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Stretching optimism. – If, Then… Market Timing

Stretching optimism.

Bullish can mean there’s room for a pullback.

es_091615_noonThis morning’s noN-bias environment extended above its 1972.00 bias-up signal before the bias environment began lapsing. And it extended quickly. So quickly that this morning’s 1977.00 bias-up target was exceeded at the bias environment’s exit.

The noon hour extended even higher to 1983.75, where both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs diverged negatively. Reacting down overlapped the 1979.50 bias-up signal within 3 minutes of 1:20 to invoke the grace period. The bias signal barely avoided triggering.

The expectation for probing above 1985.00 remains intact. It’s this afternoon’s bias-up target, and bias-up wasn’t rejected so decisively as to prevent one more fresh high. Back above 1980.25 would be credible for starting that move — above 1985.00 would target 1996.00 — as expiration’s influence seem one-sided.

But having come already within 5 ticks of fulfilling 1985.00 on the same leg that fulfilled 1977.00, beware of a deeper pullback. That’s still likely only to refuel buyers for higher highs, but the buying that’s not position-jockeying ahead of expiration is optimism, and that’s getting a little stretched.