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Saturday Review’s recording (for md/15) … – If, Then… Market Timing

Saturday Review’s recording (for md/15) …

By Rod David | December 5, 2015 - 12:12 pm

The pre-Thanksgiving correction had ended, but the pre-correction rally had barely resumed. Wednesday’s California incident exploited the vulnerability of a simple correction, and exacerbated its reaction down. ECB and Draghi combined Thursday to deliver a one-two knockout punch provided a one-two punch. But the market was only playing rope-a-dope, and Friday came out swinging through almost every round.

This week’s Saturday Review discusses whether new highs are back in-play, and where a correction should end if another were to appear. No actual boxing was discussed.

 MP4 version   ||   ilinc version

The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
SBUX, NFLX, C, RGLD, OUTR, ABTL, DG (& DLTR), PII

12/05/2015 09:24:47 David B: good morning
12/05/2015 09:24:55 Charles Daniel: hi0
12/05/2015 09:31:48 Mark Glezer: gm
12/05/2015 09:38:47 MK: the terrorists didn’t do it….. the guns did it
12/05/2015 09:44:31 MK: also SPX 200dma was hit
12/05/2015 09:44:35 MK: right as we turned
12/05/2015 09:47:17 MKK: rod why go back to this range
12/05/2015 09:47:26 MKK: if not to probe the ghights
12/05/2015 09:47:27 MKK: highs
12/05/2015 09:52:24 SM: So then, a close below 2060 confirms that yesterday was nothing more than a correction of what may ultimately manifest as a nascent downleg of much larger size?
12/05/2015 09:53:37 MKK: aside from august, stopping and reversing on a dimes don’t repeat and reverse the following days
12/05/2015 09:53:56 MKK: especially when they involve 2-3% moves
12/05/2015 09:54:25 MKK: IMO playing a big decline is a infentessimal probability
12/05/2015 09:54:41 MKK: especially with a week left before volume vanishes
12/05/2015 09:54:55 MKK: Flat to higher is IMO the 95% play
12/05/2015 09:55:30 MKK: bad spelling
12/05/2015 09:56:11 MKK: just feel like everyone is still looking for a big delicne
12/05/2015 09:56:15 MKK: decline
12/05/2015 09:56:19 MKK: so its not going to happen
12/05/2015 09:58:05 Mark Glezer: mayba a big decline now needs to be triggered by bad news that does persist for a few days & that is not very likely
12/05/2015 09:59:50 SM: My contraran indicators are kicking in. The ‘opinions’ always get stronger at major turning points.
12/05/2015 10:00:57 MKK: SBUX
12/05/2015 10:00:59 MKK: you rock
12/05/2015 10:01:03 MKK: i covered on thursday
12/05/2015 10:01:06 MKK: about 60%
12/05/2015 10:01:34 David B: NFLX,C
12/05/2015 10:02:42 MKK: RGLD
12/05/2015 10:02:48 MKK: OUTR
12/05/2015 10:02:56 MKK: ABTL
12/05/2015 10:03:17 MKK: DG
12/05/2015 10:03:46 MKK: at 59.50
12/05/2015 10:03:53 MKK: where i covered
12/05/2015 10:04:35 MKK: back under 60?
12/05/2015 10:04:41 MKK: i’m not going to add on strength
12/05/2015 10:04:47 MKK: i’ll add on weakness
12/05/2015 10:07:00 MKK: this stock is mind blowing
12/05/2015 10:07:04 MKK: exactly
12/05/2015 10:11:59 MKK: correlations are all 1
12/05/2015 10:12:02 MKK: haha
12/05/2015 10:13:44 David B: some of the commodity stocks that are down big this year will you be disccussing some january effect candidates?
12/05/2015 10:16:42 MKK: nothing new
12/05/2015 10:16:43 MKK: sorry
12/05/2015 10:16:46 MKK: carry on
12/05/2015 10:17:15 MKK: imo seems optimistic
12/05/2015 10:17:24 MKK: yea
12/05/2015 10:17:27 MKK: my thoughts too
12/05/2015 10:17:35 MKK: ok
12/05/2015 10:18:33 David B: its seems if the fed was going to raise rates you would think the bond market would be declining yet it rallied yesterday with stocks. does the market still believe the fed will not raise rates as agressively?
12/05/2015 10:18:49 MKK: PII
12/05/2015 10:19:28 David B: and gold rallied also
12/05/2015 10:23:09 MKK: getting nervous about this reaction from the high
12/05/2015 10:28:07 MKK: yes
12/05/2015 10:28:08 MKK: we did
12/05/2015 10:28:12 MKK: at 62.50
12/05/2015 10:28:22 MKK: yup
12/05/2015 10:28:32 MKK: sigh… i covered at 65.50
12/05/2015 10:28:35 MKK: sorry
12/05/2015 10:28:35 MKK: sold
12/05/2015 10:28:37 MKK: at 65.50
12/05/2015 10:28:42 MKK: before earnings
12/05/2015 10:28:50 MKK: eanrnings were 2 daysa go
12/05/2015 10:28:50 MKK: yes
12/05/2015 10:29:05 MKK: yes thurs preopen
12/05/2015 10:30:25 MKK: gotcha
12/05/2015 10:31:02 Mark Glezer: ABTL – what would be your sell trigger & a target?
12/05/2015 10:31:25 MKK: yes it is
12/05/2015 10:31:27 MKK: its fdo
12/05/2015 10:31:31 MKK: yes
12/05/2015 10:31:32 Mark Glezer: yes
12/05/2015 10:31:47 MKK: oh wait
12/05/2015 10:31:52 MKK: didn’t hey get taken private?
12/05/2015 10:32:16 MKK: they are now DLTR
12/05/2015 10:33:56 MKK: i love that
12/05/2015 10:33:58 Mark Glezer: thx much
12/05/2015 10:34:02 MKK: i dropped shorting PII
12/05/2015 10:34:14 MKK: early last year
12/05/2015 10:34:29 MKK: grrr
12/05/2015 10:34:41 MKK: shorted from 80-90
12/05/2015 10:34:47 MKK: 110-120
12/05/2015 10:34:57 MKK: 135-150
12/05/2015 10:35:01 MKK: and then gave up
12/05/2015 10:35:03 MKK: and now
12/05/2015 10:35:06 MKK: it turns
12/05/2015 10:35:29 MKK: lots of money lost
12/05/2015 10:36:12 MKK: lower targets
12/05/2015 10:36:19 MKK: ok
12/05/2015 10:36:19 MKK: thanks
12/05/2015 10:36:35 MKK: i’ll sell some jan 80 puts
12/05/2015 10:38:00 MKK: had connectivity issues yesterday
12/05/2015 10:38:06 David B: thanks
12/05/2015 10:38:25 MKK: yeah
12/05/2015 10:38:27 MKK: probably me
12/05/2015 10:38:35 MKK: well
12/05/2015 10:38:40 MKK: have a good weekend

Posted in Bigger Picture, Saturday Review