Saturday Review’s recording (for 7/15/17) …Out of the muck.
Will the rally rest on its laurels Monday and begin a correction, or will it extend higher impatiently? How deep of a pullback is possible, and what are the consequences to extending instead? We discuss these questions, and others, in this weekend’s Saturday Review.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
ARNA, GWPH, CARA, UA, GILD, VRX, ALGN, ULTA, CTRL, TRUP, X, BAC
okay then good morning recording is going all functions operational thank audio okay you can hear me that’s great good morning and welcome it is Saturday it’s time for the Saturday review pretty easy day yesterday we don’t often get Friday afternoon Rally’s and I have tried but haven’t been able to find the Rhyme or Reason that can be predictive of them even in the morning but everything really in my work anyway is a process of elimination and so the attractions were above the that is any downside attractions we’re pretty much dispensed with at the open when the open didn’t succeed at reversing down on a Friday and on this particular Friday that pretty much zero doubt the likelihood or at least maybe even the potential for reversing down sellers were pretty much marginalized Market went above and beyond and literally fulfilled everything we had had outstanding from several weeks ago three weeks ago well coming up on for couple things didn’t have over butter size of the high but we did have unfinished business from a afternoon by Target that have been created three Mondays ago and it was a very recently or a very fresh young signal not something that have been outstanding not something that it had a lot of sponsorship and it was quickly on influential nevertheless the afternoon did trigger up and so we make note of that sponsorship that’s unfulfilled praise you can say and as I’d like to say it doesn’t prevent detour it just tells us the context in that context tells us how we should expect the market to behave and when the market deviates from that behavior then we have something to consider but in this case that detour in a number of cases tried there were a couple of times when we could have fallen off the edge to a lower level before bottoming before being like clear than to recover but especially over the past week or the last week last Saturday when we were talking we were discussing trying and failing and the skip through the timing windows that were testing them we were able to identify that sellers weren’t getting any traction for those efforts and so week ago when we met the right here we were looking at the potential for full recovery for ultimately ending this decline for all these probes of the prior consolidation that had finally broken higher three-and-a-half 4 weeks ago that all of those probes and failed and that was rewarded this week so Tuesday gapped up and I’m going to we did this during the week I’m going to show the analog somewhat of an analog certainly not the same ultimate resolution but just went out how similar to setup scan develop differently there was no these weren’t sequential so there was no requirement to develop differently but still Aventuras to point out how there’s this down trending resistance and hey gab up substantial Gabba to the upper end of multi-session ranging or multi-session Pryor High that’s here on Wednesday Extenze higher on Thursday and this week extended sharply higher on Friday satisfying as I’d originally put it out there 2454 by Target that have been created several weeks ago the after the detour the room for noise above it likely to be tested two and 24 5650 make note of that 5650 in the morning I buy a sub signal to 2452 25 or try getting 2455 and it was tested and what did I say by 24 5650 the room for noise above 2454 make note of it because despite having Pro intraday here’s 5650 being tested during the afternoon by its environment and as the afternoon by its environment finishes lapsing it lapses between 2:30 and 3 and here it is at 3:50 6:50 it’s probed again big short squeeze into the weekend we traced entirely to 5650 actually testing 3650 overlapping at the closing at 56 that was the closing equivalent comes out of it with a gap up Gap up above multi-session prioritize follows through the next day little more aggressively and then follows through the next day as well now just a little more reserved that last in March April was more reserved in recovery so it’s not a perfect but what’s the what’s the time the same add there for that the market would react similarly Joe price higher even without having to get the Michigan sentiment numbers are the Michigan consumer sentiment numbers so that was already done but the pullback didn’t reverse down digested it for the morning nothing happened in the afternoon this is a lot of short covering we assume it’s short covering that fulfilled objectives 2454 that have been outstanding for almost 4 weeks the room for noise above it 5650 that was likely to be tested because of the delay and getting it actually tried skipped over 24 5225 the mornings bicep Target 5650 actually not well quinca dentally well that was the room for noise above 2454 the prior Target there was outstanding it also measured out to be this afternoon Friday afternoon that was Matt for the equation for price price and what kind of stuff that I’ll do intraday it cetera but on this case or in this case at the end of the day and in this specific case at the end of the week buyers are satisfied demand has little reason to increase unless or except for maybe some follow-through momentum coming out of the weekend Supply apparently is not in is not short at this point there is Supply if Supply were in were limited as of this point at 5650 then probes above it would have closed higher in other words irrelevant timing window that tests irrelevant level would have been exited having exceeded that relevant level just like below these relevant levels of support that were probed during Rovan timing windows with a maintain their breaks it is time in Windows there was maybe one break through a roll of and timing window during the entirety of this 3 + week correction 