Saturday Review’s recording (for 6/24/17) …Seasonal influences dead ahead.
Only one piece of unfinished business above is outstanding, and it doesn’t prevent a deeper decline. That doesn’t prevent it from being tested next. This week is the quarter’s last. Proverbial end ‘o quarter “window dressing” is a common practice among portfolio managers. It’s interesting that institutional bigger money appears to have prepared a couple of weeks ago. Rotation out of speculative issues dominating NDX has helped to fuel the Dow to sharply higher levels.
As liquidity begins to evaporate ahead of next weekend’s 4-5 day holiday weekend, bigger money will need to finish positioning by Wednesday. A few significant intraday moves are more possible during the first part of the week, and swarms of smaller surges and plunges could define price action into the weekend.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
NFLX, GOOGL, AMZN, AAPL, FB, VZ, UA, CMG, ADBE, GE, VRX
good morning good morning and welcome it is Saturday it’s time for the Saturday review thank you for taking time from your weekend to be here as I go through the overview of the market feel free to and please post any questions I may not get to them right away but I promise I will come back to them today’s the 24th right tomorrow is the 25th let’s see end of the quarter end of the quarter and unlike most quarters end of the quarter is also for its seasonal influences running into a holiday that is in the US the July 4th Independence Day we’ve got an entire week there is no abbreviated Trading July 4th is a Monday or as I’d Life 3 is a Monday and it will be a half day of trading through 1:15 Eastern to live for closed for the holiday and then back to it and it’s really difficult during a into a holiday with especially one that is in the middle of the week so it lengthens it out it’s not really a three-day holiday it’s more like A4 Day Holiday and even more so in that swing day is on a Monday instead of on Friday Thanksgiving holiday for instance is Thursday’s and then Friday is a half day Friday is more widely attended then Monday will be the Friday of Thanksgiving holiday but Friday of this week won’t be terribly busy Friday 3 now 4 Day weekend actually get stretched into A5 Day weekend for and a half day which never really is that when you include travel so you can see why Friday afternoon is not going to be very relevant even if something happens even if something happens in the range play today Wednesday afternoon Wednesday is close will be looking at Wednesday all day pretty much for anything relevant and what that means is if the move is going to be underway or completed anytime soon that has to happen by Wednesday is closed at the latest has to happen by Wednesday is closed at the latest so are we anywhere that is vulnerable to capable to interested in breaking out well there’s a prevailing trend there is a prevailing Trend it’s up up and recently up at until Wednesday unless Wednesday Tuesday Wednesday what going into the end of the week same token if this rally wants to preserve itself so that end of the weekend into the last day Dana ordan a half today’s of end of the weekend it has the ability to absorb selling pressure more easily the next couple of days are then become likelier to rally and the rally sharply again thinking terms of limited time bigger or steeper moves so a steeper move would very likely be very obvious Monday and there’s not much to add to that that Monday is open there’s not an obvious steep move under way then we’re probably able to cross that scenario out for a list and and that probably means gapping Up Above This Auraria return to it return to it again all the while 2438 is the bounces Peak all the while each of these days buyer’s aren’t gaining traction for their efforts or not they’re making morning efforts there is a morning surge on Tuesday Thursday there’s one on Friday but they’re giving it up and they’re not extending it to the afternoon so fires aren’t getting any traction for the reference those days so in order to Rally the next day the open has to Gap up above the prior days high if Monday is not opening above the 2338 area it’s not opening above yesterday’s high which is Thursday’s High for opening up and then and quickly extending through then we’re not going to get that rally going and there’s unlike other scenarios or situations there’s no time to delay which means you’re probably extending down and why not the last several days 4 days of this week actually have tested will fill tested retested gaps below and without rejecting them have ultimately chipped away at their support So extending down to a lower low extending down to 24 2415 area just as a consequence punishment for not having attracted sponsorship to buy these discounted levels can I have to discount it even more and there’s no Assurance of any kind of recovery or rally remember the market has a very brief time frame of a very small window if it wants to produce Trend reversal or if it just wants to get a lot of selling out of the way why liquidity is strong enough to absorb it either way don’t have to be bullish or bearish to be open to the potential for not just returning to 2415 the 2415 area where there’s unfinished business Below in 24 1550 but even to Breaking below it to test a lower priority that was narrowly avoided stopping optimistically short of it 4 weeks ago before rallying into what has been at that rally leg that began from stopping optimistically short of a 2399 pull back has held its gone nowhere in the subsequent 3 weeks so you don’t have to be bullish or bearish to be aware