Saturday Review’s recording (for 7/8/17) …The end is near.
It’s possible to extend Friday’s rally into a complete recovery of the 3-week old decline. Not easy, but possible. Meanwhile, the likelier scenario would resume the decline to its next set of targets, where a bottom would be more credible than any of the decline’s price action so far. We discuss details in this week’s Saturday Review…
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
WFC, RAD, ARNA, AMD, VRX, AVGO, VZ, NFLX, FB, AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, TSLA, GOOGL
so as of Monday we will be able to label this as a 3 week-long decline it’s been through a lot of news lot of stuff thrown at it it’s certainly done its damage let’s even step back that’s a 9 Minute chart looks like back the 18 minute get a little bit bigger View recall that we’d been in a rally from another big pull back about the same length time from the beginning of March three weeks in this one ended not hear it handed in a higher low in April and that took off that took off into may very brief down in mid-may that recovered again into three weeks ago and it was an opportunity for similar structure and maybe there’s still that opportunity that’s what we’re going to discuss today similar structure and that just as we just looked at that low in April we had and it had a higher low someone similar to this off of its pull back that’s marches pull back that is March’s pull back into April’s higher low If This Were an analog to that this would be the low as of Thursday and we’d already be Off to the Races as of Friday and then I’m going it may be just a retest three-week-old High the three week old hi don’t forget has unfinished business above the three week old high has has a biased Target from that afternoon very little effort went into it so very little effort that is or was left out standing due to be rewarded it’s just not a deciding factor to interpreting the market any more so than yesterday afternoon yesterday afternoon as well left outstanding a bias up Target that we are totally dismissing that is yesterday afternoon’s by us up 2423 I mean that’s the calculation and it triggered by one tip it avoided I’m voting the grace period by one Tech and in any case it maintained its recovery by one tick and triggered and didn’t extend any higher after that noise fluctuation but no actual trending does it mean to Market can’t continue around but we’re not going to leave that unfinished business above in the way of the client if it wants to get going and maybe in the way of just completing the pool back if that wasn’t it Thursday let’s go back to that analog again back in back in March is low and April’s high or low lot more time in between the two so better opportunity now March as low as it is left them finish business below and gap down under all private Lowe’s Vevo what the extra low tire low was actually on a Monday Thursdays aren’t really good days for bottoms for Trend extremes anyway so as of this stage of the pattern which by the way to a moment ago at the beginning done a lot of damage to the trend it’s just done damage toBay mid Maze reaction down wasn’t substantial it was but it was very brief it didn’t have a lot of sponsorship and so it doesn’t interrupt the uptrend this is all part of the same up leg and so when that leg extended or I should say when the mid may drop developed didn’t really do a lot of damage tested lower prioritize quickly recovered resume the rally the current pull back has done damage to Prior Lowe’s so for instance this is the prior range as of this point in time this was the all time high it’s been bettered but as of that point in time that being the all-time high these were the reactions this is where they all time high was defended to that defense there’s just usually no reason for the trend in this case the rally to trace back to level that has already been defended and productive produced of new high very little reason I typically that’s not bullish to return to that successfully defended level after it’s as I say successfully defended it produced a fresh High let alone I mean at that can be defended again that can be defend it again usually buy a final leg but in case there are two cases it can be defend it or not it’s not being defended well this time because it has been broken once this isn’t a fresh low but it’s broken again so we’ve got these lower prioritizing here having been tested that was a successful test produced a fresh eye and here it’s been called on again we don’t really have any lower prioritize that are being tested now there’s barely a blip back here that was that a decline stopped optimistically short of touching this is really very great area for the market it just doesn’t have support and without support if you think of jumping on the bed for instance and the bed springs spring back and spring back and spring back eventually get enough jumps on their the bed springs break and that’s the mattress maybe there’s a box spring below more lower prioritize go more lower prioritize and that becomes the next opportunity to bounce and that’s basically where we’re at not necessarily in a big Market turn that’s not necessary it’s possible that is a path that is a possible consequence to continue a chipping away at support the one reason why we’re still not able to anticipate Lee expect that to be the outcome the one big reason is I say is because this prior low that was successfully defended is not giving way easily lot of energy is being expended just to chip away at it support lot of energy that will be sorely missed if and or when there’s a fresh low I don’t mean to imply there’s a trend line here but let’s just point that out and this is when we come intoplay have to resolve aggressively to the upside as I’ve just drawn it but it would be the likeliest resolution if we were headed higher or if if we’re headed back to a retest of the high of any sort piercing it or probing it or trending above it doesn’t have to develop entirely along the way this can be more longer long and drawn-out downstep it cetera but the turn should be pretty aggressive it doesn’t have to be that way but it is so much likelier to be to develop this way in a bullish scenario a bullish scenario that is where a fresh low find support Vine Cellars being expended and find support that