394 correction but never confirmed at the worst and now we’re saying the opposite above so in other words there’s a reason to man reason why this rally is now ready to at least correct or if not be interesting and the big reason is because Supply has is indicating that it’s at Wing demand headed little bit of a snapshot Friday afternoon but that’s and that’s not a predictive snapshot for a break out but it does give us a glimpse into what sort of sentiment there is and it’s excessive there’s one other reason why we should take seriously Sunday Monday if there’s and what about that in just a moment cuz that’s important under Friday morning Friday morning 4:50 not just Friday morning but probably skipping over a session and back down to Wednesday’s Wednesday mornings highs 4242 is a pretty critical level or influential level at least through the week since it was tested anything lower than that and something more top immediate Paws back pretty deeply over the course of the week we do have expiration we’ve got a couple of central banks and we’ve got do jec be on Thursday the following week we’ve got FMC so as we get into the through the week of course there’s probably going to be some more focus on the retail stuff housing sector data all week long and while that’s not actually directly or has substantially reflective of the consumer is not consumer goods it’s a look at buying power and it’s a take on on the the industries that supply that that’s all week long to be a lot of opportunities quarterly earnings are stranded inundate the market and this is certainly not as I said at the end of yesterday at the market wrap column after yesterday’s clothes which by the way I had the wrong link or not a good link to the recording if you need that it’s updated but as I said at the end this is certainly not hunkering down constructively ahead of earnings this is optimism so if the markets optimism is going to see it through then I immediately and not conserved buying pressure then maybe not immediately but somewhere in this area were looking at more so at top and then we’ll be looking more granular levels of gaps open gaps left outstanding closes left at Santee bike apps to try and time that or spot any patterns that give us Clues but those are the two likeliness pads so just real quickly then to go ahead and look at relative performances here’s yes and please just yesterday making their new hi just yesterday returning back to the averages are indexes do you get back in sync where one or the relationship was predictive of rotation beneath the surface when they get back in sync with each other that just tends to put a bow on it and having fully gift wrapped in the recently rotated Market the bigger correction across-the-board tends to appear that’s what we’re going to be looking for here can we get an nq’s get back to prioritize that’s not a big ass got a market that rallied 50 points yesterday Rally 200 points net over the prior two days another 50 points of the next couple days probably not a difficulty and when all three of made fresh eyes if we even get there then if we do get there immediately that’s going to be a big red flag alright any questions about any of that please let me know I want to do stocks tono questions we did go on for wine I must have covered everything it was some stocks I want to do wanted to come back to yeah last week I brought up arnoult a start that I’ve been that it just turned up in some of my stuff I run scans we talked about this last Saturday it had been calling and prior to that and I converted Head and Shoulders hit it been calling in to last week’s close and worked out really well but I just want to point out like the thesis my thesis on this is this is not entirely or exclusively a cannabis pharmaceutical but it is having reverse split one for 10 and taking the stock above $5 has made it a candidate for institutional buying French stations that have just a handful of other other stocks in the that have their own exposure some entirely and some not so much to the Cannabis sector you know GW Pharmaceutical which also looks like it’s bottoming that’s a little different story Cara Therapeutics which did really well for a long time had a nice break and then some bad really mixed results on a on a trial they were doing I don’t expect that to stay down Scott’s chemical grow not in Pharmaceutical multiples added broken eye the way do we have any clues when there’s not much reason to ever turned down to this prior low it’s not that the balance created a high a new high in which case would be no bullets reason to return to this Parlow so it is it is potentially bullish but it is spending a lot of time here without without recovering any reason for this huge volume Spike at the clothes yesterday and see a number of those if it’s inexplicable inexplicable but certainly interesting it did take volume up a little that’s pretty good on a Friday to expand volume to expand now looking at the daily so I wouldn’t give this I wouldn’t dismiss fresh low here you don’t maybe there’s room to test 1818 10 I just say right now that 1810 under clothes under 1810 definitely potential of pro bit but closing under 1810 says down says if this consolidation is breakout attempt all failed otherwise this is basically from risk-reward bases assuming it doesn’t gap down if it’s going to fail 1855 is the cheapest in the range without breaking lower to where we decide that the recovery wasn’t coming but I don’t have any other Clues than that Gil Yad interesting downtrending it’s it looks like a channel it’s not really it’s two parallel support lines that it’s been pretty much hugging and let’s see you know it’s pretty much still hugging it parallel anything parallel parallel like here’s a volume or here’s a sentiment surgeon surgeon sentiment and it Peaks at the parallel trend lines so it’s not actually break out again not a channel hear these two dads lines below are not a channel it’s not breaking out from a champ so but is a breaking and within the range and now we have a high in July that’s interpreting this low as a higher low so definitely giving it a better for the