Saturday Review’s recording (for 9/30/17) …Quarter-colored glasses.
The market eked its way higher into quarter-end. Thanks, end-o’quarter portfolio window dressing! Will the new month change perceptions? Nah, no one ever associates anything bearish with October. Oh, wait…
Actually, as the new month gets underway, this week’s ongoing low-volume environment offers important context to price action. We discuss how, and define the likely paths the market will take from here.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
AMZN, TSLA, ABR, PLUG, BCS, MZOR, FEYE, AAPL
okay good morning and welcome it is Saturday time for the Saturday review and there we go Okay so today’s topic is volume Why is voting important what if we had recently and just as importantly what’s coming up that is going to impact volume and why should that matter to price volumes big deal we had we could certainly inhibit price action this is ahead of Friday globally this is Friday at self ahead of the afternoon and here is a late surge price search but not volume surge in the market all of which is a function of proximity two and extreme in other words looking for 9 minutes start without the overnight this is a high couple weeks ago this is a high couple days ago and this is where the session was greeted given more participation I’m not sure that we would have gotten up here I’m not sure that the prior I would have held so easily for a couple days ahead of getting here or head of Friday or that it wouldn’t have been rejected more resoundingly or rejected at all as opposed to just Wednesdays reaction down into Thursday’s open but we do know is that Friday extended higher despite the High having been tested Wednesday with a passively barish session it’s not a signal it’s not a trigger it’s just to point out there’s a Pryor High couple weeks earlier that’s being probed Wednesday not an expiration week so it’s not contributing to a wedding cakes there’s no other Catalyst like expiration coming Friday that’s going to be developing but on Wednesday the most liquid of the week there was a probe of a Pryor High that wasn’t maintain through the clothes and the following session didn’t do anything to reject that notion that the prior I was significant so basically this 2506 – 2507 area keep that in mind we just have to revisit it at some point there’s no particular timing to it there’s nothing to throw into an equation just know that the further stretch the market might get if it does from 2506 2507 without correcting only producing higher and higher lows if that even happens the more of a steeper and deeper reaction down will be impending the cure to that is to not delay testing 2506 2507 to take perhaps Friday’s rally itself in immediately reverse it down that could get done other things would be neutralized just from 25 to 9:50 Friday morning Friday mornings bicep signal that had ample opportunity to trigger the opening surge came within a tech Kurt is the opening surge came within a tick of 2509 50 the mornings by us up signal its reaction down recovered in tirely to it within several minutes at 10:15 it could have triggered had it wanted to and when I say wanted to that is if strong handed sponsorship for buyers they would have made it happen instead it wasn’t until after 10:30 that the bias up signal did break and that the market did extend higher through it without ever tration to 2509 50 Beyond to buy a signal during a know by its environment is nobody eventually so add to 2506 2507 2509 50 and by the way 2508 which is where at 10:15 the market actually signaled no bias those two levels 2508 and 2509 50th 2509 50th and requirement 2508 often as well as retraced to correct for that nobody has trending 2950 – 2506 attractions below attractions below that were created because of the market decided to extend higher either at a structurally incorrect time that is structurally after prior session had tried for extending higher and failed to maintain the probe through the clothes and failed to attract reinforcements the following day and calculate incorrectly extended higher nothing’s incorrect if the markets doing it it has a reason to do it but incorrect for the purpose of creating a durable break out that’s the wrong way to do it so we’ve got these attractions below and the only reason why we’ve got them why the market was able to get it done is because of lower volume we had the Rosh Hashanah holiday last week and we had the Yom Kippur holiday actually I’m going today but yesterday evening it began and typically it’s just it’s just I’m going to dish in the market as much as in the religion exposed that volume will die off participation is waiting is people leave to make their services for the evening so in that little volume environment it’s not that the low volume for Dick’s price Direction the low volume qualifies that price Direction and if the price Direction has been up in that environment or sustaining up Green Arrow ranging no real consequences to extending iron then we get to at least get some insight if not a timing signal again but insight into that participation into the motivations were they bilities of that sponsorship and caught week and it so that’s interesting and it doesn’t necessarily mean