfinished business above smps requiring a third or an adventure close and then suddenly there were a trend change signal for instance like this was an opportunity here closing under Wednesday’s low the interim low between to new highs not a great one because there wasn’t a new High clothes at it was that that was an interim love but that sort of setup that if that’s what you’re after that would just be in conflict with the outstanding expectation or requirement for for a new I close it wouldn’t be it wouldn’t be a function of it so wouldn’t set at or delay it it would just be a challenge to juggle them alright okay let’s do stocks real quickly I have a hard finish today in other words got to finish this sat basically 15 minutes from now 25 after will do as many stops as we can do in that time and if I can’t get to them all I’ll do them later but as far as Saturday review I see a couple before however say it you know last week I kept promising to get to the Prudential stock and I never did interesting set-up say had been very distributed in fact let’s do couple so I really want to bring those back so for instance JPM so through last week massive topping Head and Shoulders type action first warning shot across the bow nice weeks this week I think there’s a lot of talk of Dodd-Frank that’s driving some I don’t get why that is beneficial to the bigger financial institutions that basically have Protections in Dodd-Frank from barriers to entry or higher operating costs to their smaller competitors but it seems to be working out anyway cancels did well I think this is a correction now Goldman nice week but you can see relative to prioritize nothing accomplished except a lot of volume coming into higher for Lowe’s on Morgan but generally distributive patterns okay so let’s do allergen keep posting stocks of the two from everyone and come back around also pretty distributive pattern on allergenflyer distribution up here so my question is is that already played out the time for a correction this is if you ever see this level or this range I should say up to 264 we’ve already had some glimpses of the lower end of the range 255 that’s a very tough area to get through I suspect if it has higher highs in it back above 236 for instance there’s a chance at one more thrust Tire I would look for some sort of probe above it briefly say to fill a gap and then to resume the decline but meanwhile back under 205 says the decline is already presumed I would be awesome it’s the right down to support here right this resistance at 12:50 support down in this range down to 1064 pretty well to find range pretty good at defining that range which by the way tried momentarily breaking higher on Thursday really good volume into that into that entire balance It really looks like Friday is broader Market problems threw a wrench in amd’s intent which still seems to be to break higher having avoided this cell signal having held this support so unless AMD and Intel AMD would have closed under 1064 it looks like it is trying to chip away at resistance and it is trying to extend higher as a trade and look for the 1465 15 area I’m still need to get out of a 1466 to Signal a noob rally what do we have up here when I started Tesla ready for 10 the tank stocks this is just been obviously it amazing stock it’s been one of the ugliest patterns this was a very difficult. To chart then add seems to be a little more predictable lot of resistance up here and like to see a retest of that high but at some point these lower prioritized and a 323 that is substantial move in the scheme of things but if that were to break lower this is already corrected there’s no support here other than lower prioritize and a book ettore bounce off of that wooden next Target 280 20% down side any others several minutes here but if not that more that it okay twice any preview levels for wed x Wednesday morning appreciating have a great weekend