Saturday Review’s recording (for 9/9/17) …Stored energy, for not much longer.
The holiday-shortened week had only one rally. That was Tuesday afternoon, following Tuesday’s gap down and steep, deep slide through the noon hour. Gapping up Wednesday has since only ranged sideways. Basing for another upleg, or distribution?
This is one of the important questions discussed in this weekend’s Saturday Review. We also note the hand-off during July between stocks and bonds, and check the current influence of July’s ongoing Downtrending Pivotal Resistance. The potential and false signals of NDX and the Dow relative to S&Ps is also analyzed.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
CMA, JPM, MS, BAC, GS, NFLX, FB, ARNA, AMD, GE
Alright good morning and welcome it is Saturday it’s time for Saturday review thank you for taking time from your weekend to join us we’re going to go over the market I’ve got a couple by then get your sting Vantage points and then we will discuss stocks and he’s talked requests anybody has first though let’s review last week’s Market where we started and we got here we rolled the forward or the front-month contract to December from September is a holiday shortened week and we came in with Fallout so to speak from another North Korean missile it’s two weekends in a row and we’ll see what happened or not really weekends it was the prior weekend was Monday not the Labor Day weekend kind of a delayed response we had ended the prior week on Friday stopping just short here’s the bigger picture just short of touching the pivotal High that is the high prior to the actual High so I’m going Trend actual High the high prior to the actual has the pivotal high and there’s the interim low once a tantrum low is breached which it may never be the trend may just continue but if that is ever breached there is no reason to return to the pivotal hi actually touch that pivotal High other than to eventually touch the actual High there’s plenty of reasons but if after breaching that interim low the pivotal high is retested then that actual high is very likely or historically almost guaranteed to be retested eventually it doesn’t really matter or isn’t very helpful if they’re close together and if that test of the pivotal hi just keeps extending hired to test an actual High head last week’s High last Friday so I actually touch that pivotal Heights top three tix short didn’t do it had it actually touched it and then pulled back that would be very helpful to know the context of this being just temporary and having a date with the actual High that can add confidence to buying a pull back or looking for pullbacks to buy looking for supports to hold instead of brake lower three tix is pretty close so we can’t get terribly decisive but we will look back to the prior week everything about the bounce off of the load did speak to a correction a temporary correction who’s Lowe’s were likely to Beaver tested so we’re still getting a benefit of the doubt to the two or three-week rally two-week rally that ended basically or maybe just paused last Friday as being a temporary corrective bounce before either retesting August Lowe if not actually breaking lower 81 minute chart if not actually breaking under August Lowe into a deeper decline but we do that and just because we reacted down forcibly from it doesn’t mean that it’s totally rejected so what else happened for the rest of the week the gapping down trending down Tuesday Tuesday welcomed us back from the Labor Day weekend at least in the morning pretty aggressively to the downside and then the balance of the session coming out of the after trending down through the noon hour the balance of the session coming out of the noon hour Rally or at least firmed and it wasn’t arbitrarily There’s Tuesday Mornings to climb through the noon hour testing lower prioritize filling a gap testing more lower prioritize holding so lot of constructive stuff was done Tuesday in the pool back in testing this lower prioritize and holding them but they weren’t all held and that is last Wednesday’s High although it’s gap-fill was recovered you see a little detail here this is last Wednesday the Gap was filled the Gap held put that little tail there that high that hire High closing above or seemingly closing above last Wednesday’s I actually wasn’t that was post clothes mostly and it was in any case overlapping so not a clear recovery of that last Pryor High lower Pryor High so we can’t say that Tuesday Mornings decline was necessarily rejected in retrospect after 3 days of training since then we still can’t say that just because of the decline hasn’t resumed from there doesn’t mean that we’ve default into a rally even though that lower Pryor High Tuesday’s close has yet to break lower doesn’t mean that it’s holder this Wednesday that Wednesday open the Gap up actually was all based on overnight trending that’s where the Gap up is overnight movement that’s maintained at the next open there’s been no rally since then there’s been no intraday rally producing anything that hasn’t already been produced like Tuesday afternoon did since Tuesday’s close it was follow through Tuesday night but Wednesday is open has since held as resistance and Tuesday’s close has since held as support that’s distribution that’s distribution here is by the way Thursday afternoon Thursdays late Futures clothes trending up above the cash session the afternoon session High despite the pattern indicating that it slows we were tested maybe the same thing coming on Monday if not Sunday night because this too is post cash session clothes this is Future’s close producing that hire high after yesterday headed to Kaden that we’re going to be breaking lower remember yesterday indicated we’re going to be breaking lower because if not exactly yesterday that it’s coming because overnight action had probed lower overnight action had those sessions as Wednesday and Thursday sessions that I pointed out and done anything yet had extended Thursday afternoons rally it’s chipping away at support then I could have been rejected it’s really didn’t extend it was absorbed through the open by absorbing into the open we knew that at least the morning would be free from trending down not necessarily the afternoon but that could have been rejected this overnight dip chipping away at support of the prior to introduce sessions rejected by closing above the resistance of those prior to introduce sessions it wasn’t and in fact this down trending going back to that pivotal High the high prior to the actual