hasn’t yet been tested tested to produce a recovery this is so much likelier the path higher of quick, turn that if the low if 2399 2393 is being tested and not abruptly being rejected if it’s being tested and that test is becoming drawn-out that test is taking its time to recover not the not the bottom like this like this then that’ll be suspicious that will make us suspect and completelyclosing basis under the entirety of the interim low which has been proved only that creates Trend change this doesn’t qualify on Thursday because it’s contained within a prior intraday low that’s a proxy now for that is last Thursday’s low being a probe intraday of the prior of the interim low becomes a proxy for that low need to close under that indicated Trend change the point being that the near-term trend change when I left another high under the low if we just track it today we’re at risk here for for a trend change as I do find it for the the rally at self being the difference between a correction and a trend change so here is a new high just going off in today’s pull back low higher high new pool vac low lower high I can’t really identify the lower high until I know that there is a lower low if a lower low Prince without any new high that is at least touching the pivotal High so let’s say this leg gets there will have to I’m sorry love to lower lows and one lower high one more lower high that resolves down that kills the entire rally the months-long rally that is a big train change and that’s the risk that’s the risk that comes into play if 2399 2393 isn’t holding a support isn’t launching that next up leg or at least a retest of the high and instead is breaking lower to satisfy this Gap that wasn’t tested to satisfy this open from the March pull back that was avoided that wasn’t touched at that point we’ve we’ve changed the trend in something more substantial that is if we want to go back to the the election low so there’s the overnight low to get there we have to get through marches low that’s a long way down in a long time lot of stuff in here that hasn’t been tested that would need to be broken as well just on a percentage basis there’s a 6181 88th lot of stuff that would happen in between so as far as the upside and Thursdays again time frame between the twomaintaining it through the clothes the downside momentum hasn’t been lost the rubber band is simply been stretched to snap back down let’s say that’s wrong or actually in my world there’s no wrong let’s say that something develops and brings brings a stronger handed sponsorship of buying this is not an accumulative pattern but what is it that must happen in must happen at a quickly or at all to avoid in the avoidance of fresh Lowe’s to reverse the trend up already and since Friday didn’t Gap up enough and so it wasn’t going to close high enough to reverse the trend something else has to happen and that is to take out at least a couple of prioritize there’s nothing so substantial and buying pressure able to turn the trend back up unless it starts the day unless the cash session is greeted and maintained of course by proxy from a higher high by proxy means every time every window every day that misses an opportunity to recover one level the next opportunity has to recover too so if gapping up Friday above Thursday’s High’s would have sufficed then Monday in order to reverse the trend up already would have to Gap up above the last to prioritize the last two sessions highs literally above Monday’s half-day 24 36 25 by 25 30 not impossible but anything shower viewing as stretching the rubber band so can snap back down there’s Monday we can get it in thereevolve in stocks and why not because relative values aren’t very attractive elsewhere it’s going someplace where it’s where it’s still able to participate and at least be a little bit more insured if not of the earnings reliability but the liquidity capitalization and that’s the Dow so nq’s out down in nothing has changed in that regard question question I need to know that needs to be returning back up so Friday didn’t Gabba Gabba or at least this one Wednesday morningif it is it just shower lead to the first line of resistance the other thing we’d be suspicious of which isn’t necessarily applicable to Monday but in the eventual if there is an eventual retest of the prior Lowe’s the last two Thursdays Lowe’s and it’s not being rejected abruptly and we’re talking 2399 2393 then we’d be suspicious that it’s going to be rejected at all the likely a resolution here with or without a shallow or as moderate strength at the open the likelier scenario is to resolve down you can never dismiss the potential for gapping up but even gapping up so long as it’s within the confines still likely to resolve down whether or not gapping down the decline is likely to resume what I did point out as well as the the distinction were getting some distinct legs intraday getting some distinct sponsorship changes so in a look at Monday it was a holiday short a time to introduce multiple sponsorships this is just one sponsorship from the mornings Gap up but then reverse down that’s a continuation of on Wednesday above Thursday morningthere’s one this is more fun it’s holding up here yeah I mean it’s interesting I’m not sure how to discern that behavior so much but if you can get one. That consistently does one thing that’s valuable information are any other questions please go and post them me while let’s put stocks up here and start looking at any charts questions actually based on trending days within the month that happens to be Thru the 19th okay I’ve traded it so basically a Wednesday to Wednesday or that number day of the month interesting Willits be on top of that they were of it that way that would help to get to that 2399 or 2393 in the interim really get rid of a lot of ballast alright Wells Fargo so popular multipleokay so I see where was Justin’s comes from it’s basically this 5656 50 I wouldn’t want to see that Gap filled the strength here basically comes from ignoring that Gap couple of closes consecutive close is above 5656 50 should indicate that the rally has resumed and preferably not just closing 5625 for instance in this Ranger actually take out 5656 50 take it out on sharply expanding volume that’s where the next up leg comes from and preferably stay away from