that we were reversed down because of it that this collapses entirely higher prices do create room to expand selling pressure without it doing damage to the chart in other words look how much higher the market went Friday and now it has all that room too expensive pressure just to get back to 950 or 2508 2500 7:06 just take care of all that and by the way while it’s testing the passive barish session probably some sort of retrenchment into the range as well but you still have from the prior low just eyeballing it 61.8% down to 9750 before doing any damage to the up Trends or Tivia trip momentum will have reversed maybe only temporarily but structurally we still would be in a ongoing series of higher highs and higher lows but it’s not just about correcting that we candid sponsorship we have more weekend at times it coming up Golden week in China they’re closed Germany will be closed on Tuesday several other lesser exchanges through the week so in that week handed volume environment can the market reverse down can it reverse the trend down if a tree falls in a forest and other words if nobody is around does it make a sound I assume then that Parable there’s no forest animals around either but we know scientifically it creates shock waves and that disrupts the atmosphere that disrupts disrupts the air and creates sound as a product of that action but if Nobody’s around to hear it does it matter in other words if volume is low and the market is dropping again price doesn’t or volume doesn’t determine price price to tour volume determines the quality of price Direction so just because volume low volume accompanied uptrending or break higher and low volume if it persists or is going to persist doesn’t mean that direction of previous low-volume extends solo volume can also account for a drop or a company to drop but if we do drop on low volume if we get that 61.8% retracement if we do get all the way to 9750 or just probe a little bit under the lower prioritize 2506 if we can get that out of the way again while volume remains relatively low which it should through Tuesday it may have some sort of a some sort of volume increase but even then it’s best most robust levels breakout attempt it’s not an actual break out Friday it’s not multi but if this new trend High clothes were corrected immediately starting the week as quickly as possible one two days maybe into Wednesday morning back off at 7:50 or even then there would be on the edge of our seats we can get down to 2490 2489 75 and still not signal the trend has reversed down but if we can get that done out of the way through Tuesday through Wednesday morning and at least 7:50 or under any relevant level then we could be looking at a more substantial rally the substantial substantial rally the more substantial that we had discussed previously well into the 2525 85 Etc rally significant by the way slope steepening as well that’s so far we have you can’t so far we have not the greatest of virgins from the uptrending slope but we have had at least the delay in returning to that uptrend resistance two little bit longer time. Between touches off of that happens it creates an overthrow and in this case by the time it happens if it doesn’t happen pretty quickly on Monday or Tuesday then you can see how that uptrending slope carries that up finding resistance quite a bit higher to say 2541 swing it significantly higher while just getting selling pressure I’ve tried buying pressure expended if the low volume environment is able to get that done instead so the more bullish scenario wood wood expand selling pressure or at least use what little selling pressure it has because of the low volume environment which should reach its lowest levels on Tuesday again China’s closed all week so that’s a major participant or Catalyst we do have the employment situation report on Friday and that depresses participation on Thursday so number of different volume suppressants interacting through the week if the market can use that too it’s at the rally can use that to his Advantage by retracing however deeply within the levels I laid out and then why not use that same low-volume environment not not attracting reinforcements to the decline to break even lower and actually reverse the trend instead suddenly have an attraction because we’re so far away from the recent High catapult that backup or more like slingshot that stretching that rubber band snapping it back up to new eyes that’s the bullish scenario but if it’s driven by or at least enabled by the lower volume lower volume element then and that lower volume element isn’t an issue as we get into the end of the week let alone get through the end of the week that leaves a very short time that leaves a very brief time to be able to doto be able to do something to this degree no gray area there that is down to 9750 if it can get there with room for noise down to 24 90-89 if it needs it and then continue utilizing that low volume which prevents attracting new sponsorship to take price even lower utilize that low volume to be attracted back to the upper end of the range and the slingshot it ahead of the employment situation report on Friday that’s how we get out of here to the upside in a big way and as I showed