Saturday Review’s recording (for 8/19/17) …Catching on quickly.
Monday’s total solar eclipse probably won’t be the end of the world. That isn’t likely until next weekend’s meeting in Jackson Hole of the world’s Central Bankers and economic geniuses. They’ve rid us of the normal pains associated with economic cycles, price discovery, and bidless debt markets. Much more difficult will be their walking it all back. Or, explaining how they’ll accomplish that. Or, getting the rest of us to believe it… all without driving away equity buyers.
Jackson Hole resorts need not register their first guests before the symposium already impacts markets. Rumors and trial balloons may influence price action, but not necessarily bullishly. Which these past two weeks seem to be telling us. D.C. drama is uncomfortable to watch and global terrorism is sad and scary. Each can be a catalyst for market moves. But trends are influenced by economic anticipation. And as I describe in this week’s Saturday Review, that anticipation is quickly turning sour — and likely has more to come.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
EXAS, FB, NFLX, BZUN, BIDU, SUPN, VRX, ADBE
good morning and welcome hit is Saturday it’s time for the Saturday review please just go ahead and post whatever you have if you have a question as I’m saying it saying something or comment I will get to the comment when I can and if there’s anything that you think I’m leaving out mentioned that but I’m missing one thing here sorry to seconds okay we are good to go so it’s Saturday long week really interesting week as promised as promised because of how the prior week ended and I can promise again that this is not done this is a very interesting time lot of stuff that’s going to be determined here I can’t say that it will have run its course by the end of this week we might get to a point where some stability can develop which isn’t necessarily what we want from a trading perspective but this time and it is a top has been a long time in the making and it isn’t necessarily done when there is still an opportunity let’s just refresh what we were talking about 1 week ago what are week ago we were looking at just to this point right here none of this and developed and there were two or three options for the market option one was to take the normal route and I say normal because normalized as in this is what the market what the rally I should say has been accustomed to doing in a situation like this with the near-term support or outstanding objective with so much selling pressure having been expended such a short time frame so here’s a gap could have fill that Gap that was as 24 25 25 Gap likely to be retested down to 2421 Embassy for 21 that was one option the normalized option for an ongoing rally come down fill that Gap test that support lot of lot of stuff here to work through and however much time would be spent there then work back to toward the highs maybe to new heights that was the normal eyes and that was off the table of mediately when the open gapped up also off the table immediately when the open door when the open didn’t plunge was the potential for plunging in this pattern that would not have been unusual since the since the entirety of this pull-back had been contained within that Gap up range if the market intended to work three or to avoid having to work through this chunk of stuff there was a very real possibility that Monday was going to gap down under it under the entirety of it say 2423 something bounce back end of the range and then recovered that was a very definite possibility there a definite possibility it’s a possibility as well this week we’ll come back to that of course I was off the table what was left on the table at Monday’s open was this Gap to return to one of two levels one of two which basically came in at 2463 that was the singular numerical representation of the higher priorities and I’ve had didn’t and things and it certainly tried to have it was influential if that didn’t end it then fill this Gap couple of calculable levels in here basically give us a range 2471 7350 and altimate Lee actually not just ultimately but eventually twice both this is with Globex Tuesday night 24 7325 was hit and that gave us another couple scenarios that we were able to anticipate 7350 being tested more thoroughly actually up to 74 intraday let’s go back without the Globex that was it that’s a correction and that is done and the market couldn’t wait could hardly wait to resume its decline so we get some information here here the prior week last week we are talking about this pivot reversal on Tuesday that is in an uptrend gapping down reversing intraday to a new trend extreme and then closing under the Gap but I gave us the clearest signal that we can get look at that follow through it wasn’t it was overnight immediate but not entered a immediately resuming on Thursday not intraday actually some lower lows here overnight that weren’t tested until this week what do we know about this leg versus that first leg this is not a slow retracement back down to the prior notice was not some big sudden stumble that Finds Its bottom Fishers and knife catchers to produce a balance and then kind of gradually comes back and decide yeah that is going to be alone in here we go this is