Saturday Review’s recording (for 8/26/17) …Shifting winds, at 150mph.
An interesting thing happened this week on the way to oblivion. Monday morning’s probe of fresh lows was rejected, and Tuesday’s huge rally corrected the ongoing decline. But the decline hasn’t yet resumed. Why not? Could it be due to something coming on the market’s radar that wasn’t there one week earlier? And could that produce a new bull market rally?
I discuss that previously invisible influence in this weekend’s Saturday Review, and describe the potential paths higher it has opened. Potential paths. The decline’s pattern currently remains very much intact, and so I also reiterate its paths down, and the objectives.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
ARNA, OXISD, AAPL, FB, NFLX, GOOGL. AMZN, AMD, FL, gold
good morning and welcome it is Saturday Saturday review where are we Wednesdays Thursdays Fridays breakout return to the breakout point and extend the decline here’s another form of a break out or leaving a range there’s that Central Point break away from it return to it clothes back under it we haven’t seen is for such a substantial in terms of length or longevity such a substantial range that has been broken so substantially substantial in terms of degree that the resumption or the confirmation of the Breakout has no substantiality to it at all very brief relatively shallow very eerie seems like there is a another shoe to drop and the longer of the delay and dropping the other shoe the bigger than shoe if not the more of them so bottom line if I haven’t made it clear none of this is a cumulative in fact we’ve got a gap outstanding below back to Monday’s close anything about this is a bounce why we did have one likely recovery point to fill in the Gap at Tuesday’s closed 24 5150 and that was filled and that was held it took so long it took an extra day to develop so the likelihood of extending through it to 2461 where there’s measurements where there’s higher priorities Isn’t So required but still on the table until we get out of this orbit until we break under one of these for Lowe’s still on the table and a path her that I’ll describe it a moment nevertheless we’re still just looking at a at a top or at least on the way to ongoing downtrend everything is turning over rolling over and being productive about it so what about that potential bumpers and so to what degree well at 2461 was avoided for an extra day or the opportunity for last week to be after Wednesday’s session to be attractive back up to the Gap back to Tuesdays those a 5150 at that point I had it been done Tuesday already been done Wednesday likely to be tested up to 61 but the delay took 61 off the table well that is also because the door was open to extending The pullback Notches 238 but 229 we only got the 38 and Friday didn’t extend down it also if anything was optimism not necessarily in a sexual so the door or the path up is open either remains open or is back open but more important than that definition is that it’s open the path is open a little bit longer so whether there are higher Prairie lives at 61 then Dad calculable jective Susanna 61 that would satisfy all but it’s a singular numerical representation of a cluster of objectives and higher prices at cetera there’s also potential Into The Sweet Spot short of touching the height of the actual High so there’s the prior High the high prior to the actual High 2480 little high that if touched because that interim Louis been probed if 2480 is ever touched again will have a very high degree of confidence that at some point we’re going to be testing the actual High which by the way is a pivotal high it was a pivotal session once pivotal reversals are productive if there ever were tested it’s not just a form aboard durable top that will be probed by quite a bit into the 25 welder 225 s is ever touched again so sweet spot in here if 2461 Thruway closed we will start looking for That Sweet Spot short of the pivotal I better retest of the prior High prior I being 2474 so somewhere in this area there’s a number of things that could be tested there’s a clothes for instance in 78 7775 cash session it’s not the most likely that structure has a lot of overlap at 77 so we get through 61 on a closing basis 77 attack test attraction at the very least gets into play so something to be aware of since last week’s drop certainly plausible that from a fundamental ornamental perspective that very real down slide potential plunge was underway when the hurricane came no pun intended on the radar on the markets radar and the potential for its positive impact on the story that was unfolding otherwise bad economic numbers and the Ripple effects of it’s a bit on policy at cetera on legislation when that came on the radar and the intense amount of damage it might do that helped to stymie this had a very relevant spot remember speaking of breakouts that are returned to before extending are objective are minimum objective had been 24 24 25 25 which Gap likely to be tested down to at least 2421 so there’s that break out yet to retest one of the things have slowed it down or the things that identified that its sponsorship was impatient and therefore late stages we candid well that’s been filled now so that’s natural support and it’s capable of holding and it’s capable of launching a bounce it’s capable of launching recovery I suspect not willing to be disproved monitoring for any country evidence such as closing about 2477 or at least touching 2480 that would suggest a much more major up leg is underway absent that any kind of Bounce here unless we see some other cumulative structure unless we see for instance prior to recovering through 77 touching 2480 anything like that that would tell us where it heading willing to the 2500 and we did get a drop here 2420 mediately 2429 if that word to retest these prior Lowe’s without breaking under these perilous we can test them 2412 is the next 24 1175 2412 is an extra large active that would need to hold to stay away from sub 2400 which point there is no more upside without a much deeper drop bounces doomed to failure that point recovering back Above This level would be similar to Simply recovering above 7780 already without that extra dip 2412 doesn’t make it any it’s really this area doesn’t make any difference still needs to recover above this week size that would still indicate that this correction had ended that don’t require a mediately extending to and then through 7777 those are the premise that is unfolding to the downside and we’ve gone so