that uptrending resistance that just puts us further into the future when we meet up with it again at a minimum 2541 so the reward for initially reversing down the reward for initially reversing down as not necessarily this deeply but perhaps as deeply and recovering into the end of the week preferably ahead of the employment situation report is to extend the rally to 2541 this is just a note in the end of the week that’s not a down leg one thing that would help is Friday’s new trend I close a new tried to hide close on a Friday historically is eventually followed by another new trend I close the reliability of that is offset by the lack of timing element because that doesn’t mean it all that it’s the next session that produces that new trend I close often it does sometimes it doesn’t over the course of a weekend A lot can happen it usually doesn’t because it would have to be on so many individual participants radar Radars that they wouldn’t and Abel breaking do a new trend High close on a Friday their participation wouldn’t be behind that so usually nothing significant happens over the weekend occasionally it does or in this case possibly low-volume was as much an enabler as was being in proximity to the eyes and so that needs to be corrected sooner rather than later so the reliability and eventually recovering to another new trend High clothes offset by the potential that there is an initial or media traisman also that reliability is offset by not having any reliability on how deep for how long of a immediate reaction down there might be if there is one what we’re looking at is as deep as 92-97 50 and probably for the course of a couple of days that’s if there’s a day that would not satisfy the objective maybe even Wednesday morning that’s the beginning of that then recovers the end of the week again preferably the employment speak with is what the pattern where to look like a new High clothes would be the bullish place to greet the employment situation report get some sort of takes a missile is launched from somewhere we know where and actually probes of fresh low before closing back about 9750 that’s foolish but at this point we now have a pivotal High we wouldn’t have to greet Friday’s news from a new trend I close we could breathe it from Just closing about the pivotal High so I can’t tell you yet without seeing what the line Looks like what would be bullish greeting the employment situation report in this pattern of a initially pulling back but it would have to be on the upswing above some relevant bubble and perhaps more than the development would be to actually extend hiring immediately Friday I’ve tried Monday from Friday’s close so the more bearish pattern would be to immediately produced that nutrient high class maybe we start off the day in Decline again that was a low-volume rally that was a low-volume rally on Friday new I close or not had it could already over night or in the morning correct probably not so significantly as 2497 50 but 2509 50 neutralize the attraction back to Friday mornings nobody is trending bicep signal 2509 50 maybe 2508 maybe a little more constructively all the way down to lower prioritize 2506 2507 but get that done first and then recover to produce a new trend I close on Monday or even on Tuesday again low-volume environment why not just room for noise and then as volume starts to pick up then as we get into the most liquid day of the week on Wednesday even on the most liquid of weeks this isn’t dead but even if it’s the most liquid of weeks Wednesday is going to be the most liquid day of the week and a head of the employment report when it’s going to be difficult at all on Thursday and Thursday afternoon if we’ve had one or two days of rallying that have neutralized the new trend I close requirement that’s going to be difficult to Rally out of there we could be greeting the employment situation report on Thursday from back under which was the High clothes we could be greeting it from back under a Pryor High or we could be grading it from Simply Having satisfied that upside objective without putting in any other new objective above and without having corrected in the interim so we have a couple of scenarios here either one gets us to a fresh High this week whether it’s immediately out of the gate or whether it’s more constructively pulling back first and then potentially setting up for a bigger rally which would be a likely outcome in an ongoing series of our eyes and our Lowe’s but finally if we can get that new trend I close done quickly and then start racing again attractions back to lower prioritize it 25 or 6 the week handed rally that still requires a 61.8% correction which would be higher if we were to Pro by our first the 9750 first and then the attractions below and then the return of volume into the employment situation report that’s where the down leg the downturn can actually gain traction can do damage and can start to reverse the trend down it’s really difficult in this ongoing range you know if we look at this ongoing range the basically was entered three weeks ago and since then has fluctuated basically around what happens to be 24 9750 the only thing we have here for instance on Wednesday is chipping away at its