Saturday Review’s recording (for 7/29/17) …Disorganized sellers.

Another weekend entered without a new trend extreme close. That’s not so unusual. But the week was again within proximity of producing a new high close, and did not. Last week avoided it by gapping down at the last minute. This week avoided it by plunging one day early — just minutes after having printed a new trend extreme. Perhaps the only thing supporting the rally now is that its weak-handed sponsorship remains stronger than weaker-handed sellers… We examine this and much more, including strategies and targets for the new week, in this weekend’s Saturday Review.

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NOTE: The last two stock analyses include examples of my 5-stage Running Correction reversal pattern…The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
AMD, Bitcoin, AMZN, GOOGL, NFLX, TSLA, VRX, NVDA, ARNA, FOLD, EXAS

okay we are live it is Saturday at San for the Saturday review July 29th and really interesting week interesting developments also as I’ve said that’s interesting what developments are haven’t been not nearly as session long rally end of the weekend rally off the mornings Lowe’s you know last week it was an afternoon dip that had to try recovering and did recover or firm from their sellers were shut down in the morning and both this week and last week last week going into the weekend there was an attempt to to drop below or retest the mornings Lowe’s and Brake lower that failed and the balance of the session of Bounce this week ended more optimistically which is interesting because this week on Thursday contained a pretty pessimistic stretch here and really was the one stretch that is the noon hour had already been entered it was about halfway through when price tumbled from new high is basically the highs in any case plunged is really the word collapsed relatively brief time into it was really an hour’s worth hour plus worth of selling and it was done it was done and it tried to do damage some of the damage at tried to do was a trend reversal well that’s just not going to happen you can write this down that a new session containing a new trend extreme isn’t also going to contain a reversal signal so if we know that a reversal signal is for instance in this case Too Close under an interim low here is the new trend High clothes on Thursday the 20th pull back Friday persistent Monday Valley resume or at least produces a new High clothes no other higher close so closing under that into amlot would qualify as a trend change or reversal will if we know that the same session already contains a trend extreme we know that the trend reversal is not going to succeed 99 point 999 I don’t have the exact figures in front of me but lot of a lot of instances of course the one instance the next sentence of course now that we’re addressing it is going to be the exception but the point is it would be an exception exception this business with or likelihoods we have to be aware that is going to fail and so that’s why I’m looking for the first Target of the bounce intraday basis Target was 6650 this was a reversal signal is 6150 had that broken lower and it was overlapped but only overlapped had that broken lower whatever verse resumed the brake lower would have given us that one exception or that exception it held we bounced 6150 held overnight Thursday night it even came coincidentally I don’t know out of the woodwork and response to North Korea launching a missile and their ongoing attempt to obliterate the Sea of Japan coincidentally there’s the drop touching it we acting up it did stop the mornings decline the mornings reaction down from 2469 stopped it short of the objective which was to test the bias down signal having held a test of the biceps and all the bias down signal is another three points lower it was a late signal so it’s going to be more vulnerable to failure not as reliable it still is unfinished business below but not a deal killer to a friend move which ended the week or not hire on the week but so where are we now two weeks in the making there’s one more ass here because the counter Trend sponsorship isn’t stronger handed so went sideways went sideways and into Thursday morning notice the collapse and if you can see them any charts notice the collapse Thursday so no longer the last minute like Friday’s opening gap down now making it more difficult or Friday all together which Friday was an inside day and traded exclusively and negative territory sure we’re covered the mornings dropped and recovered a lot but it didn’t attract new sponsorship new rally sponsorship this is not the stuff of new rally sponsorship again the Rally’s sponsorship week and it along the way up I’m try to be a voice of reason from time to time that there’s been pullbacks reactions down at have left unfinished business above or that have originated from setups that require retest at the high ultimate recovery theater Friday new trend extreme clothes or I’ll confirm break out over but are aside whatever it is there has always been some reason structurally for the rally to resume there isn’t now there wasn’t last week either there’s higher levels that I expect to be touched if we attack last week size 2484 2490 but there’s no requirement to probe any higher Thursday’s recovery made as far as we watch for optimism getting extended we look for a lot of contrarian