High and their interim low remember that well it’s also look at the actual high now there’s hello there’s a probe of that interim high-end ramlow sorry heading out will lower low and at this point we can now identify this level and we can take this as an anchor and this as a connector and create this extended plane this down trending resistance has that been influential has been predictive it’s been influential there it is as resistance when it breaks higher it’s tested as support the one session that finally tries getting away from it totally detached from it actually doesn’t close any higher than the open and immediately is rejected by gapping back down to that down trending resistance it continues to act as both of magnet and resistance so going to this down trending pivotal resistance we’re still connected to price action and sponsorship and sentiment that originated the heights back here the pivotal High the actual hi back at the heights July August I here’s some more evidence of that that’s if we go to the long blonde there is a long line there is July’s actually July’s I I’m sorry I let me go to we also rolled forward on the long blonde from sap to December let’s go back to the subcontract because back here are first bicycles started triggering as far as a bottom for me first Buy Signal and started forming back here in mid-july before the 17th triggering after the 17th that first warning shot across the bow corrected and then we had more bottoming signals by the end of July beginning of August and the same time frame mid-july you can see the pivotal high in the es and that’s something 500 forming and where the long blonde came back and made a higher low he has his making a higher high Thibodaux high as it turns out and the long Bond being bought up not making a new low is good tell here but the long mine has been rising interest rates have been falling pretty steadily or at least relentlessly and all stocks have done is trade flat to lower so this whole Market since July and even the week before or two has been the same mindset or the same sponsorship the same evaluation questions being worked out the question is whether it is basing weather turns out that this is accumulation backing and filling changing ownership from one perception to another whether this is distribution which is pretty much the same thing the change in ownership but not from one perception to another from stronger hands too weak or hands that changing perception is more shorter term or wrong so we should know soon because just as started saying well first of all because we’re in this distributive range for 3 consecutive days with Tuesday afternoon rally being the only rally of the week and even then it’s off of aloe that although it’s are a size weren’t simultaneously oversold and requiring the retest although there was no unfinished business below at some point especially when it’s reaction up doesn’t extend all but requires a retest there should be a retest we should find out soon because just like Thursday’s indications that it slows we’re going to be were tested in that was delay today we had the same indications from Friday’s ranging perhaps that’s being delay today it’s almost an air pocket here if in fact selling get started under the week slows under these higher priority now though sorry getting ahead of myself coin Empire Pryor live basically 5824 58th if that is actually giving way I expect the character of that break to be pretty aggressive like an air pocket so just gradually creeping lower that’s not going to be very credible when this whole range should really just be broken or slid through very aggressively and then we get a chance to see assuming that that does happen assuming that we’re not launching a rally as the week begins certainly possible as unlikely as it may be based on what I’ve already pointed out there are attractions above there’s a gap back the last Friday’s High it doesn’t have to be filled but could be there’s last Friday’s hi I having attacked but not touched July’s pivotal High but it could be retested doesn’t have to be but could be but if we get a chance instead first to see a retest of Tuesday’s low however that’s Matt weather the market does just start gradually creeping down weather in does hit an air pocket and suddenly as retesting Tuesday’s low then we’ll know based on the outcome of that retest the resolution of that session based on its clothes will know or should know whether this has been basing weather this whole process here has been changing from one strong and perception to another or is it going to happen if we test Tuesday’s low and don’t hold it if we test Tuesday’s low and clothes under any that’s all that’s tested in the same day then we’re looking at a the next down leg underway the next downloading something on the order of here’s one leg to correct where’s the next down like to hear know it’s going to be a new low 2412 could have been 2412 this leg and extended down or this leg at this stage after having refueled so much if in fact we are breaking down if a test of Tuesday’s low doesn’t old 2412 probably doesn’t do it and sub 2400 maybe doesn’t do it either they will retest of Tuesday’s low doesn’t hold there’s Tuesday’s low 2412 sub 2400 these aren’t really down legs at this point two three that’s about the same size that’s not fitting at that point not after such a big hand extended detour versus these two legs something more on the order of this would be like Canada silly with a very dissimilar slope could look very much like that anyway so those are the pass for the outcome of the market at this stagelet’s look at how this compares to other markets of the es the S&P 500 just a cross-section of economy Consolidated this week the last three sections of the holiday shortened week in a Range having Pink Friday trying to down Thursday morning nq’s 100 stocks technology waited but still very liquid more speculative less predictable earnings flows hot performing so there’s that comprable pivotal high or after I pick little high and yes that was followed by an actual High here’s nq’s making a lower high that was a warning sign that we noted at the time head it’s certainly accounted for or participated in the next couple of down legs but it’s recovered back to a fresh I not that it’s extended remember the rule 1 days performance does not make a trend that’s why we need a second day second consecutive sessions confirmation and there wasn’t one on the new high in N kids that’s been holding it’s not been predicted but it’s not been