resistance and right here and then on Friday low-volume break above it one session so this is not a solid base it can be evolved into a solid base with a deeper pull back like 9750 that holds and recovers of describe but it’s in that creating a solid base where the where the rally runs the risk of no longer basing of getting too deep attracting too many sellers that low-volume environment not working to his advantage question or 2485 2485 being that high or low at this point it’s the last relative low to a pullback that has produced a fresh eye so that would be one what indication of a of a trend reversal one signal to use the close of that session or of a low session the low close in the whole sequence we can’t even go by that same session can we right because the recovery was back above the prior High so it’s really the next day’s low close around 9550 that alone would start to suggest going down it would show me confirmation that could be easily overcome but wouldn’t have to wait for 2485 more than 61.8% retracement of the rally which at this point would be back at 7:50 and then under whatever has been created by the character that decline roughly 2490 at this point I’d assume so number of different ways to go about identifying transversals but that would be the absolute low prior to last up like two different set-ups set up a number one is exactly as you describe it the closer you are to the further you are from the other and so it’s just like we are that you’re going to that you’re going to return to the end of the extreme that is near before going to the other end of the extreme and I should say 3 setups the second set up being that it’s likelier for price to extend in the direction that it’s been extending it but there’s another set up that would speak to the likelihood and that is what’s the likelihood of a low-volume breakout being maintained being valid avoiding a correction or reversal from Gathering reinforce back to that other end that otherwise was unlikely well the answer to that is if that correction can be done on low volume as well two wrongs don’t make a right or a left turn so yeah it’s unlikely on to two perspectives to return back to that prior low but if that attempt to return back to that parlay with that correction of the rally off of that fire low is delayed until it’s done it’s sponsored by stronger Hands by bitter volume will suddenly that likelihood of returning to the prior Love Grows dead clear so okay but it is weak hands General reflective we can’t because these are not issues that bigger players have to get very exposed to they have Alternatives that they prefer because of their liquidity demandstake back the Russell is that considered as speculative index not just because of its its components typically having lower volume level lower caps let alone less consistency in earnings or coverage Etc but also because it when I want to get more speculative and conservative and still be invested in stocks they’ll turn to the ndx the NQ Futures Contract where there’s a hundred of growth considered growth companies but still as well established enough that they have larger cats more liquidity more coverage excuse me this is what’s going on from a speculative nature this we have to consider in the context of two other things in the context of our control group which is the S&P 500 which we’ve been looking at which proved to prioritize midweek which extended to new highs to the clothes and through the perspective of how to Dow is the Dow relative to the control group The Dow being 30 the opposite end of the spectrum of the Russell very well-established very predictable revenue streams wide coverage liquid Etc women when bigger players still want to be involved in the market or I have to be involved in the market in a lot of cases this is where they’ll go if they aren’t at all or aren’t entirely comfortable with the market and as you can see the Dow is underperforming the S&P 500 this is a new turn for the Under Pressure while the Dow was significantly outperforming member of the day this week on Wednesday it’s Pryor High well it’s Pryor High actually developed a little bit later in the Dow for relative comparison purposes but the dad didn’t do that it has been working off it’s out performance over the last couple weeks or week and a half make a new relative I close relative to the last week it’s still under its high so there’s not enough information here to call distributive or cumulative or outperforming underperforming but they’re no longer leading the way verses and Qs which atom much more significant upside this week but still remain under prioritize so no clear signal from coming off of signals that we’re getting more defensive which goes back to being another reason to be suspicious of the low volume new high that it’s not your turn sustainable the globewe could probe higher Presley probing hi are we would look Sunday night if there were any probing higher about Friday’s close remember the World Market so I really haven’t really had an opportunity to respond yet to us markets making a new I close its otherwise been a tree falling in a forest so they’ll have that opportunity and Sunday night might get some obligatory follow through to the outside