not that again another normal pattern that we would see in an ongoing rally this was for all of its substantial or degree of pull back of drop in whatever. Of time it really didn’t develop so easily even the first session that got kicked it off was included a new hot the next session that continued it really spent the intraday trending up yeah Thursday reminded us where we were but Friday didn’t even test the overnight lows and just raining sideways that’s not this current week the prior week this week despite the obvious optimism the rejection of all that which was enhanced by these characteristics that I just described really got things back into the sell-off mode a much deeper much prefer just as substantial this is not just a retest of the prior love so let’s back off back out one well if you greater degrees this is there any one minute chart we have it yet reverse the trend down so there’s a lot of selling pressure being expended as I just described still Hope Springs Eternal even in the steepness and extent the degree of this drop the prior week still fought so finding its pockets of support all the way into Monday Tuesday Wednesday Wednesday morning and then coming to a realization it’s still has It reversed under a prior low we have an ongoing series of higher highs Wireless here’s a fresh low member that Trend change signal that was actually invalidated under 2459 for two consecutive sessions was recovered back above 24 skip session to equate to a trend reversal it just invalidated the degree of confidence we could have didn’t matter the that’s why the market had to come back aggressively to compensate for that detour but that’s one Trend change higher highs Harlow’s one of the elements of a trend change we need two of those so there is a lower high now we need a lower low got that we don’t know that that lower low is actually going to stand until we have a lower high which means we need another lover low we don’t know that we have a lower high coming if there’s any kind of Bounce at all until either we break under a prior low or bounce and break under this load it sure is shaping up to be and it’s the best opportunity or attempt there’s been at a trend change but the point is we can’t take off the table we can’t yet take off the table the potential for One More Bounce so in trying to narrow down the templates that are available to Monday to the week going forward there is potential for a balance we’re not assured of sliding through Monday at any point let alone gapping down which is one of the templates is it was it last week’s open if we’re not bouncing or at least firm and Firming Monday then Sunday night I should say that it is possible that the world just comes to a decision they don’t want to be the last one out or or any later in line than they already are and they drive a Gap Town which is not as big of a deal is it would have been last week last week the first week down off the high to immediately in the next week Gap under a big congestion like this now there’s been a correction now we’re closer and proximity and have actually chipped away at part of that truck sure not as big a deal the gap down under the entirety of it which essentially is 24 1224 1175 is the lower representation of this range 2412 the Earth 1996 and there’s no reason just being just to be prepared there is no reason why we can’t have a substantial falling out intraday falling out and two consecutive by the way substantial down days as a massive cleansing to the ongoing as I’m sure everybody knows this is one of the longest streak 7 Market rally without say a 1% intraday move counter-trend move to number of different things that I always equate to from these somehow it always comes back to equating to my bar tab that builds up Suddenly It’s a pretty big deal Day of Reckoning so where does that leave us for Sunday Sunday night in the Monday morning be very aware that when we come out of the weekend overnight action is indicating a gap down it should be taken seriously there’s no unfinished business below last week had last week had the overnight low Thursday night’s overnight low that had complexity to it to create a little bit friend extreme we were in a trend change signal that it was invalidated in the next couple days doesn’t affect that they required to retest retest is neutralized and not rejected there’s been a corrective bounce and it has been rejected so if Sunday night is telling us that the gap down it’s just specially significant Gap Town is indicated for Monday we should take it seriously Mondays are associated with crashes I don’t like using that word and I in fact when we seen where we’ve seen those types of sessions develop on Mondays they tend to actually ended a fairly well or at least better for buyers bottom Fishers at least for the day so I don’t think we can take direct and Allergy and look for a session long breaks not without some sort of a not without ending the bounce on Monday and and the headlines are going to change the course of the market or not going to come from the headlines that have driven the course of the market the drama that’s going on in Washington DC with the market was being moved by news of what Mario draghi of the ECB might say more than two weeks away so during this week as news comes or rumors or