The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Monday”s fifth consecutive gap down triggered the bias-down signal for the second time, but without already having fulfilled its target like Friday had. That still didn”t suffice for sellers to take control, as the signal was invalidated by exiting the bias environment above the open”s high. Despite having absorbed sellers, buyers never left negative territory — not until the last half-hour”s surge back to Friday”s 2108.50 high. The surge reversed yet another probe under 2101.50 support which I was expecting to drop by as much. Oversold RSIs were left outstanding.

Overnight action”s new info…
Monday”s choppy 7-8 point session was relatively narrow compared to Friday”s 26-point range. Last night”s 3-point range was narrower. Both share the same high, 1 tick short of Friday”s highs.

If, then…
“Ineffectual pessimism”? Hovering at the highs without either probing above them or reacting down eventually makes higher highs obligatory. That is, buyers must be rewarded for their effort. But that reward isn”t necessary substantial or durable, not unless another dip were to develop first. The anti-Grexit headlines have taken the lead from yesterday”s worrisome delay in Greece”s announced reforms.” The new source of anxiousness is FOMC Chair Yellen”s Senate testimony, whose remarks are normally embargoed until 10:00am.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2111.00 would make the 2108.50 bias-up signal likely to trigger at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2104.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up, and under 2101.50 would be likely to trigger the 2102.50 bias-down signal.