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Slow-played and choppy. – If, Then… Market Timing

Slow-played and choppy.

Restrained optimism absorbs a big dip.

The open”s rally up to 2084.50 stopped short of even threatening the morning”s bias-up signal. Because yesterday afternoon”s buyers didn”t gain traction, testing the bias-up signal would have been unlikely to trigger, and its failed test would have required retesting overnight lows. So, the morning peaked there as was expected.

Its reaction down testing 2077.00 by 1 point was as deep as allowable without reversing the trend down. The choppy morning was expected, but it wasn”t required to fully utilize its pullback limit. Regardless, the pullback limit”s test held.

Two reasons tell us the pullback limit”s test held. First, it was recovered before the bias environment began lapsing at 11:30. Second, its recovery attacked the open”s highs back in positive territory.

None of which means the choppiness is about to end. It”s influence remains likely through the noon hour, and probably well into the afternoon”s bias environment. In fact, a sudden 4-1/2 point downdraft just took 1-minute RSI oversold.

Even when the restrained bullish choppiness is likely to start waning this afternoon, there is still no requirement to trend — only a vulnerability to trend up to new highs into the weekend.