floated trial balloons perhaps of what might be said on Friday or over the weekend next weekend that would have an opportunity to move the market in the opposite direction I don’t know what it can do because I mean there is there’s two to some degree it not a great degree the possibility of not likelihood that while the drama and the terrorism maybe maybe simultaneous recurring simultaneous to prices dropping and maybe a catalyst as well there a catalyst in the same way that a pin pricking and overly inflated balloon is responsible for it exploding well it got overly inflated to begin with and so the Jackson Hole headlines or rumors or trial balloons maybe completing a story arc that already is involved already underlining lender underlying the market drop that as we get closer to that event or as we at least come out of some big Central Bank meetings that the market is uncomfortable with what can be offered to support it going forward we are seeing signs of insight apron so there’s a lot to be aware of as we end come out of the weekend but if we’re not indicated then the decline likely Extenze and if you’re not indicated flat it’s probably because we’re gapping down substantially this is not the kind of down to resume in clandestine ways to make it very obvious at a certain point and then let’s go back one more time to what I was describing along that point it didn’t make itself obvious here remember despite that gap down despite that big rally despite its big rejection to close under the gap down the clothes again in that 24/7 the next day that gap down and spend the entire session the negative territory increasingly obvious that this is going to be all at once updates after 1:30 Eastern typically right so is a bounce Monday still the likeliest or 50 50 sew in a normal in a normal low back or a normal correction normalized for the rally that we been in his on his early that a balance would be likely at 4 saying gapping up if we’re saying strong open and for saying strong morning or even upward bias morning none of that is necessary for a bottom a bottom could form from retesting Friday’s low in fact as we describe yesterday Friday is low because it developed and let me get to the overnight from last Thursday against the last Thursday approved under Thursday night program to Thursdays Lowe’s intraday Lowe’s and Thursdays intraday Lowe’s were substantial that was a substantial drop last last week the prior week I should say that extended down overnight but didn’t repeat Friday the market still not believing what was going on the entirety of yesterday morning developed in this is after Thursday night this week we tested that was Lowe’s the entirety of Friday morning didn’t just come in and and have some obligatory fresh low which by the way would be the normalized way that this rally this ongoing rally has been finishing off it’s it’s Corrections unnormalized pull back that was about to bottom and resume the rally would have come in on this you know neutralizing the attraction below and Friday morning just give those late to the late to the party sellers the retail players give them a little taste and then trap them and start the recovery into the weekend and it looks like in the market did that but not when we back off and look at timing because here’s that entire day of that would otherwise would have been some obligatory fresh low that the retail minded professional at the retail Market have because they’re suddenly waking up and seeing that this is no longer around and not realizing it’s the end of a pullback this would have recovered coming out of the bias apartment it didn’t this is the bias environment exit at 11:30 the entirety of the bias environment was spent under prior alone he’s our overnight was it was spent under all prior intraday loves this is an anchor or an albatross or dead weight or a stake in the ground and it did exactly what it was supposed to do yesterday and that is prevent to Rally from extending can prevent Corrections Corrections or normal if the break eggs to make an omelet you have to back and filled to decline so if this anchor is going to prevent this rally from extending and force it basically Doom it to failure has it done that not yet men’s retraced the rally but it hasn’t suffered any consequences yes I have news to Klein and hasn’t paid any price that open or the morning hadn’t already paid because of the timing of this in the morning having extended for so long remain under pressure for so long that’s an anchor we expected to be proud so good Monday morning also Pro but fresh low and recover that’s when we will know that this is extending or not in the near term if like I just described for yesterday it’s certainly possible on a Monday if we get some obligatory fresh low for the retail crab to feel good that they’ve gotten short or gotten out actually but the bias environment is exited back Above This anchor will start looking higher will start looking up for a couple 3 days hope will Spring Eternal Etc that will tell us that the bounce on Monday as possible or more likely Tuesday Westside fifty-fifty odds to that but if I see if we see that pattern then we can assign even greater odds to the potential for a bounce but no I don’t see the market doing that if it’s coming to quicker and quicker