doubt it’s not that this will necessarily add dozens of points immediately I can still see this pattern getting 276 7620 dipping back down to what would then be lower prioritize and reversing up from there that’s the bullish scenario scenario scenario just basically gives back too much of this bounce and under 66 go back in there and recover and nice performer I’m not sure what I’ll be able to add to thishi regardless of the past there although we’re talking about the next PATH the path that we’re currently on breaking higher and like to see volume get a little bit get a little bit better on the break but regardless of the duration I should say once and and the resolution for that matter 169 should be test when 6890 that’s a minimum of jective based on all available patterns and I would maintain that expectationadd maintain an expectation at this point so long as 148 is that 148 85 or to hold a support images basically I want this consolidation right now I want that to be the one to break I’m in this is a very Timely timely point is it but yet still bullish looking for a minimum of 169 168 90 159 initially and then 169 might be some pushback at 1:59 that’s that’s the only thing that could derail the 169 Target is is a problem at 1:59 but I want to look at it at the time to see how it’s being done that’s being addressed negotiated Ulta done this was a huge drop call that well ok near-term done possibly and I think there’s any unfinished business aboveso we’ve got two options here to possibilities on Alta this is either the end of a pretty substantial corrective dip or it’s on its way to substantially lower levels this is a in here this is a basically a complex pattern whether it’s an ascending triangle inverted Head and Shoulders the point is that it develops away from the prior Trends extreme it doesn’t incorporate this leg at all that makes it complex and develops under that Pryor High off in a complex pattern will reach its objective and reverse the longer-term trend the minimum objective on the reversal without reversing the long-term trend is at least back down to the lower end of that complex pattern which is essentially 227-231 so this is my minimum objective if this were to extend any deeper and I say any deeper because there’s some possible there’s some potential that this is just a correction that’s done that this has been corrected I don’t know window earnings come out for instance that could trigger a blip up and then reaction down so so very critical spot in other words right in here the 244 – 52 doesn’t have to touch it don’t want to see it touched it even a bullish scenario pushing her I could touch it briefly but I suppose that one other one other point of guidance is I would take seriously any initial Bounce It splits assigned to 7225 to that so back above to 7225 I would take seriously the potential at this is at least bouncing back to 302 301 that’s going to be a bigger decision but if this minimum projective I’m still not going be able to give you a direct answer as to whether this is done which it sure looks like at this point we just missing all the all the conditions but if 227-231 were touched that would be another critical inflection point either recovering sharply or collapsing entirely but generally this pattern doesn’t end well Ctrl no nice little cup & handle here at the low and I don’t have any reason to be suspicious of their rally ultimately or eventually extending the fresh eyes higher highsstart running into resistance 2538 is one candidate for that resistance 2810 2980 but I would look for I’d look for 25 38th and the 28th 10:20 980 area to be tested so long as 2264 old to support before okay interesting on La Resistance up here at 2475 I would expect 2475 to move that under any conditions it’s a close above 2475 that’s going to tell us that that we’re heading substantially higher and buy some stantial ehire buy substantially higher I would think in terms of 2950 34 that’s a critical spot the resolution of that tested 2475 that’s going to be critical if it’s even touched which I’m expecting it to be touched no Assurance of that at all but I’m expecting it to be touched sooner rather than later okay what do I think would be a time for 6 months or much shorter concerning the drop slope which is the least likely scenarioget different measurements and see if that helps so the next opportunity is 1630 to 1772 that’s going to be the next opportunity for Aloe confirmation would be really at any time to recover back above 26 + -is that going to be the final hurdle to cover but that’ll be a big one can it is it don’t really see I don’t really see any accumulation in here and the volumes not matching the cycles of the ups and downs pullbacks higher highs internally so I can’t say that yet if I had to be long or short here I’d have to be short just based on volume based on volume of this consolidation there is a pretty good bar I was just back to the upper end of its range on this fresh High so that’s the one thing of that could develop next week if we could get another big up bar at least one on another fresh high that would change my near-term opinion a lot if we saw bigger volume on closes above 2422 that would change my near-term pinyin opinion a lot as far as this just being a corrective balance before extending down to 16 3272 1772 instead of already recovering 26 area Okay Bank of America and I don’t see any others went there Bank of America trying to recover fromis this credible for extending higher it isput under 2355 2345 says it’s not under 2355 2345 says we’ll just targets the Lowe’s and just by targeting the Lowe’s says the trend is reversing down can I get out to fry 2510 and it was theirs volume there it’s not uncredible that this could extend higher and so long as 2345 55 holds should be breaking are extending our right okay folks thanks so much for all of the questions stock ideas and just basically for participating if I can be of any help during the week just bring up a stock point it out and especially if it’s any one of these are we need to update the main chart room light is this link is on the thank you very much