signals you know it’s one thing to absorb a drop under prior Lowe’s that indicates that sellers are weak and it and they’re going to be there just not going to be able to reverse the trend here but the interim High it was so buyers are weak handed they’re either impatient or ineffectual biting off more than they can chew Tusa matter when are sellers going to exploit that and this isn’t exploiting that Friday morning slide for the overnight drop unless it produces a gap down or some sort of a break maintain through some sort of irrelevant window so back to that prior low that was tested it was recovered coming out of the bias environment the afternoon buy some varmint so that’s how irrelevant level is an established that we can’t rely on holding forever but we can infer from it being broken eventually that there’s something more substantial immediately yesterday in order to top extension so 46 which we’ve already known as the next lower attraction give that prior low where to break maintain a break and potentially lower could have been a lot lower had we gotten a duplicated Thursday’s drop on Friday I don’t know without knowing the clothes with that exactly would have been but we can identify a range would have been substantially lower if this is playing out in a normalized head and shoulders which doesn’t have to be tested by the way does it have to be a temporary reversal but often is if this is going to be more symmetrical and get back up to the 75 area and then roll over then we do still have that 46 objective nothing changes 46 being an objective out there on the next dip but it likely would extend to the 28 area that is how it would actually Tesla or prioritize fill a gap maybe even 20 for 10:50 but probably not more probably not be hey crash launcher The Head and Shoulders if it’s a head and shoulders can play at one other way as well and that is simply to extend higher not actually reverse down not reverse down yet in other words Head and Shoulders doesn’t always reverse down occasionally it extends they call it a reversal pattern because off and it is when it extends rather than reversing to a 60181 60181 60181 thats not measuring high to low or low that’s measuring left shoulder to write neckline that’s not a mainstream way of using these measurements that’s what I do by the same token those same data points datum points sure which is right anyway taking the left shoulder and right neckline and extending higher rather than a 60181 60181 typically it’s the 100 or 200 and either one of them with 2484 and then 2490 being the next tire objectives if the pattern were to break higher next if Friday’s upward it’s not really a provis Fridays inside day where to break lower instead of trying to break lower break higher first instead of trying to break lower 2484 and 2490 would be the next time jectors 2493 comes into that mix just as a noise and a higher than that rally were to really resume not just retest prioritize we’ve already discussed 2425 1450 is the next subject of above 2490 that clearly coverage 25 1075 2511 some multiple patterns a multiple measurements that have the same likely objectives in case the right of where the resume discuss the upside really only in terms of 2484 and maybe 2490 because how I began the presentation there is no unfinished business anyway is if sellers don’t already retake control because we’re seeing signs that the rally is weak and its sponsorship and it’s not glaring maybe it look that way Thursday momentarily it’s not glaring at this time otherwise because sellers are weaker handed sponsorship there’s three parties and any transaction there’s the buyer there’s the seller and there’s the sideline the sideline is the strongest hands right now when they come in the side the which they come in on is going to win there’s not a small contingent potential Market participants on the sideline that can come in and have really no bearing and there’s not a contingent on the sideline that is not very likely to come in on one side or the other side but because buyers have been losing strength and yet price as eat Tire and aching higher and starting to get violent reactions consecutive eking hires will turn the new high violent reaction gap down new Hive violent reaction Gap Town now a new high violent reaction that overlaps the prior instance just not making any Headway here so presumably the sideline contingent when it becomes sponsorship is not going to be enthused at buying this Ranger they would have we have seen it Friday so one more observation that look at the three indexes two indexes and an average ESR control group last Thursday at high this Thursday at High or in the morning and a break back under a pro but temporarily under their interim low how about the down which is the preferred destination for big money that has to be in the market but can’t be in Cora’s because of a negative perception of the market is wanting to be in the most liquid most widely followed least surprising the Dow 30 average that’s just hitting higher and higher highs and by the way it’s reaction down on its reversal down on Thursday which did come from a new high actually came from gapping up to new High and thanks that extra room didn’t even proba prior low that had to be recovered so we’re seeing like the safety basically and the speculative the speculative broke under its prior low the same Friday Monday prior low but at least