that there’s potential or to be open to the potential whether it’s on the way to lower lower Lowe’s or just whether it is to find stronger buyers that clearly aren’t coming out of these levels so that another rally like can begin there is no requirement for any higher hi there’s a structural requirement there was several weeks ago on a Friday a new trend High clothes and a new trends there was a new trend close on a Friday and that requires and eventual hired new trend I close even if there is an immediate pull back as there was even probing it intraday not closing above it the next Friday that didn’t count did not satisfy that objective we got that on Monday so it doesn’t have to be when they were over bought on the three minute and I’m the one minute and even on the one minute make it looks even on the one minute making a lower high if it’s on or not a substantially higher high not a persistently overbought structurally the market has no requirement to trade any higher or as I ever again calculability that afternoon did leave out standing by us up Target at 2454 so calculable e there is one Higher potential the one Higher High remember our highest calculations for the market overall for the rally basis at 424 West 2453 that was meant to within 6 Tix and the bias of Target it was created was created that afternoon so is it a deal-killer for for never having to recover to retest that area let alone satisfy the 2454 it’s not it’s not optimal but it could also be what’s preventing breaking under these gaps not that the market thinks it’s got to get something done above but because it left something on standing above says these sellers aren’t strong handed but that’s it that’s the only thing really at this point structurally nothing calculable something technically not really anything preventing falling down and this is not an accumulative pattern silver not rallying sharply Monday we’re probably not rallying this week or the only way we rally this week is if we get to sharply lower levels quickly in Topeka today on Wednesday so that sellers are pretty much done and not necessarily out of new sponsorship with the market can just bounce so let’s wrap up the market look with the comparison on me a comparison of onions because of course led the way down or at least they’ve collapsed without the broader Market collapsing so seemingly yeah it’s certainly a reflection of the things it cetera Facebook Amazon Apple Netflix Google Tesla that are themselves running out of running out of Greater Falls and that’s not to say that they’re horrible companies or that they don’t have Bright Futures but they did apparently get a little too close to the Sun and here is Netflix getting into some relevant resistance Google Amazon is a case of its own it had a pretty interesting pretty interesting corporate development with buying a Whole Foods Natalie running into antitrust concerns this is still the same relevant level I’ll move all that forward but I pointed this out last week actually Monday can see that spiked up tested the prior High Byers it’s hovering there Facebook one of the stronger of course Apple this pattern look familiar it’s kind of what recipes are doing right now so lot of dumping if it’s the first leg down it’s in there not Trend reversals apples a good indication in or good representation of how lower prioritize just that’s natural room for noise we can’t yet pronounce apple as having reversed its Trend down for instance so when we go back to nq’s that’s how that plays out but it does reflect since those are Darlings of bitter money that have to limit themselves to larger cap issues because they need to look quiddity it is a reflection of how open they are too or how much they want speculative exposure in their portfoliosthat sank use the Dow we want is the opposite the Dow is if you have to stay long you know there’s let’s take cash out of the equation if you have to be in equities and you’re not interested in the speculative exposure or less so this is where your rotating into so from that performance and from it repeating on consecutive sessions a couple of times now we can assume that there is a trend of rotation by bigger money out of speculative and into safety literally Blue Chip that can only go so far and has there’s no unfinished business above in a doubt either and I don’t mean calculable you because I don’t have calculable objectives on the down and then we’ve got our Focus cruise control group neither here nor there and as we put it out previous chart since that shallow pull back that’s optimistically short of 2399 of actually touching a lower priority before rallying that rally leg was in such a hurry that I forgot to get strong sponsorship behind it strong sponsorship isn’t determined by the degree of a moo but it has stopped in its tracks so question for window dressing absolutely a big in this case and play like to see a Max that out a little too far off connect-r closes yeah that’s much more appropriate nothing says that you peek exactly it on the end of the quarter it’s an attraction but then like musical chairs people keep running around when the Music Stops then they find out where they stand so yeah that is absolutely a potential catalyst what am I and well nq’s at the same time are losing their sponsorship that’s something that has to be realized in the Dow as well this is not a great discounting mechanism alright any stocks that’s really up for the markets please go ahead and post them we did just look at of course the Netflix Google Amazon Apple Facebook neck gotten any prettier so this was the opportunity on a break under 4719 4720 