The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
The topping indicated Tue-Wed while probing new highs was followed by Thursday”s entire session being spent in negative territory. The post-open dip to 2103.75 was retraced entirely back up to the 2111.75 opening high, and the afternoon”s lower low at 2101.50 was recovered to 2110.25, but neither recovered positive territory. The setup is called “ineffectual pessimism,” since selling didn”t actually reverse the trend down. Still, sellers were productive when it mattered to gain traction — exiting the bias environment under the noon hour”s low and entering the final hour even lower. They also left oversold RSIs outstanding at Thursday”s 2101.50 low.

Overnight action”s new info…
Thursday”s late bounce was soon retraced down to 2106.00. Price action since then has ranged around it between 2105.25-2108.75

If, then…
Will yesterday afternoon”s sellers be rewarded for having gained traction? That would give them control of this morning”s bias-environment, whether just probing under the open all morning, or actually trying to trend under yesterday”s low. It”s not yet too late for a rally effort that gaps up above yesterday”s highs to invalidate yesterday afternoon”s sellers, but it will be too late soon. After opening flat-to-lower, this morning”s only remaining path higher would be to duplicate Tuesday”s late rally — its effort would be doomed to failure, as Tuesday”s effort finally failed Wednesday. But patient sellers squeezing out the last bit of weak-handed buying wouldn”t be inappropriate for the topping process.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2101.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2102.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2115.25 would be likely to trigger the 2112.75 bias-up signal.