Saturday Review’s recording (for 6/3/17) …Entrenched.
Has there ever been so much negativity surrounding a market rally? “The last time P/E vs. Interest rates were at this level…” “The last time insider sellers vs. buyers reached this degree…” The last time the percentage of volume was concentrated among this small a portion of stocks…” The last time index gains were attributable to so few stocks…” We get it.
Those data are all correct, of course. But the last time the market rallied to new highs amid such extreme negativity… it kept going. The last time, and every time. At least, in the near term. Or, at least, immediately reversing down proved only temporary.
In fact, this week may launch immediately into a correction. Primary indexes are all simultaneously testing a 62.8% projection of their recent narrow bases. That’s natural resistance. And now that the week has ended with at least two structural developments entrenching the uptrend — confirmed breakout, and new trend extreme close on a Friday — at least one more higher close is required.
Fulfilling that upside requirement may be the most bearish metric possible right now. A bullish scenario would draw upon the counter-intuitive: A correction that renews the spirit of the battered bearish opposition would keep alive the uptrend.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
GDXJ, IBB, GDX, STX, AMGN, CELG, REGN, ETH
Transcript: Tthe last month of the quarter starting now and so we’re going to come back to that just keep everything in mind this is a quarter bu if things start to happen as we enter the final stretch one thing that happened into the final stretch into the end of the second month of the quarter and intuitive women’s Choice report is optimism excessive optimism not necessarily extreme optimism optimism suggest that we’re at a peak Wednesday Wednesdays that position the market to actually Gap up above prize didn’t do it flushed right out and how big is on Wednesday Gap up or maintain a gap up above the upper end of the range but wasn’t rejected the way Wednesday had been again optimism as soon as the bias environment started lapsing rallied the way it would have rallied had the open actually gapped up above prioritize the way the morning would have ran late at the open gapped up above prioritize the way we would have anticipated it Haven but we still had by signals and place and they took off as well the point is though that’s a lot of optimism ahead of and employment situation report and employment Swiss report was anticipated very optimistic Lee as well not just the prior day but overnight until just hours before and then the reaction it was a little excessive that optimism at that point and the reaction took us back down to the overnight ranges low right there despite there being a new glove xtrend extreme that required being tested intraday off in the same day but not always despite that newly created unfinished business above the market the open was in proximity to the overnight low and had that overnight low been broken through the open the market would have broken free from the gravitational pull or the orbit of the overnight High and remember Wednesday back here that would have been the effect the objective being 2150 2250 and that was avoided so is that sellers are not just not strong handed they are Their Own Worst Enemy because they keep making it easier for buyers to step in buyers are excessively out or not not excessively overly optimistic extreme or not right not extremely optimistic but excessively optimistic and we can tell that from the slopes we can tell that from the pullbacks there is no lower low and any of this there’s one overnight and that’s not matched through any other there’s the last low overnight Thursday night fresh low on it you need to to reverse the trend and you don’t get it. Overnight not until intraday is there a pull back when we remove the overnight from the equation move the overnight from the equation I had a Fridays open not even detectable this is what I call a Satchel Paige rally Satchel Paige Kansas City monarchs baseball team famous for saying don’t look back you don’t want to see what’s gaining on you and that’s where this markets at where this leg of this stage of this kind of a market is at it can’t afford correction not a deep one not a complete one it doesn’t have a kind of sponsorship sorb buyers sufficiently so that and still have leftover to resume the rally and so it’s steep gettin It’s Gettin his much distance is a can a head of items so that they don’t reverse the trend by breaking under so it’s because now on just the next hour hour-and-a-half so we know though there’s at least another day of rallying out there because of two reasons one is here’s a multi-session range multi section range not starting last Thursday but between last Thursday and Friday we’ve got two sessions in the same range multi session in fact that extends to three sessions in fact that extends the four sessions this probe below the three sessions opens within the range closes within the range two sessions will suffice but this is a multi-session range that breaks out Thursday afternoon and that is confirmed we want confirmation second consecutive clothes confirms breakout confirm breakouts require at least an eventual third higher close this is entrenched as well because this is a Friday and it’s a new trend high or new trend extreme and other direction on a Friday that to forget about the context of a multi-session ranger the prior session bingo break out this alone these two conditions the new trend extreme and it being a Friday also don’t happen unless the market is just not necessary so sure of One Direction but so unsure of the other direction to such an extent that it produces a new extreme clothes Trend extreme close all time just for that trend but on a Friday and that tells us you can see it on Friday 2399 instead it was 20 for the 250the real value to the next Tire close or I’m sorry too knowing that a higher closes coming is that the next Tire close isn’t so long as Monday doesn’t immediately fulfill that newly created outstanding objective of at least one more higher close so only as Monday and maybe even several days where to begin a pullback correction remember stay away from 2401 7524 e 275 so long as the next leg is already under or the next day is already beginning and pull back the deeper the pull back the more upside that we have a reasonable expectation of getting because there will be an outstanding are close immediately fulfilling that are closed on Monday robs us of that information immediately