realization that were in the decline then that opportunity is getting less and less so question if there is a balance what would it Target 60th? Also how would it play in the context of a bear attacks can I bounce to go later on Monday which is another problem with trying to bounce at all but why we wouldn’t look for a bad snow in Monday we are in a bearish wed x Wednesday expiration which influences Friday afternoon and Monday morning and Friday afternoon did behave bearishly so we assume that whatever the signals were that or the inputs worth at the Wednesday expiration signal was picking up on Wednesday afternoon when it triggered barish passively barish aye barish we assume that it will also influence Monday morning and Monday morning by the way tends to be influenced more substantially and obviously more aggressively than Friday afternoon so if Friday afternoon was influenced by a barrage FedEx the Monday morning should be influenced by trending down on embarrass what acts as well doesn’t mean that we don’t Gap up or flatter down but Post open through the morning through the bias environment until it starts lapsing at the very latest 11:30 will be expecting price to Trend down so to what degree could price is there is a balance what would it Target before the bounce say gapping up and then the bear is watex takes takes effect 4950 250 – 25 is one big candidate that’s literally the Gap up who’s in the area it’s test and it can be probed considerably it’s test would be an area to start looking for any signs that the trend is slowing or size not participating as deeply but it’s all sorts of tricks that we can look for it here’s an example of one so let’s say we’re breaking under 2396 testing lower prioritize basically and this is during some timing window but we’re coming out of the timing window say it 11:30 and preferably 15 20 30 minutes prior to that we’ve already recovered back above that relevant level that’s going to tell us if we just hit a major level the market is trying to bottom and probably will be that it probably won’t find sellers or probably needs to find more Sellers from a bounce up here you know sometimes the price just gets out of whack and and sellers just decide it’s not worth it rather take my chances alright let’s look at the comparisons among indexes and then if anybody has starts we can look at those as well question can I go to what makes a passive signal versus an active signal an expiration week what level would have been considered an active barish wettech signal this Wednesday and there’s a number of bells and whistles involved but just generally so here’s where we were on Wednesday and Wednesday’s close let’s examine what made this passive one thing that I need to actually generate the signal is actually analyze for the signal is two consecutive prior sessions I need to see those they have to have some Conformity or just knocking for me sorry some continuity to them that there’s something being expressed in the signal in those sessions we can’t have one session that’s doing something up here and then the next session gaps down and totally different characteristics versus the prior range we’ve definitely got here and another bill or whistle had a relevant level we know 63 is is happening at the time what is the market doing at Wednesday’s close at or overlapping basically the upper end of that range the relevant range it’s actually involved in 63 still 463 is involved in it Henriques we’re not trending up trying to and family trying to Trend up and failing so try to be bullish and failing is almost Barrett it’s passively barish actively barish would have been either with or without this probe to have closed Wednesday under the lower end of that range that’s actively Paris so we’re sellers are actually through irrelevant timing window the clothes producing a new chart point not overlapping previous track points are not necessarily pushing and pulling right now buyers I from a standing stop they suddenly get all excited and produce a gap up they quickly meet at Target 74 so so we can’t it buyer’s could be sponsoring this move at the pleasure of strong hand and sellers that are not involved but being but patiently watching from the sidelines waiting for their opportunity to sell When Buyers are fully expended and I print this out and put it on the refrigerator oops Okay so passive and pass it is not necessarily we can’t what we’re looking for all we were looking for is and I should also say so why are these why are these strong handed sellers you know there’s trying to make a move perhaps or at least buyers aren’t able to sustain their break hire their attempt to break higher it’s a passive signal but it doesn’t mean that that these aren’t strong hands the strong hands are being passive they’re not actively pushing where should the clothes have been on Wednesday for Passive bullish it wouldn’t there wasn’t a setup for a passing bullish we weren’t going to have a pass at Busch the question is really what would Wednesday session have to have done to have been passively bullish and as an anti acid entire session so by the time we got two Wednesdays closed already been maintained and not overlapping not returned that would have been actively there was an opportunity for environment like this for example