Friday and Qs out performed on Monday and that was rewarded but not to substantially their prior low was held so if we do at this is why even though the reversal down in es reversing down in es as to pass one is to gap down Monday Lowe’s by Richard and lows 63 area or slide and break under irrelevant low that’s going to be a little less predictive that 63 area that a fresh load through a Roman timing window intraday maintain its break through an intraday window because of nq’s not necessarily the Gap up requiring a retest and Qs don’t have that requirement so this Gap up doesn’t it just because it’s above all prior highest doesn’t necessarily need to be filled From Below although it would be usual if we saw that in any commodity or else we would absolutely be looking for that retest and most stocks or most of the time of stocks individual equities because nq’s also managed to recover from a test of their interim low or at least hold it not initially recover but avoid the brake because of that I would expect that if this is going to extend down this Thursday’s reversal is going to extend down Monday I would expect that to begin aggressively literally gapping down so the less address of the start on Monday if they’re selling the less likely it even extends the likelier that at least. Yes comes back and retest it’s high or at the very least continue continue on with a more symmetrical head and shoulders so gets back to 75 unless were gabbing down on Monday I’d look higher initially but we’re not seeing signs for anything that should give us any greater comfort in the longer term ding up alright any questions please go ahead and post them to look at let’s do that now otherwisemaximum pull back right here to get that done 1365 so 1365 test should resume the rally minimum objective to fill the opening Gap that to 1513 probe its intraday high at expect naturally but tugging 1635 1755 it’s pretty timely on one-on-one basis and of course that’s Thursday during the big plunge so just performing with the market would like to see no recovery by now but if and also not a lot of well the volume into the consolidation confirms it to consolidation not a reversal attempt of any sort so it’s free timely in that you know pretty quickly if it’s wrong if it’s wrong to be long you’ll know pretty quickly because this is pretty much to pull back when it and there’s prior to Lowe’s in here that can be tested first it wouldn’t be surprising of intraday there were tests of 1740 45 $0.50 cheaper but I wouldn’t give it much if any more than that positive clothes no matter what the intraday drop or I would look at a positive clothes as being bullish to resume that rally okay post any stocks you have I’ll do two from everyone rotating around and coming back around until we’re all through Amazon Google I am studying I mean I’ve been monitoring and charting Bitcoin for a while I’m very confident that it is very responsive to very responsive to the market or two it’s patterns that is the does generate patterns and does respond the less sophisticated the market actually it can really be fun but other people just don’t realize that the participants are so vulnerable to their own sentiments and it’s a long as you know what you’re looking at it’s there there’s try to stay up-to-date with Bitcoin with this with this fork in the road that it’s facing and how it is accounted for how to block chains are accounted for and that’s created a lot of Havoc I’m generally bullish Bitcoin I don’t see this as a top or toppy more consolidation but right now that I’m going to be going into Bitcoin in this venue but it is in a pretty big consolidation right now and trying to break our Goldman has some stuff out on it that I think it’s generally right it’s more from an Elliott perspective the patterns okay Amazon Amazon announcement when the rest of the had so that opening printers what 6973 1060 973-210-6973 $60 higher wants to be retested and so long as lower prior High’s holds preferably just once that’s the next objective before I can finish Now volume never really got attractive on the rally out of here the rally out of here contraction in volume that channel that corrective Channel it improved a little but not into the trending so if that high is were tested I’d expected to be bearish had expected to resolve bearishly not at the same slope or gradually maybe even probe fresh Eyes First but still resolved down alphabet Google Barons as an article today by the way in this week’s issue that just came out that I think it’s the StreetWise column that is calling for alphabet Amazon to slow down pull back where unlikely so there’s room though for it too kind of fall apart or appear to fall apart wow really only backing and filling testing lower prioritize down into the 159 160 area I really don’t have any unfinished business of here it’s a good area for such a reaction down I really look for some sort of a dip into this area anticipate recovery or at least recovery to retest the highest in order for this actually get barish this pattern here has to prove to ever solved wrongly basically can have to reject this whole rally and that doesn’t require closing under the entire day to pattern I think 145 would suffice actually 151 – 145 Tesla running out of running out of distractions I would think now they’ve got their mass produced car coming online and pre-order what what does 61 a projection of