will look at that Monday morning for any size of complexity if it’s been any komplex move higher highs fullbacks high-rise book no no singular surges then we’ll be able to identify that as just further entrenching the uptrend because that would be that would matter if Monday morning were greeted lower already I can’t really advocate for selling any strength up here but if we’re greeting Monday’s open from under Friday afternoons low from under 25 12:50 and we have it yet satisfied 9:50 that would reflect enough optimism excessive optimism that I’d expect that reaction down to persist and we be looking for a negative day on Monday so greeting Monday’s open from under 12:50 without having formed any new complexity above and without having satisfied 9:50 below could and would likely put the market on defense Monday morning and by extension as I probably through Tuesday if not into Wednesday morning otherwise there’s no signal in here that’s going to make the market and he likely to extend higher nothing that’s going to happen on Sunday night or Monday morning it’s going to make the rally any likelier to extend near-term because it’s already extending so it’s just a matter of what might throw doubt into the up truckyeah let’s do stocks penny stock request please go ahead and post themhow do to from everyone I have a couple that were mailed in of the two from everyone and circle back around starting with Amazon not a good day Friday we’ve got this break here that developed under basically 972 having potential down to the 929 10 920 area big area which is basically being a premature reversal when there is still room to bounce up to ten eleven ten ten so what about last week’s Bounce from fresh Lowe’s from having probe fresh close maybe a little prematurely short of this pull-back to 910 920 and I think it speaks for itself when we look at volume so the low was mad on free extreme volume really out of nowhere so I can’t say that that’s Rising volume it’s a big volume day to be sure and the following session pierced a fresh low but while volume return to its normal levels and then the balance of the week exploited that set up that’s on Tuesday I’m extremely it was expiration on that attributed that can be attributed to the big volume but there hasn’t been anything but Corrections since then as the Contracting volume suggest? And I know too that was rejected no I don’t think so rejected but we can certainly look at the support under 947 really dead at 9:41 that’s been shipped away and if we look at that not this week slow but the prior load Farlow closes around 9:45 yesterday was down to 9:38 I like using 941 on this has the singular representation I could see air pocket Behavior developing at this point it’s not required but under 941 I want to see what’s going on I want to see volume expanding and basically price extending down sharply but the 910 910 lot of support in there I’m support that have chipped away gets his dad made 50 low-volume looks just like we probably should disgust what is that they’re leading the market and when is that they are the market but in either case we’re probably not going to see different volume patterns from the market Tesla to Teslas in an ongoing signal in the add to buy signal though not really a media time in the inflection it was there didn’t really show up until the next until the next hit and even that it took a while to chip away at it as a bicycle it’s been structurally fulfilled and that is to produce a new high It produced a new Hive as momentarily is it might have been but calcula blee still had potential to extend to 412 413 so I’m going to be just a little suspicious about this break under support this break under uptrending support which is testing its prior low he hasn’t had two consecutive closes under that inflection had one in the context of volume control so the one thing I would be able to say on Tesla is closed under Thursday’s low clothes under the bridge at 3:34 33540 expanding none of which is a bicycle but one more break back Above This 358 inflection point it’s actually a range from 35062 360 structural new I won’t be sufficient to fulfill that bicycle closing about 358 area should get us to 413 Barbour Realty doesn’t look like anything new in the price action there has been some volume if you can back out this volume Spike of course it didn’t do anything I didn’t have any price associated with it it was inside day in the low or the fresh low that followed it was on Contracting volume expand into it so no second consecutive lower close no Gap left outstanding it doesn’t change the bicycle so 830 830 one Remains the bicycle above 240 volume drops off considerably has price consolidates so looks like a valid Breakout big objective here is for a big toe back limit is 250 so long as 250 holds we should be headed to for let’s say near Trevor headed to 311 so long as 250 holds 311 is in play alright BCS last call Freddy stocks alright pretty clear Line in the Sand here under under 9:10 to 9:20 that’s really the maximum pull back there is some potential to touch it or pierce it while testing these lower prioritize I’m not say there will be a full back there although we’ll conveniently located there but then either that breaks