was to complete this down leg targeting 45 4505 which has only been overlapped essentially little bit off on the low bar but in any case and then balance which it did that balance is losing Steam in any case we don’t view the well I can lower the Buy Signal at this break not occurred we still wouldn’t have known the rally was resuming until or that a bounce was anything more than a bounce until it exceeded this 52 area let alone recovered 5365 that’s not the case anymore now that there’s been a fresh lowI know that there’s been a fresh low I can lower the bicycle considerably that is the inflection point that a 48-40 that tells us that a pullback is done meanwhile there is a little delay here hasn’t broken any lower than the objective was to 4505 and there’s room even below that 244 while still getting into the while still being potentially just a bottom and if we dip 244 up I may be able to lower the Buy Signal again under 44 says no that’s a big top and it’s done the right under armour that’s a big support level or big targetedI like the higher highs and higher Lowe’s the calculation calculability the pull backs are significant the relevant this have earnings coming out soon or could this just be a function of portfolios are finished dumping it it’s a nice bottom Fisher and I think we’ve got a pretty good I delete eation of risk at 1870 1868 so long as that holds and now that it’s been tested you really don’t want to see it have to be tested again so long as that holds and now come out of that corrective area 2055 2135that would indicate a bottom is in but you really don’t want to see any lower clothes Chipotle so I have like this from the potential of a bigger bottom forming basically a double bottom what’s occasionally call in Adam and Eve because of the differences the genetic makeup of each this one comes in and bounces this one takes its time getting ready this is the maximum pull back though it’s interesting because this should have been the go-ahead for 7655 which is fine that it’s time was spent up here it’s reacting down to test if 44 476 55 and not to be in recovery mode already is a little disappointing but there’s this room and it’s taking advantage of it down to 418 anything lower than that and we have to question Fab Point whether a bottom is forming still potential but I can’t do is really identify anything up here that’s a cell signal but start getting under 360-7366 and at that point not until that point but certainly after that point any recovery potential just gets put to the back burner this becomes a big distributive pattern Adobe or new software so we did not reveal before extending hire this is interesting because it changes the complexity of this leg doesn’t change the calculation of its objective which is now met which clearly was responsive of the market was responsive to and is now being tested there’s a higher potential outstanding again not have corrected before extending in fact you can see the character changes here it gaps up and takes on a new paradigm that’s my only concern about this is volume we’re getting some volume expansion into the sewing now it’s the selling didn’t isn’t happening in a vacuum at did have news out that would necessarily require some to do surgery or institutional accounts to scale back Justified but we’re going to look at that first low which basically that is the volume is Justified what are looking at the characteristics of it going forward closing under it literally two consecutive lower closes under it what essential II Cielo top it’s not an arbitrary low on two counts what is it’s the prior low which isn’t very comforting for a long because that just means this is an obligatory bounce the others for buyers look at a chart last time okay that’s over to put my limit and magically a balances for only so long of course but there’s also calculable support there so that’s why I asked to break for two consecutive sessions because it’s probably going to be probed and present just a fluke to avoid and resistance is intending to hold that we will know very quickly because pretty much back under 1365 would resume the decline that could be it for buyers of volume suggest otherwise the volume suggest a shallower dip and I really I think a little too too tight on this measurement we we can give it a little bit more room down at 12:50 1352 12:50 1365 to 12:50 so dip down into this range and last opportunity for any kind of a pulled back before extending higher if not already extended this is a big Line in the Sand under 1350 1250 this is only been to regardless of the volume this is only been temporary okay the pretty healthy list hope that helps and if any of these are under any pressure or doing anything significant or questionable during the week please come on back and and request an analysis at that time don’t have to wait till the weekend meanwhile I think that’s it thank you thanks again everyone any questions about this if you’re watching this as a recording just posted to that Comet section we reactivated those with a spam filters so we’re not suddenly getting literally a thousand posts thousand comments to each post everyday much more manageable have a great weekend chart room will be open Sunday night the Adobe has another plan maintenance outage for planned for 4 hours to 2 hours out of the way midnight Sunday night and so we won’t be broadcasting during those hours but I’ll be around to kick it back on when possible and I’ll have it a little bit I don’t have the chart-room open when Globex to start raining again until Adobe takes it down thanks for making everyone have a great weekend take care