long without hurricanes the Earth bounce mode or resuming the decline and it’s not a requirement but I suspect that if we’re closing on any day closing under 2438 we’re testing 29 as well so 2138 to relevant level and I’ll explain how it’s still relevant on a closing basis and a moment even if we’re probably under it but if we’re probably under 2438 we’re probably also testing 2429 so why not just focus on 2429 sand said so much bigger level at that point once it’s tested because it 2429 is tested then closing back above 24 38 on that same session intraday test of 29 to whatever degree probably down to 2427 recovering the clothes above 2438 doesn’t reverse momentum up but gives us an advance clue that these sellers are not strong handed why not why not infer from that that a rally is underway well week and its sellers don’t always follow with strong-headed buyers we can’t add sellers that only fill this Gap back to 29 could also be the Advance Team that are sacrificed to chip away at support so that stronger sellers come in and take it down until we actually if 29 is tested and 38 is recovered until we’re actually closing back above this structure momentum hasn’t yet reversed up that’s how we find out that this whole back is already done already likely to Trend to new highs and not just in the sense of retesting the prior hide the trending to new highs above 2500 well into the 2500 without having to wait for this pivotal High 2482 be tested as far as that the new but as far as the same closing under this structure which is the next anyway bull market since the election or 291 is relevant support closing above one above 295 points higher closing under to 91 points lower we had a couple close is under 291 where they rejected weather was the closing of 295 on Monday that in this Natural Gas that wasn’t decisive and trying to get decisive at the following up in my gapping up really wasn’t the best way to get to resolve that bullishly a dip that recovered two three would have been much more would have been bullish whereas just testing 3 aggressively instead reflected weekends but here’s here’s the point though we didn’t close under 291 actually until yesterday but even before that on Thursday we were in really I’m starting on Wednesday but mostly on Thursday and became final the setup that said with this storm bearing down on the golf and on closing productivity production getting a lot of headlines of a lot of refiners closing at a safety not disturbing damaged but Adam safety because leading to potential for damage cutting Supply in other words why isn’t natural gas surgeon what was surgeon that’s why it was able to not to decisively close enough to 95 and GAP up the next day that’s why I despite gapping down to 291 it was able to bounce and on Thursday Gap up and probed 295 without closing above that is the weekend and buyers reacting to the headlines but when they’re not able to get that done when the news is not matching price action and vice versa price knows something that the news doesn’t been so this weekend for instance already last night we’re finding out Galveston at least at this point is not taking the brunt of it Galveston where the Galveston Texas for a lot of the refineries are closing or shutting down and sake of safety meaning that they will probably be back online with nominal interruption so any premium in here because of the supply concerns needs to be corrected so looking for a bottom 281 but that’s how the Market discounts things and if it’s doing the same thing here for instance it didn’t get going on a bigger balanced and get 71 out of the way the last couple days because of concerns that the headlines won’t be very bullish from the next few days that’s going to need to be worked out and in the market can get back to doing what it was intended to do any questions on the marketupdated you I definitely what update I introduced previously because of its reverse split that made it one of the very few just a handful of stocks with cannabis sector exposure that could then be attractive to them people spaded in institutionally where otherwise sub $5 stocks let alone sub $0.05 stocks are off limits they had a earnings problem and that is seemingly working itself out just have to get through 20 to 35 2287 and then presumably 2370 is a big deal get through that and there’s some major move under way well that’s joined by another and I don’t really have any working knowledge on oxis International deal that it recently did but you can see that screamed from $0.04 to $0.12 and not too long before that this is the beginning of August this is July under $0.02 it’s trading post split was it 300 till 1 or 1 1/2 300 sorry o x i s d I’m not recommending this stock I’m just waiting out that what what can happen or not happen with the sudden availability of a cannabis stock being able to be participated in institutional lot of Premium has been knocked out of this one back to August back to levels at August entry looking at things Apple where the broader Market Apple was holding its range what that means it’s going to be rewarded for that a performance or on its chipping away at this for these Pryor High as which we can make one assessment that’s pretty strong support because it’s holding but it still needs some sort of rubber band stretch to snap the rally back into existence and it’s tough to buy this above 160 so much simile for Google who the things have held up well generally but they do have more downside Google dial 866turn which reason to change this that I think it was falling over the edge here back in June when the Whole Foods story came out and created a retest of the high that only we tested the high but again needs to be rewarded however being permanently needs to be rewarded and it was rewarded pretty impermanent Lee before reversing back down and that chipping away looking at sewing its way through that prior low so Amazon sewing for a pulled back to 840-3855 areasell trigger on Netflix would it is too late to sell it other than to be prepared to buy it back and 160 a.m. and it’s just five or six dollars when the potential is for that dip to resolve into a new rally leg or at least a big retrenchment back up to 177 you know if what if rather than stretching the pool bag limit or stretching the rubber band to snap up into a rally leg if rather than get it out of the way to the downside bouncing the 177 first would have the risk of stretching the rubber band so it could extend down prior to dipping any deeper testing 177 what would be an interesting so are these