filling this Gap that’s on Wells Fargo there’s just no bullets reason for it at this stage Rite Aid what is recovery pads that would have been right here closing about 45 totally ignored I’m going Target Matt at 3:30 and then some it was a take under didn’t agree to basically it take under or at least they I’m at that’s only with the day I know they had to get rid of a lot of property properties so question here the pattern there’s a gap outstanding back to the pre-announcement clothes that have to be filled the answer is no because it was formed by opening within the so once this gets into the or merger there’s all sorts going on that is basically volumeplay this could get to 142 just as noise and see this againI want to take a look at it again when 85-86 190 but otherwise it’s on his way that’s I mean it’s a downtrend it’s an ongoing downtrend its aggressive there’s no accumulation in here so without any accumulation there’s no upside Target if it were to return to 6 and the answer is nothing in here that says it’s going to return to 6 if it needed to get to 6 at on this downtrend it’s already done it with this break the came back to the proxy for that consolidation in this down training resistance I would track as far as a bounces potential about meeting for the purpose of being just a bounce I would track this ongoing downtrend downtrending resistancewherever that intersects that’s going to be the proxy for this same resistance right now it comes in at what 567 couple months if it’s still out there comes in at 5:43 so probably not not anytime soon alright any others his what I’ve noticed interesting called Arena pharmaceutical Arna this was actually never and $11 stock 1155 whatever that is there was a reverse one for 10 split this was a dollar fifty five it’s a pretty interesting pattern it’s at the Cannabis sector where there’s one or two other other pharmaceutical medicinal Pharmaceutical issues GWPH which is an ad or or it’s a british-based company Kara which didn’t have a good resolution too bad news in that here comes This that institutions now can cuz I don’t like to be in socks that are under $5 or at least they don’t get to be in a lot of cases if they want exposure to that sector here is a opportunity looks like volume to very well this is the kind of stock kind of story actually that can send them out of the woodwork andnow that is about 12:55 it’s 1275 1275 keeps the upside momentum alive so if there were an intraday drop for some reason broader Market reaction to something 1275 or tested and held through the clothes that would be bullish but there’s no requirement to test 1275 just that if it were tested it might be an opportunity to get long has it even though it’sjust this whole area that’s pretty critical support it just piercing into it and reacting up from it he and doesn’t the silly but can suggest that the pullbacks done or that new sponsorship was attracted sufficient to resume the rally can not necessarily and I’m not even not even a real is that even Insurance here because look at volume it really didn’t seem to notice that that such an important level was being tested and rejected so it’s possibly not been rejected and therefore at the lower end of that range the to basically to 22 lower end of that range little likelier to be were tested and a better hold and a better reject the dip on in Crete expanding volume otherwise it’s breaking lower and the Rally’s done such a pretty critical spot here I’m never comfortable with any action it’s going on above the 261 8 we’ve got a couple patterns in here projecting the 261 8th and the to 3231 area to 3050 area and you can see to 3050 s been influential God complexity of its fulfilled its own internal accumulative stuff so hesitant to be a buyer hesitant to be a buyer into strength elected to buy a buyer into strength and I hesitate buying weakness or at least have a pretty strong stop somewhere not too far below 222 wanting to see a test of 220 to recover backup up at least 2:26 on big volume okay Verizon and has been tracking pretty interesting ly it never got out I made it we weren’t looking to buy weakness here or be hopeful about the potential that it’s pulled back or reversal has ended because the nearest Buy Signal was substantially further away I could lower that I’m not going to rush to lower that right now but if I were to lower this I would lower it to say 4720 but otherwise we’ve now completed a corrective bounce and broken lower the volume isn’t doing anything substantial volume isn’t doing anything substantial so it’s possible for this break to come back and correct but again 4720 is the nearest bicycle that I I’d be curious about otherwise kind of an air pocket here down to 3938 90 okay any otherlook for me the relative performance is going to be the biggest guide so Netflix end of the week pretty nicely but that’s after probing of fresh low on Thursday Google already performing already coming back but no prior Heisman taken out here let me these these are all still in down trends Facebook could be on the verge of a bigger recovery but it better be exploited quickly Amazon of course as we pointed out a few weeks ago on the Whole Foods news it did get back to the high but nothing was done with it nothing terribly bullish about that pattern Apple down in the dumps it’s already fulfilled a pretty significant upside of ejected Microsoft not much difference interested of course Tesla andthe next opportunity to get bullish on this is above 977 we don’t really know how far this even if we knew it 100% degree of certainty that 977 we’re going to be recovered and we’re going to launch another up leg to new highs and extend and also it’s a good stuff like that we still wouldn’t have any reason to be confident that a deeper pulled back weren’t going to develop in the interim deeper pull back that would basically Target 847 or have potential to 8:47 so there’s that kind of room right now I’m down to 8:47 tournament in here let’s just call at 840-7860not so sure that 860 won’t be tested anyway alright but as far as Google at overall goes there’s nothing that’s required to Trend any higher ever no unfinished business above other than being a ongoing series of higher highs and higher lows there is nothing else standing above alright any others any of those stocks go and post them that is it