pulling back give us that information to know look for a spot to get long could be these lower prize 2415 I don’t think so though I don’t think that deep of a pull back if we do get an immediate fullback before resuming the rally and why because we’re in the Satchel Paige face were in the overly optimistic face can’t afford too deep of a pulled back or whatever is behind us we’ll have gained on us we don’t want to see that 1750 up to 24 just eyeballing this we got lower prioritize here from Thursday afternoon 2575 so these are levels that I want to look at it for testing them on a pulled back so negative need jerk reaction to something happens over the weekend or Monday morning in any case we could be on our way to a fresh High clothes and another new High clothes that would satisfy that objective and something to rails that or two rails organically and any case doesn’t produce that fresh High will definitely want to know where we might want to consider buying for that recovery that highly reliable recovery to a fresh dried clothes here’s a bigger picture chart we’ve got Marcus High it’s fullback correction Breakout breakout never got to a fresh eye before correcting or Not Afraid close at least that required any follow-through wasn’t a break out clothes on a new high that’s why that fresh I entered a was so vulnerable to what did follow I’ll be it quickly worked out this continues to be a market that when trending when it tries poking its head out is very vulnerable to abruptly reversing the trend the major moves here are being made mostly from within the range to the upper and and then briefly above it this is one of the first multi-session probes above a prior High in a while so having closed above 24 24 25 next time for noise of 24 4750 up to 24 5525 now there’s another measurement in here we’re kind of removed from it it was more in target range or more in proximity priority yesterday’s open but that would have been too close back under 24 2150 is closing under 20 150 what already start the domino effect some support some lower Pioneer 2415 but start the domino effect of they’re just not being any Escape maybe we get off of 2415 depending on how that’s met if it’s not staged over a couple sessions if it’s quick pull that Band-Aid off cover intraday but we make a couple of lower closes under 24 2158 2415 and the next legs a doozy remember 2399 support really not existent maybe obligatory temporary but that pretty much ends the rally gets his down to 8384 lower and then certainly no bullets reason to revisit this so looking at the markets are stacking up compared to each other the three major indexes that reflect speculation conservative investing and then the control group let’s measure that in terms of percentages so whether or not the base is stable by being lengthy and choppy or whether it’s unstable by being briefed and shallow the percentage Remains the Same and in this case 161 8 lot of resistance their resistance at 6180 no coincidence really that we spent two entire timing windows or an entire time we would have basically into the final half-hour on Thursday fluctuating around the 61 8 if that extends to 6180 pretty much gives us out to 4755 so what’s going on with the speculative kind of different speculative kept poking its head up just another reason why we weren’t looking for a new bear Market we were more expecting at least a correction or and most agrex I should say and q’s don’t lead but they certainly weren’t reflecting that bigger money and there’s only a hundred sides here they tend to be the highest-profile most widely followed among technological including by attack other growth things that cetera and so this is where bigger money has to go because they need to liquidate and the same measurements get us pretty much to 261 8 we take the upper end of the range it’s last relative High but discount that that I’m sorry Wednesday session and q’s already to 261 8th and exceeding so not showing any signs that the speculative fervor is wavering and then the Dow which was a little bit better at completing that correction we don’t even have a last relative hi to measure from that’s it is 61 8 not 161 8 not 261 a projection but just to 61 8th and that’s not to say that the down this is he really has that much more potential upside has some please don’t really have that much more potential upside just because and q’s have outperformed to the tune of 261 this is a normal alignment not specifically to the calculation Advanced going to continue in advance that if it were blindsided with something would likely recover this is a normal relationship again top do you get less attractive to be less attractive to new buyers just something about that ratio during natural ratio that has a psychological effect am a psychological effect so there’s not per Tutti for a pullback but from those levels are not in her sleep on those levels but from those from that relationship where the speculative is leading and the conservative is lagging probably not durable reversal if there is one and it’s some point or reversal that we need to be bought for a retest of the high and that is if the patterns don’t extend anyway and if they do extend any way from these relationships and from these calculations it seems counterintuitive to say that just makes the legs shake Yer or the bases less stable that’s just more of the Satchel Paige Behavior because eventually they all have to turn around and look and some things gaining on it this isn’t it still not at so wouldn’t be surprised to see the week start with an immediate pull back because all three major indexes are at a 68 or derivative and q’s being the only one that’s really exceeding its and then only very late in the day and higher objections to play and higher closes are now at standing that would so we’re going to recover we’re still going to be today or in that regard the last time this happened so so then see price went out against that contact renette contacts against that negativity is really the only indicator that you ever need in the bigger picture between that and following trends making sure that longer-term you’re not short something that’s in an uptrend or getting aggressively invest in something that’s get to break its downtrend those are the bigger picture tools and those bigger picture tools are telling us we haven’t yet talked or if this is part of the top it still has our highs to come which doesn’t tell us what’s going to happen Monday it tells us how to react to the possibilities on Monday any questions about any of that let me know otherwise let’s get into stocks