Sunday Review — holiday, payrolls, Bitcoin.

There’s no Saturday Review this weekend, but there’s still a few major points to consider for the upcoming week…

Holiday week — Independence Day is on Wednesday, and Tuesday is an early close. That’s odd, 3-day weekends are much more common among U.S. exchanges. Be careful not to force a trade, because it’s difficult to generate sponsorship for trending. So, consider giving reversals more credibility than breakout attempts.

Employment Situation week — Injecting this high-profile report into  holiday shortened/interrupted week can have unusual reactions. The same may be said for Thursday’s FOMC Minutes, which isn’t usually released this late in the week.

Bitcoin, et al — The pattern’s latest downleg was defined before it began as an ongoing series of aggressive downlegs interspersed with tempered uplegs. And we would know that was ending if their roles were reversed, which was almost the case last Sunday (first arrow on nearby chart).  The decline hasn’t worsened since then, and now another big upleg appeared late Saturday. I’m giving Bitcoin — and Ethereum — a benefit of the doubt that the reversal is developing. This may be premature, and the pattern still needs confirmation of more strong uplegs. The alternative is another steep downbar.

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