that back above 350 8:50 359 I’d start assuming that that rally has resumed otherwise there’s potential to extend this down to basically under Point swing 262 there’s no new development that would have it’s not uncommon to see a break out from here I break out for this kind of pattern a breakout from call it a channels and really Channel bit call the channel if you want to put a break out the gaps up Extenze higher but often these will be more patient come back test lower price test to break out point the Gap come back into the pattern and then resume the rally and never have to deal with this again that’s not the case with this pattern at some point that needs to be filled now clearly there’s some kind of a paradigm shift here don’t know the story specifically at that time what was going on and it is held its add 10 for one split that took this from being what a dollar $30 40 to 13 14 and a lot of Institutions from a fiduciary with a fiduciary capacity being prevented from unable to and other mutual funds just by prospectus be prohibited from investing in stocks that are training under $5 now they may own stocks they bought over $5 and they’re not forced to liquidate them I would be silly wish they were forced to be a great trade but anyway now that it’s here there’s you can count on one hand the number of cannabis plays that or that are that are institutional qualified so I am looking for this really be a big plate in that sector the longer it takes for others to come online and it will that are institutional qualified that this will start commanding a higher PE on that segment anyway anyway several pullback potentials one already tested 22 or 2365 I can’t say that is the end of it next one lower it is 21:30 2125 and if the market we’re falling apart and took this down with it we can see the entire day this spiked up for traced back to 1885 I’d still be interested in it so I can’t say that this is necessarily the end of the pullback what would suggest it is is the recover back about 2610 so closing back about 2610 at this point closing above 2610 would be credible for resuming the rally not just a retest the high but literally resume the rally we were looking at 40 on this one pattern alone if no other pattern where to develop otherwise lower potential Channel nectarine aggressively into Stage 2 running correction that resolves aggressively stage 3 now we’re in stage 4 and that is the plateau now Stage 5 of this pattern this is a proprietary pattern of mind you want to find it elsewhere stage five does one of two or three things thing number one that it can do is just resolve up if Stage 5 resolves up 5 a his Stage 5 resolves up then that’s it we’re going to take this at this point will take this leg and double it basically so what was a rally from 8 to 14 six points becomes 20 is sent to it that’s 585 B is a reversal this is much more common by the way reversal to the lower quadrant of this running correction which just eyeballing it it looks like comes in around 9 65975 this is 5D and then it recovers and resume is the rally to the correction that’s actually 5 be one because there is a five V2 I said two or three possible resolutions 5D is down but recovers or returns to the origin of that rally and often as reverse the trend all together so the big risk here is avoided if we can just get a new high class get out of this now that we started playing close above the plateau on expanding volume again and we’ll look for another six points roughly I’ll do the exact math at the time 5A is a winner 5B you know if you want to get long for 5 and anticipation of 5/8 happening okay but be prepared to add on a pull back to 5B I wouldn’t just by weakness if waiting to buy weakness I looked at by weakness down here at around 965 because often that will then resume the rally but beware if owning it here if only it here try to get out of it here because it’s going at least to hear if not to hear I’m finally one more that was emailed it again if you have any other stock requests let me know any of these patterns look familiar you want to see if it’s going on in one of the following I’m happy to take a look at it exact sciences and controversial stock and just kept taking a higher and higher every time it had some sort of negative report it was a really hated stock they have a test that has been winning over insurance companies that’s been the primary story here and whenever you see a negative story that might have an effect on price the price eff ect would be temporary I was really back here as it’s rising Legends for me and again coiling so there’s a prior High correction correction of this up leg you can see the math is a 61 from the low last load to that high or trace a common 1.60 1.8% if I go from close to close coil up here just restrained optimism don’t like a running correction but internally that was literally exploding lower quadrant of that running correction 5D one because five V2 never materializes and instead recovers again is a proprietary pattern nobody else follows us I don’t think recovers back to the high what was this leg twenty-four to thirty-six 12 points also 50% so as I say we’re looking at about at about 12 points Russell looking at about 50% and there’s also a function to hear of this pull-back so there’s some Exacta to to it but generally 12 points 48 Target 50% 49 pattern and it’s correction plenty of upside still coming