higher or break slower as far as avoiding these lower prioritizes of avoiding the Jeopardy of even attacking let alone touching 9:10 to 9:20 is there any immediate Rally or buying pressure that would help too just get the rally back underwayyou don’t normally I’d see a fairly consistent slope here this is really interested this little area would be contained by it of course there’s been a lot of fluctuations as being an 80 are there haven’t been a lot of fluctuation in the pound I’m not about to run to mass but I would assume that there’s some influence but the question is is there anything that price can do at this point to offset this downside risk and there’s not much what can it do is recover you noticed these higher fryer Lowe’s so that’s normal to test 2 but just testing it doesn’t really mean much it’s actually recovering it going to have to get out above 1085 that would clear the way to avoiding a deeper pull back and that deeper pull back being a risk of bigger risk of extending dad even deeper anywayseeing this especially when it’s on volume and you can tell volume is in this phase much more significant than in this phase and there’s nothing that says it has to be seen plenty of charts it look like this where volume would be reversed where higher volume if I are buying at all but if preceded a lower volume consolidation at the highs but this volume keep staying strong I like seeing that and that’s how the entirety of what I like saying they complete picture here of the volume pattern a company until this point or through this point we don’t know is that just too speculative surge how’s that going to stand for the test of time and it immediately gaps down and their concern is raised and we no gaps like to be filled it doesn’t mean they’re going to be exceeded and if this whole pull back were on larger volume or if the axle recovery to fill that gap for on week or volume and instead it’s on back to expanding volume you can see that expanding volume into this bounce and then back to that Gap though right here another question did that just neutralize the upside of traction and now I can double top and head back down while expanding volume into that test suggest suggest no this is on its way up we don’t know that there’s going to be any further consolidation in this case there is and that allows us to identify the triangle ascending triangle pattern and at this point I really don’t care what volume does while waiting if there’s a support its last touch is basically 4646 what is that 4620 I don’t care for a 61.8% retracement of this leg actually coincides there but there’s room for noise under it down to 4360 4375 4375 put this on a watch list if it’s not that it’s going to or whatever the story is getting better 278 it anyway but if there is any kind of a downdraft they throw the baby out with the bathwater good baby out with the bathwater and this would be one of the good baby the rally than likely continues 5875 6455 by the wayI don’t know if there’s a difference where where the differences between interesting and chaotic but this is interesting volume action Macy’s organized around price moves of significance but it’s not really coordinated ultimately the pattern is resolving up that’s a pretty interesting safe right herepretty interesting save just give me a pretty big hurdle by the same token 1725 1730 to get through I’ll feel most confident and the rally effort on a close-up of 1785 this is nagging of course this Gap this Gap this Gap course. Doesn’t seem to mind the recovery doesn’t seem to mind the gaps outstanding so also give it every benefit of the doubt and a close up of 1785 considering how this has resolved while leaving gaps outstanding respect if you almost don’t want to see the Gap filled so really the deepest pool back not that that’s a Target but in the case of a pullback I’d want to see this 1570 area hold 1560 at which point I’d be able to lower the 1640s 1635 no other stocks so let’s have the Saturday review here thanks everyone for being here thanks for for the questions for the stock ideas oh and you know what I’m sorry I really should update couple weeks ago when the at the new product revealed that that’s typically wear Susie as of Peaks before we got here I was able to identify if we if there were the opportunity 2 cylinder 1 6370 that be a good spot in fact it was tested reverse down under what would that be the trigger to that setup under 160 – 162 25 the closing under that prior low Wood and put into play 150 which was met and it was attacked last Friday and what I described here last Saturday and a fresh load was probed Monday and held when I could have been any any more bearish or pessimistic of a day without actually being another words closing any lower would have validated the session as extending the decline instead of literally overlapping and every single leg Friday’s low so immediately. Recovered through Wednesday the inflection that says the recovery was triggered above 152 display the bad reviews faulty part there always is with an iPhone and iPad sales on the iPhone 8 Apple iPhone for the iPhone 6 weeks after the iPhone 8 have a great rest of the weekend will be open tomorrow at 6 p.m. for the Globex open celebrating the new year