The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Perhaps it was probably the afternoon”s impending FOMC Minutes release that kept Wednesday morning within a choppy 2089.00-2094.50 sideways range. If so, then the same inhibition prevented the gap down from extending. Extending down wasn”t likely, anyway — but neither the favorable knee-jerk reaction to FOMC nor its follow-up did more than probe momentarily into positive territory at 2097.00.

Overnight action”s new info…
Narrow ranging down to 2093.25 plunged ahead of Europe”s opens, probing yesterday”s low down to 2087.25. Recovering back to 2093.25 suddenly surged 6 points to 2099.50 on news that Greece officially requested a loan extension, and that the ECB saw it as a positive sign. Wait, there”s more. Germany rejected the request, triggering an even faster 9-1/2 point plunge to 2090.00. So, it”s going to be one of those days.

If, then…
The more recent plunge is a 61.8% extension of the original surge”s measurement. It”s calculable support. Not that it must hold, but it allows the reaction down to be only a temporary correction that recovers to higher highs. And, why not, since Grexit may be resolved in principle very soon. Greece seems conciliatory, ECB seems agreeable, and Germany is keeping the tit-for-tat lively. The market had better agree quickly, because the next leg down would be much bigger than 9-1/2 points. Not coincidentally, the plunge”s extremes are defined by this morning”s bias signals, and breaking one would likely trend.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2087.00 would make the 2090.75 bias-down signal likely to trigger at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2094.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Above 2096.50 would be likely at least to test the 2099.75 bias-up signal, which won”t be any likelier to trigger without also already recovering above 2101.50.