tiny this I don’t think so we do have an interesting pattern that those are often traced this has been the triangle pattern develops the last great Royal attributed to the fangs Facebook Amazon Netflix Google Apple Tesla so not regard you have Facebook is actually as become a laggard it has a lot of downside just to retraced this last up like just to come into lower prioritize there’s a 10% drop Timber trace this range back down to 148 and why not this Reigns’s last consolidation as already rallied 161.8 which is a big usual satisfaction buying pressure which means that the actual reversal signal is room down to 160 at this stage of the pattern we know there’s room down 165 before suggesting that were heading into this range Monday and Facebook will watch it for another 10 to help time we’re coming into basically habitats really where it matters we’ve got to get out of of 175 to suggest there’s anything higher coming and if it gets out I’ll give it all the benefit of the doubt to extend in that Justin definitely but infinitely that’s going to be a big area to reject closing of the 160 area and really at this point 175 as a stop to a short with of course the risk I have no idea what the what the fundamental or corporate side of this of the Netflix story is with the potential is of the if any of it being an acquisition candidate of course there’s always going to be a there’s always going to be the risk of something like that interesting double tap here double tops are made to be broken eventually which is helpful to know when they’re first reaction is down that eventually you’re going to break above the highset a question is is that basing in order to extend higher or is that a completion of a top Again ongoing series of higher highs and higher lows and it’s just absorbed of attempt to reverse the trend down that’s not to say it’s extending higher and definitely but that’s tough to bet against how much hiring could this extend is this an ATR this is this an 80 or is it not an ADRidea if it’s an 8 ER and explain some of the some Oddities that are going on in the charger in the pattern but I can’t get be reached on this at this level and I could see it extending before having an opportunity to get bearish on it 240 241 8542 the one thing that would turn me bearish on the stock would just be a fresh low on 231 closing under 31 head to the degree that that it’s an 8 ER of course just want to take that into account give it a couple consecutive sessions of such Behavior right by do yeah buddy was desperately in need of a new high any fresh I in here gets it out of major morass this is some ways a head-and-shoulders pattern is that optimal that had is just a little shallow but it is otherwise that’s symmetrical as I would need it to be I called a pivot reversal Head and Shoulders too loud to have an angle but it really out to pull back to 194should I let me get a trigger level here 215 – 1450 has minimum at 2:07 181 pull back potential and that quicklyright supn and it says supernus Pharmaceuticals supernus PharmaceuticalsGreat Scott double top made to be broken you don’t know if it’s going to be on the first pull back or on a deeper one but eventually eventually double tops tend to be recoveredsoon as a lot of resistance in here there is potential that a substantial Peak is being made I would have much more bullish and had a bullish attitude toward the shop on a new High clothes it’s not that it’s any greater risk of not producing that new High clothes in might have had a bad end of the week just basically because the broader Market was falling apart but my big concern right here is just that a lot of upside is being fulfilled and let me just get drill down on that hire close so I really want to call it 4820 or 48 I would expect a test to the 48 area expected to the 48 area it’s really have that test resolves if this is a bearish if this has a bear’s future near-term then it’s going to test 48 and clothes back under the prior High Maybe not immediately you know maybe from maybe from a little deeper dip first maybe from a little deeper first but test 48 and then or test sorry to pry or high which is for 6:50 and close back under it those are the bearish developments test 48 either immediately this week or later from the deeper pull backotherwise a deep purple and meanwhile I should save for this setup the deeper pulled that the deeper pulled that could Target 3825 so until this actually broke under 38 3825 while there’s still potential for this to be topping it will not have reversed price down not yet got to close under 38 to indicate momentum the trend is reversing down neither here nor there toppy pattern and or consolidation actually that starts getting toppy when it rejects it still is a fresh rejection of that still has a good opportunity to resume that I definitely like the volume improving into the probes of prioritize but if it the broader Market environment doesn’t let that happen there’s room down to what 4525 we’ve got something deeper to the downside underway this is where that hole rally though starts to run into trouble and that’s breaking under 138 55 13850 stay away from with don’t break under 13850 and the rally remains intact even though it could be pulling back to 13850 in the interim THX thank you will take a look at it