The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Wednesday”s modest gap down probed under the overnight slide down to 2108.75, but didn”t extend it, essentially requiring a retest of Tuesday afternoon”s 2115.75 high. Since Tuesday afternoon”s high had been flawed by failing to hold above the morning”s 2114.25 high, it would be doomed to failure of some sort. In fact, despite probing new highs up to 2117.75, the afternoon”s bias environment was exited back in the noon hour”s 2112.75-2114.75 range, and the final hour was entered below it. The morning”s low was retested down to 2107.25, bouncing to 2112.50 ahead of the close. Overbought RSIs were left outstanding at the high.

Overnight action”s new info…
Firming to within 1 tick of yesterday”s 2114.75 noon hour high was suddenly reversed back down to within 1 tick of the Globex open”s 2109.75 low. The reversal was retraced entirely, back into a 3-hour 2112.75-2114.75 range that just tried breaking 1 point lower.

If, then…
Yesterday afternoon”s plunge has been retraced back to yesterday”s noon hour high, where we expected this morning”s open to print. Of course, the open is another two hours away, with much news coming before then. A retest of yesterday”s high remains likely today so long as the open isn”t reversing yesterday”s late bounce.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2117.25 would be likely to trigger the 2115.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2112.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2106.25 bias-down signal. Bias-down would likely trigger if the open were exited under 2104.25.