funds are these mutual funds tgldx yeah I don’t really think we’re going to be able to work with those on chart but if you want to give me the sector we can look at the sector and there’s probably some degree of comparison AMD and a it’s left out standing this Gap up above all prioritize and that even though it’s within this range which means it doesn’t require being tested off and it is especially when it does come from a triangle break falsely and One Direction reverse more substantial in the opposite direction and then off and resume but if then to the degree that requires a retest and we’re looking for the pull back to end at some point once they got under 1170 that more substantial reaction damn became likely and that more substantial reaction down is just now testing the lower end of the triangle it has if it’s going and I’m not saying it has to recover but if it’s going to recover and probably need to flush out more sellers down to the 1065 1095 area having said that though closing above 1320 1345 I don’t like it in terms of timing and as being a little too shallow in the near-term but I’d have to suspect something more substantial to the outside is already going on there’s a longest 13 2013 45 holds his resistance for probably still headed to 1065 1095 and that’s where a bigger decision is madeFoot Locker had Facebook actually a done Facebook before I post one up but I’ll come back to it we can look at it again Facebook had another earnings Miss morning so if there’s any reason to buy or Foot Locker that is if there’s any reason to buy Foot Locker it’s for the potential to fill this Gap test Tire Pryor lives it’s a little premature for that meanwhile this sort of the pattern very difficult to reverse its Trend not that it never happens but there’s just no there’s just no reason when seemingly such a widely followed company is so recently losing and an ongoing basis losing so much trust that it’s just suddenly going to reverse that trend so if the question is whether it’s worth of by at some point it will be worth it by with the potential up to 4725 and if you run the risk reward on that the reward side may seem pretty attractive 10 or 11 points to the upside the problem is there’s more than 10 or 11 points to the downside not to mention time value because even if we knew it hundred percent degree of certainty that this were the absolute low it could be yours literally before even bouncing there while enduring the risk of it being much more Bridgeport time-consuming are much more downside let’s get a weekly on this just to see how horrible it can get yeah this is the channel of the channel of and there’s a reason for that it already has been at least attack 160 and it’s a break of 160 that gets us back into this prior range as far as resuming the rally I’m really in this pattern and so much congestion we really have to see a new High clothes and be careful that there’s not a second consecutive higher close to confirm it there’s anything bullish about the pattern in case of a break lower that would indicate the context is only temporary it is all this congestion that’s likely to be retraced but that doesn’t mean they’re necessarily reverses back into a rally alright so the tgldx vgpmx these are these are precious metals funds or on a Minor’sif they are let’s just go and look at colon precious metal funds so let’s go to look at gold real quickly we do this everyday of course twice a day in the market or and market wrap and the daily spot too but not on the longer-term bigger picture stuff so it’s look at the bigger picture real quick like I’m gold which you have to Discount Friday’s action I mean in relation to news yelling was speaking at at the Jackson Hole symposium neutral basis I did discuss in the market wrap and in the daily spot that actually this action that came back from retesting 1288 which is a cell signal that had been tested Tuesday retested it Tuesday’s recovery stop short of anything relevant like a prior hi to reverse momentum up or decayed that sellers have been trapped and so there’s a retest and a fresh low now it’s recovery forget about the president to it that’s not very relevant but still stop short actually recovering an interim I remember this or a prior hi this is no longer the prior high now this is the prior hi to the new test yeah we closed above it but overlapping it so it still not decisive but it does give a chance to limit the negative effects of 1288 spring in fact to limit the potential for closing under 1288 if this is on gold if this is immediately productive Monday already rallying then the bigger picture does get a lot more interesting than the upside because there’s some significant highs in here kind of expanding you can sing that is not reliable that’s not the most predictable Dead Rising legend of the end so you can understand why it’s a little suspicious that 1288 isn’t breaking it seems a little seems like a lot of optimism up here but I’ll give it every benefit of the doubt if Monday is breaking higher especially if Tuesday confirms but the reward is new highs 1305 what is the objective 1305 was tested last week and 1305 held if the subsequent action held 1288 couple times and recovered to produce over railing we’re not going to eating and I are but actually bring in a couple bigger bars breaking out especially as we get through higher prior loves then the reward is new highs above the upper end of those higher prices and if that’s the resolution if this pattern look at this measurement got to the room for noise under a 61 8 retracement anywhere in there if that’s recovered and not on one leg of course not in a week but this is the kind of productivity that such extended basing can ultimately lead to so I can be packed into the resolution the last week’s testing him 1288 1305 resistance a lot can be back into it as in the resolution to that is fairly productive in the longer term if that 1305 Old to 1288 holds that’s not necessarily resuming the decline under 1288 could find support on this plane can program fresh low and then start all over again and actually that is the likelihood if 1288 brakes sub-1000 not all in a week not all in a single leg but that’s the kind of thing it can set into motion right I think we got all the stops if there is anything else let me know and I feel free to post requesting the week if something is in motion needs to be assessed immediately he has been fun lots of swings lots of very predictable levels and resolutions and nothing in the pattern it’s going to end anytime soon enjoy it then as well