reflecting any great return to speculation and then the Dow which is been similar somewhat similar two smt’s two big down legs has a shallower recovering doesn’t really have a pivotal hi to sort of glided right through that at the end of July but in the past week yes has been stalled at Sophie’s of installed the Dow has been acting relatively weaker it’s also been stalled but at least Friday morning and had some issues that also is not two consecutive sessions that’s been a lot of targeted issues targeted difficulties like Disney big there’s only 30 stocks in the Dow they are more reliable and learning streams and their numbers or more widely followed or predictable we got a second consecutive lower clothes in the down and we’ll be able to consider that the Dow is breaking lower or under greater pressure and if that’s not making a high set up I wouldn’t expect all that in one day write any other questions that’s it on the markets bigger picture as far as opening Sunday night if he has it already indicated and Sunday night starts rallying retest the upper end of the range just keep in mind that has to Outlast the open Cash session open Wendy’s open has to maintain that any prior High tested at the open must be exceeded the 9:45 or else it will held it will left a gap down Gap back to Friday’s close outstanding below I’m just the momentum of being attracted back down to it could forcibly plummet as well through the lower end 2458 lower end of these last 3 days there’s probably no lower Sunday night that can recover If instead prices are dropping Sunday night trending down. Natalie Frazier but in the Europe’s opens that’s been done been there done that if that’s being done again on Sunday night I’d be very confident that that Monday was going to extend down and I just gap down and find a quick low but actually extend down I know but it seems that hopefully not traded just calculated the bank index hi in March lower high in the summer in June July so those lower highs this summer aren’t really matched in the banks here’s Comerica slightly higher high JPM slightly higher hi Morgan Stanley higher high Bank of America came right up to resistance with a lower high who do you want to be short in this group hi guys are the lower hi guys Goldman Sachs lower high so interesting and the whole point to the to the analysis and Barons was Bank stocks are rolling over the market can’t be far behind Netflix very deep and Netflix as possible but the first objective of a recovery anyway when somebody 6 tested don’t think we’ve had two consecutive higher closes above it he has since getting there there’s been 100 close above it but not confirmed by a second consecutive higher close that’s a problem or could be because there’s no requirement to trade any higher there was a gap out here there’s basically a that’s how neutralizers basically a 6184 Trey Smith essentially met so closing under 169 and there’s still room down to 169 that’s not the double lines actually just before that but there’s really no bullets reason to revisit these double dashed lines that are ready and able to pull back to stop that is so prematurely but without fulfilling its potential before recovering so perhaps bouncing prematurely anyway the calculable support here’s 169 there’s just no bullets reason to revisit let alone clothes under 169 but for confirmation say closing under these Double Dash lines 166 basically would suggest that a substantial top is done stay away from that and preferably don’t even dip any deeper than this 175 just resume the rally and new high as would be targeted head and post them now please post any other requests fun 4850 now that 175 for the 161 8 extension of this pattern now that that’s already met Andra test it we can really raise the cell signal the 16350 any other stocks is the time to go ahead and post them hey other stocks to look at here I’ll bring up arnoult Arena pharmaceutical I started pointing it out on this head and shoulders that was breaking higher and then coiling so this back this summer and had a nice surge corrective dip held in the process of a corrective dip and inverted Head and Shoulders or pivotal correction form can see through all this but it has extended higher just call you at 2375 suggest that new rally like is underway volume is a little not much of a concern a little concerned I really want to see much bigger volume number one it’s definitely picked up a number to see bigger volume on the upside than the downside we did have basically some pulled back here into the afternoon but got to a pretty significant level and that’s to test this 25 resistance so I guess you can see it better here at volume should be better needs to be better soon decline because that has put in a significant top so by January what will need to have seen by January really by December is aloe and a rally and what we want to see in December that point is a higher low it is getting a little late for all of that if it’s going to be from a significant level like we were we would want to see that from some historically lower lows yeah if it’s not if it’s not doing all that from say 20 or even lower than it’s probably not a January that candidate at that point is it in free-fall and it’s a really good question it’s a really odd question to be asking mge is well which makes it an even better question is it in free-fall it is in downtrend so we’ve got lower lows and lower highs the question is whether for free fall from me the quiet the answer that with the is hope no longer springing Eternal you know a name like GE is going to find support is going to find as you can see even at support produces some pretty relatively big Rally’s short-term bounces but those don’t amount anything even with their volume expanding so freefall /. These are not the same but capitulation as we approach prior Lowe’s how to expect a free-fall stage of in fact and we knew for a fact that we were going to that GE were going to end here or we’re going to get here freefall would look like this it would break under those longer-term prior Lowe’s and then back and fill and this would be the free-fall stage not on its way to a prior low and not on Breaking the prior low but after failing to recover the prior love that’s where I’d start looking for the free-fall stage any others that we can look at please go ahead and post them now I’m about to do my going once going twice all done if you have any stocks during the week and there’s something specific you need to know about it I definitely have a great rest of the weekend